In October 2024, the Sahm recession indicator was 0.43, a slight decrease from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (MSCRECDM) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-08-31 about G7, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (USARECDP) from 1947-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Canada - Recession Indicators: 62 years of historical data from 1960 to 2022.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for China from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (CHNRECP) from Jan 1978 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and China.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in September of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1993 and a record low of 0.00000 in October of 1993. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

Stagflation (stagnation and inflation in one word) depicts a time period when an economy is not only suffering from a recession (declining GDP), but high unemployment and inflation rates as well. Usually unemployment and inflation are inversely related, which makes stagflation a rare occurrence. It first happened in the 1970s, when OPEC put an oil embargo on the United States, resulting in oil prices skyrocketing to three times the standard value at that time. As of September 2023, the price of oil fell by 20 percent in comparison to last year after having increased by 76 perent as a result of Russian invasion of Ukraine. The has been signs of stagflation in some countries through 2022 and 2023, but falling inflation rates indicate that the worst has been avoided.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in May of 1962 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1960. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

OECD + Non-member Economies - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD and Non-member Economies from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in February of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD + Non-member Economies - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD and Non-member Economies from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD + Non-member Economies - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD and Non-member Economies from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on May of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD and Non-member Economies from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (OECDNMEREC) from Feb 1960 to Feb 2022 about OECD and Non-OECD, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

United States (DC)Nonfarm Business: Recession Effect Adjustment data was reported at 99.526 1992=100 in 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 99.526 1992=100 for 2022. United States (DC)Nonfarm Business: Recession Effect Adjustment data is updated yearly, averaging 100.000 1992=100 from Dec 1949 (Median) to 2023, with 75 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 1992=100 in 2009 and a record low of 99.526 1992=100 in 2023. United States (DC)Nonfarm Business: Recession Effect Adjustment data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.A130: NIPA 2018: Potential Gross Domestic Product: Projection.

OECD based Recession Indicators for NAFTA Area from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for NAFTA Area from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in April of 1947 and a record low of 0.00000 in November of 1949. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for NAFTA Area from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

The UK economy grew by 0.2 percent in March 2025 after reporting 0.5 percent growth in February. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around four percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.

Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Trough was 1.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in February of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

The Covid-19 pandemic saw growth fall by 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent the year before. The last time the real GDP growth rates fell by a similar level was during the Great Recession in 2009, and the only other time since the Second World War where real GDP fell by more than one percent was in the early 1980s recession. The given records began following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, and GDP growth fluctuated greatly between the Great Depression and the 1950s, before growth became more consistent.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (OECDEUROPERECDM) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-08-31 about OECD Europe, peak, trough, recession indicators, and Europe.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Germany from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (DEURECP) from Feb 1960 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and Germany.