In October 2024, the Sahm recession indicator was 0.43, a slight decrease from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (USRECDP) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-07-10 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index was 6.80000 Percentage Points in October of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index reached a record high of 100.00000 in April of 2020 and a record low of 0.00000 in July of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and June 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative **** percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at ***** percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of ** daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

Probability of Recession: United States data was reported at 0.995 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.031 % for Feb 2025. Probability of Recession: United States data is updated monthly, averaging 1.564 % from Jan 1980 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 543 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 87.972 % in May 2020 and a record low of 0.021 % in Jan 1980. Probability of Recession: United States data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table US.S002: Probability of Recession.

The series assigns dates to U.S. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data. Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%.

For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data was reported at 6.800 % Point in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.300 % Point for Sep 2024. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data is updated quarterly, averaging 7.900 % Point from Dec 1967 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 229 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % Point in Jun 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % Point in Sep 2020. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S094: GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index.

United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 0.48% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in March of 2020 and a record low of 0.00 in November of 1967. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

The economy of the United Kingdom shrank by 0.3 percent in April 2025, after growing by 0.2 percent in March 2025. As of the most recent month, the UK economy is around 4.2 percent larger than it was in February 2020, just before the start of COVID-19 lockdowns. After a record 19.6 percent decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy quickly returned to growth in the following months, and grew through most of 2021. Cost of living crisis lingers into 2025 As of December 2024, just over half of people in the UK reported that their cost of living was higher than it was in the previous month. Although this is a decline from the peak of the crisis in 2022 when over 90 percent of people reported a higher cost of living, households are evidently still under severe pressure. While wage growth has outpaced inflation since July 2023, overall consumer prices were 20 percent higher in late 2024 than they were in late 2021. For food and energy, which lower income households spend more on, late 2024 prices were almost 30 percent higher when compared with late 2021. According to recent estimates, living standards, as measured by changes in disposable income fell by 2.1 percent in 2022/23, but did start to grow again in 2023/24. Late 2023 recession followed by growth in 2024 In December 2023, the UK economy was approximately the same size as it was a year earlier, and struggled to achieve modest growth throughout that year. Going into 2023, a surge in energy costs, as well as high interest rates, created an unfavorable environment for UK consumers and businesses. The inflationary pressures that drove these problems did start to subside, however, with inflation falling to 3.9 percent in November 2023, down from a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although relatively strong economic growth occurred in the first half of 2024, with GDP growing by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent in the first two quarters of the year, zero growth was reported in the third quarter of the year. Long-term issues, such as low business investment, weak productivity growth, and regional inequality, will likely continue to hamper the economy going forward.

United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in July of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator reached a record high of 1.00000 in April of 1969 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1968. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Pono Capital Three: Recession Relief on the Horizon? (PTHR)

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

The gross domestic product (GDP) of all G7 countries decreased sharply in 2009 and 2020 due to the financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. The growth decline was heavier after the COVID-19 pandemic than the financial crisis. Moreover, Italy had a negative GDP growth rate in 2012 and 2013 following the euro crisis. In 2023, Germany experienced an economic recession.

The statistic shows the growth rate of Australia’s real GDP from 2020 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2024, GDP in Australia grew by about 1.04 percent on the previous year.The recession-proof land down underGDP is one of the primary indicators used to gauge the state and health of a country’s economy. It is the total market value of all final goods and services that have been produced within a country in a given period of time, usually a year. GDP figures allow us to understand a country’s economy in a clear way. Real GDP, in a similar vein, is also a very useful indicator; this is a measurement that takes prices changes (inflation and deflation) into account, therefore acting as a key indicator for economic growth.The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in Australia has, for sometime, been able to get a steady foothold in the somewhat shaky post-recession world, shaky, but far from catastrophic. The annual growth rate between the 2008 and 2009 financial years, for example, a time at which the world was brought to its proverbial knees, saw growth rates down under reach to 2.49 and 1.37 percent respectively on the previous years, whereas the GDP growth rate in the United States plummeted well into the minus zone. Australia, like all other capitalist nations, is at the mercy of international markets, and when the world economy takes a hit, it would be foolish to suggest it could emerge fully unscathed. However, Australia has earned some much deserved praise and attention owing to the fact that it has managed to remain recession-free for the past twenty years. This could be thanks to its abundance of raw materials, the Australian mining boom, the fact the recession came at a time of high commodity prices and, maybe most importantly, that just under a third of its exports go to China.

