Key information about House Prices Growth

• Slovenia house prices grew 7.9% YoY in Sep 2024, following an increase of 6.7% YoY in the previous quarter.
• YoY growth data is updated quarterly, available from Mar 2008 to Sep 2024, with an average growth rate of 4.8%.
• House price data reached an all-time high of 17.0% in Mar 2022 and a record low of -12.6% in Sep 2009.

Companies operating in the third-party real estate industry have had to navigate numerous economic headwinds in recent years, notably rising interest rates, spiralling inflation and muted economic growth. Revenue is projected to sink at a compound annual rate of 0.6% over the five years through 2025, including an estimated jump of 1.2% in 2025 to €207.6 billion, while the average industry profit margin is forecast to reach 35.1%. Amid spiralling inflation, central banks across Europe ratcheted up interest rates, resulting in borrowing costs skyrocketing over the two years through 2023. In residential markets, elevated mortgage rates combined with tightening credit conditions eventually ate into demand, inciting a drop in house prices. Rental markets performed well when house prices were elevated (2021-2023), being the cheaper alternative for cash-strapped buyers. However, even lessors felt the pinch of rising mortgage rates, forcing them to hoist rent prices to cover costs and pricing out potential buyers. This led to a slowdown in rental markets in 2023, weighing on revenue growth. However, this has started to turn around in 2025 as interest rates have been falling across Europe in the two years through 2025, reducing borrowing costs for buyers and boosting property transactions. This has helped revenue to rebound slightly in 2025 as estate agents earn commission from property transactions. Revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 3.7% over the five years through 2030 to €249.5 billion. Housing prices are recovering in 2025 as fixed-rate mortgages begin to drop and economic uncertainty subsides, aiding revenue growth in the short term. Over the coming years, PropTech—technology-driven innovations designed to improve and streamline the real estate industry—will force estate agents to adapt, shaking up the traditional real estate sector. A notable application of PropTech is the use of AI and data analytics to predict a home’s future value and speed up the process of retrofitting properties to become more sustainable.

The Direct Real Estate Activities industry have come up against numerous headwinds in recent years, ranging from the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 to the high base rate environment in the years since, which has inflated borrowing costs for potential buyers. This is a sharp contrast to the ultra-low interest environment seen over the decade following the 2008 financial crisis. Still, revenue is forecast to edge upwards at a compound annual rate of 0.6% over the five years through 2025 to €622.9 billion, including an anticipated rise of 0.8% in 2025. Despite weak revenue growth, profitability remains strong, with the average industry profit margin standing at an estimated 18.9% in 2025. Central banks across Europe adopted aggressive monetary policy in the two years through 2023 in an effort to curb spiralling inflation. This ratcheted up borrowing costs and hit the real estate sector. In the residential property market, mortgage rates picked up and hit housing transaction levels. However, the level of mortgage rate hikes has varied across Europe, with the UK experiencing the largest rise, meaning the dent to UK real estate demand was more pronounced. Commercial real estate has also struggled due to inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions and rising rates. Alongside this, the market’s stock of office space isn’t able to satisfy business demand, with companies placing a greater emphasis on high-quality space and environmental impact. Properties in many areas haven't been suitable due to their lack of green credentials. Nevertheless, things are looking up, as interest rates have been falling across Europe over the two years through 2025, reducing borrowing costs and boosting the number of property transactions, which is aiding revenue growth for estate agents. Revenue is slated to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.5% over the five years through 2030 to €777.6 billion. Economic conditions are set to improve in the short term, which will boost consumer and business confidence, ramping up the number of property transactions in both the residential and commercial real estate markets. However, estate agents may look to adjust their offerings to align with the data centre boom to soak up the demand from this market, while also adhering to sustainability commitments.

The number of housing units completed in Slovenia increased between 2018 and 2023. That followed a period when housing completions nosedived in the years after 2008. In 2023, roughly 4,900 housing units were built, that was approximauely 600 units higher than the previous year.

In 2019, retail real estate investments in the retail industry accounted for a majority of ** percent of all investments during the year in Slovenia. This was followed by hotel and office real estate investments, which were attributed to a further ** percent combined.

Building contractors and developers depend on various socio-economic factors, including property values, underlying sentiment in the housing market, the degree of optimism among downstream businesses and credit conditions. All of these drivers typically track in line with economic sentiment, with recent economic shocks spurring a difficult period for building contractors and developers. Nonetheless, the enduring need for building services, particularly to tackle housing shortages across the continent, ensures a strong foundation of work. Revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.3% to reach €1.3 trillion over the five years through 2025. Operational and supply chain disruption caused by the pandemic reversed the fortunes of building contractors and developers in 2020, as on-site activity tumbled and downstream clients either cancelled, froze or scaled back investment plans. Aided by the release of pent-up demand and supportive government policy, building construction output rebounded in 2021. Excess demand for key raw materials led to extended lead times during this period, while input costs recorded a further surge as a result of the effects of rapidly climbing energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Soaring construction costs and the impact of interest rate hikes on both the housing market and investor sentiment led to a renewed slowdown in building construction activity across the continent. However, falling inflation and the start of an interest rate cutting cycle have spurred signs of a recovery in new work volumes, supporting anticipated revenue growth of 2.3% in 2025. Revenue is forecast to increase at a compound annual rate of 6.7% to €1.7 trillion over the five years through 2030. Activity is set to remain sluggish in the medium term, as weak economic growth and uncertainty surrounding the impact of the volatile global tariff environment on inflation and borrowing costs continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Contractors and developers will increasingly rely on public sector support, including measures to boost the supply of new housing, as countries seek to tackle severe housing shortages. Meanwhile, the introduction of more stringent sustainability requirements will drive demand for energy retrofits.