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US Residential Construction Market Size 2025-2029

The US residential construction market size is forecast to increase by USD 242.9 million at a CAGR of 4.5% between 2024 and 2029.

The Residential Construction Market in the US is experiencing significant growth driven by increasing household formation rates and a rising focus on sustainability in new projects. According to the latest data, household formation is projected to continue growing at a steady pace, fueling the demand for new residential units. This trend is particularly evident in urban areas, where population growth and limited space for new development are driving up demand. Meanwhile, the emphasis on sustainability in residential construction is transforming the market landscape. With consumers increasingly prioritizing energy efficiency and eco-friendly features in their homes, builders and developers are responding by incorporating green technologies and sustainable materials into their projects.
This shift not only appeals to environmentally-conscious consumers but also offers long-term cost savings and regulatory compliance benefits. However, the market is not without challenges. Skilled labor shortages continue to pose a significant hurdle for large-scale residential real estate projects. The ongoing shortage of skilled laborers, including carpenters, electricians, and plumbers, is driving up labor costs and delaying project timelines. To mitigate this challenge, some builders are exploring alternative solutions, such as modular construction and automation, to streamline their operations and reduce their reliance on traditional labor sources. The Residential Construction Market in the US presents significant opportunities for companies seeking to capitalize on the growing demand for new housing units and the shift towards sustainability.
However, navigating the challenges of labor shortages and rising costs will require innovative solutions and strategic planning. By staying informed of market trends and adapting to evolving consumer preferences, companies can effectively position themselves for success in this dynamic market.

What will be the size of the US Residential Construction Market during the forecast period?

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The residential construction market in the United States continues to exhibit dynamic activity, driven by various economic factors. Housing supply remains a key focus, with ongoing discussions surrounding the affordable housing trend and efforts to increase inventory, particularly for single-family homes and new constructions. Mortgage and federal funds rates have an impact on residential investment, with fluctuations influencing buyer decisions and construction costs. The labor market plays a crucial role, as workforce availability and wages affect both housing starts and cancellation rates. Inflation and interest rates, monitored closely by the Federal Reserve, also shape the market's direction. Recession risks and economic conditions influence construction spending across various sectors, including multifamily and single-family homes.
Federal programs, such as housing choice vouchers and fair housing initiatives, continue to support home buyers and promote equitable housing opportunities. Building permits and housing starts serve as essential indicators of market health and future growth, with some sectors experiencing double-digit growth. Overall, the residential construction market in the US remains a significant economic driver, shaped by a complex interplay of economic, demographic, and policy factors.

How is this market segmented?

The market research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD million' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Product

  Apartments and condominiums
  Luxury Homes
  Other types


Type

  New construction
  Renovation


Application

  Single family
  Multi-family


Construction Material

  Wood-framed
  Concrete
  Steel
  Modular/Prefabricated


Geography

  US

By Product Insights

The apartments and condominiums segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

The residential construction market in the US is experiencing growth in both the apartment and condominium sectors, driven by the increasing trend toward urbanization and changing lifestyle preferences. Apartments, typically owned by property management companies, and condominiums, with individually owned units within a larger complex, contribute significantly to the market. The Federal Reserve's influence on the economy through the federal funds rate and mortgage rates impacts borrowing rates and home construction activity. The affordability of housing, particularly for younger generations, is a concern due to factors such as inflation, labor market conditions, and savings