Evidenca trga nepremičnin je vzpostavljena z namenom vodenja podatkov o poslih, ki so povezani s prodajo in najemom nepremičnin na območju Republike Slovenije. Po obstoječi zakonodaji - Zakon o množičnem vrednotenju nepremičnin - ZMVN (Uradni list RS, št. 50/2006) in skladno s podzakonskimi akti posredujejo podatke v skupno bazo nepremičninske družbe, notraji, upravne enote, občine in Davčna uprava RS in sicer enkrat mesečno.

Revenue is forecast to contract at a compound annual rate of 2.8% over the five years through 2024 to €239.9 billion. Since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic, weak economic conditions have restricted the number of new projects coming to fruition, hindering the number of big-ticket tender opportunities available for electricians to bid for and obtain. Businesses have remained cautious amid an uncertain economic outlook, opting to preserve cash and postpone or cancel significant construction projects. Over the two years through 2024, inflationary pressures have persisted and retaliatory increases to the base rate have ballooned the cost of borrowing. Despite public funding and support for new residential properties, a cooling housing market has limited demand from property developers. Revenue is expected to dip by 2.5% in 2024. As inflationary pressures subside and business and consumer sentiment rebound, revenue prospects will grow and more large tender opportunities will come to fruition. Businesses will increase spending budgets in line with recovering economic conditions and recovering house prices will spur new opportunities in the residential market, contributing to a recovery in income. Revenue is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.3% over the five years through 2029 to €281.8 billion.

Slovenia Foreign Direct Investment Position: Outward: % of Total (FDI) Foreign Direct Investment: Total: Real Estate Activities data was reported at 0.284 % in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.803 % for 2022. Slovenia Foreign Direct Investment Position: Outward: % of Total (FDI) Foreign Direct Investment: Total: Real Estate Activities data is updated yearly, averaging 2.337 % from Dec 2009 (Median) to 2023, with 15 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.152 % in 2016 and a record low of 0.284 % in 2023. Slovenia Foreign Direct Investment Position: Outward: % of Total (FDI) Foreign Direct Investment: Total: Real Estate Activities data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Slovenia – Table SI.OECD.FDI: Foreign Direct Investment: % of Total FDI: by Industry: OECD Member: Annual. Reverse investment:Reverse investment in equity (when a direct investment enterprise acquires less than 10% equity ownership in its parent) is treated as portfolio investment. Netting of reverse investment in debt (when a direct investment enterprise extends a loan to its parent) is applied in the recording of total inward and outward FDI transactions and positions. Treatment of debt FDI transactions and positions between fellow enterprises: directional basis according to the residency of the ultimate controlling parent (extended directional principle). Resident Special Purpose Entities (SPEs) do not exist or are not significant and are recorded as zero in the FDI database. Valuation method used for listed inward and outward equity positions: Market value, Own funds at book value. Valuation method used for unlisted inward and outward equity positions: Own funds at book value. Valuation method used for inward and outward debt positions: Nominal value.; FDI statistics are available by geographic allocation, vis-à-vis single partner countries worldwide and geographical and economic zones aggregates. Partner country allocation can be subject to confidentiality restrictions. Geographic allocation of inward and outward FDI transactions and positions is according to the immediate counterparty. Inward FDI positions according to the ultimate counterparty (the ultimate investing country) are also available and publishable. In the dataset 'FDI statistics by parner country and by industry - Summary', inward FDI positions are showed according to the UIC. Intercompany debt between related financial intermediaries, including permanent debt, are excluded from FDI transactions and positions. Direct investment relationships are identified according to the criteria of the Framework for Direct Investment Relationships (FDIR) method. Debt between fellow enterprises are completely covered. Collective investment institutions are not covered as direct investment enterprises. Non-profit institutions serving households are covered as direct investors. FDI statistics are available by industry sectors according to ISIC4 classification. Industry sector allocation can be subject to confidentiality restrictions. Inward FDI transactions and positions are allocated to the activity of the resident direct investment enterprise. Outward FDI transactions are allocated according to the activity of the non resident direct investment enterprise. Outward FDI positions are allocated according to the activity of the non resident direct investment enterprise. Statistical unit: Enterprise.