South Africa is the sixth African country with the largest population, counting approximately 60.5 million individuals as of 2021. In 2023, the largest city in South Africa was Cape Town. The capital of Western Cape counted 3.4 million inhabitants, whereas South Africa's second largest city was Durban (eThekwini Municipality), with 3.1 million inhabitants. Note that when observing the number of inhabitants by municipality, Johannesburg is counted as largest city/municipality of South Africa.

From four provinces to nine provinces

Before Nelson Mandela became president in 1994, the country had four provinces, Cape of Good Hope, Natal, Orange Free State, and Transvaal and 10 “homelands” (also called Bantustans). The four larger regions were for the white population while the homelands for its black population. This system was dismantled following the new constitution of South Africa in 1996 and reorganized into nine provinces. Currently, Gauteng is the most populated province with around 15.9 million people residing there, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 11.68 million inhabiting the province. As of 2022, Black African individuals were almost 81 percent of the total population in the country, while colored citizens followed amounting to around 5.34 million.

A diverse population

Although the majority of South Africans are identified as Black, the country’s population is far from homogenous, with different ethnic groups usually residing in the different “homelands”. This can be recognizable through the various languages used to communicate between the household members and externally. IsiZulu was the most common language of the nation with around a quarter of the population using it in- and outside of households. IsiXhosa and Afrikaans ranked second and third with roughly 15 percent and 12 percent, respectively.

Cairo, in Egypt, ranked as the most populated city in Africa as of 2025, with an estimated population of over 23 million inhabitants living in Greater Cairo. Kinshasa, in Congo, and Lagos, in Nigeria, followed with some 17.8 million and 17.2 million, respectively. Among the 15 largest cities in the continent, another one, Kano, was located in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. Population density trends in Africa As of 2023, Africa exhibited a population density of 50.1 individuals per square kilometer. Since 2000, the population density across the continent has been experiencing a consistent annual increment. Projections indicated that the average population residing within each square kilometer would rise to approximately 58.5 by the year 2030. Moreover, Mauritius stood out as the African nation with the most elevated population density, exceeding 627 individuals per square kilometre. Mauritius possesses one of the most compact territories on the continent, a factor that significantly influences its high population density. Urbanization dynamics in Africa The urbanization rate in Africa was anticipated to reach close to 45.5 percent in 2024. Urbanization across the continent has consistently risen since 2000, with urban areas accommodating only around a third of the total population then. This trajectory is projected to continue its rise in the years ahead. Nevertheless, the distribution between rural and urban populations shows remarkable diversity throughout the continent. In 2024, Gabon and Libya stood out as Africa’s most urbanized nations, each surpassing 80 percent urbanization. As of the same year, Africa's population was estimated to expand by 2.27 percent compared to the preceding year. Since 2000, the population growth rate across the continent has consistently exceeded 2.3 percent, reaching its pinnacle at 2.63 percent in 2013. Although the growth rate has experienced a deceleration, Africa's population will persistently grow significantly in the forthcoming years.

Population in largest city in South Africa was reported at 6324351 in 2024, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. South Africa - Population in largest city - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on August of 2025.

South Africa ZA: Population in Largest City data was reported at 9,822,625.000 Person in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 9,615,976.000 Person for 2016. South Africa ZA: Population in Largest City data is updated yearly, averaging 3,628,124.500 Person from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9,822,625.000 Person in 2017 and a record low of 2,136,849.000 Person in 1960. South Africa ZA: Population in Largest City data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Africa – Table ZA.World Bank: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Population in largest city is the urban population living in the country's largest metropolitan area.; ; United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects.; ;

Population in the largest city (% of urban population) in South Africa was reported at 14.26 % in 2024, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. South Africa - Population in the largest city - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on August of 2025.

South Africa ZA: Population in Largest City: as % of Urban Population data was reported at 26.327 % in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 26.291 % for 2016. South Africa ZA: Population in Largest City: as % of Urban Population data is updated yearly, averaging 23.218 % from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 26.327 % in 2017 and a record low of 18.806 % in 1991. South Africa ZA: Population in Largest City: as % of Urban Population data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Africa – Table ZA.World Bank: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Population in largest city is the percentage of a country's urban population living in that country's largest metropolitan area.; ; United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects.; Weighted Average;

Johannesburg was the wealthiest city in Africa as of 2021. South Africa's biggest city held *** billion U.S. dollars in private wealth, while Cape Town followed with *** billion U.S. dollars. The country led the ranking of wealthiest nations in Africa. The wealth value referred to assets such as cash, properties, and business interests held by individuals living in each country, less liabilities. Moreover, government funds were excluded.

Abstract

The World Values Survey aims to attain a broad understanding of socio-political trends (i.e. perceptions, behaviour and expectations) among adults across the world.

Geographic coverage

National The sample was distributed as follows: 60% metropolitan (large cities with populations of 250 000+); 40% non-metropolitan (including cities, large towns, small towns, villages and rural areas)

Analysis unit

Individual

Universe

The sample included adults 16 years+ in South Africa

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

The sample had to be representative of urban as well as rural populations. Roughly the distribution was as follows: - South Africa: 60% metropolitan (large cities with populations of 250 000+); 40% non-metropolitan (including cities, large towns, small towns, villages and rural areas).

A standard form of sampling instructions was sent to each agency to ensure uniformity in the sampling procedure. Markinor stratified the samples for each country by region, sex and community size. To this end, statistics and figures that were supplied to us by the agencies were used. However, we requested the agencies to revise these where necessary or where alternatives would be more effective. The agencies then supplied the street names for the urban starting points, and made suggestions for sampling procedures in rural areas where neither maps nor street names were available. From sample-point level, the respondent selection was done randomly according to a selection grid used by Markinor (the first two pages of the master questionnaire).

Substitution was permitted after three unsuccessful calls. Six interviews were conducted at each sample point. The male/female split was 50/50. The urban sample included all community sizes greater than 500 and the rural sample all community sizes less than 500. This is the definition of urban and rural used in South Africa.

Remarks about sampling: -Final numbers of clusters or sampling points: 500 -Sample unit from office sampling: Street Names

Mode of data collection

Face-to-face [f2f]

Research instrument

The WVS questionnaire was translated from the English questionnaire by a specialist translator The translated questionnaire was pre-tested. The pre-tests were part of the general pilots. In total 20 pilots were conducted. The English questionnaire from the University of Michigan was used to make the WVS. Extra questions were added at the end of the questionnaire. Also, country specific questions were included at the end of the questionnaire, just before the demographics.The sample was designed to be representative of the entire adult population, i.e. 18 years and older, of your country. The lower age cut-off for the sample was 16 and there was not any upper age cut-off for the sample.

Cleaning operations

Some measures of coding reliability were employed. Each questionnaire is coded against the coding frame. A minimum of 10% of each coders work is checked to ensure consistency in interpretation. If any discrepancies in interpretation are World Values Survey (1999-2004) - South Africa 2001 v.2015.04.18 discovered, a 100% check is carried out on that particular coders work. Errors were corrected individually and automatically.

Sampling error estimates

The error margins for this survey can be calculated by taking the following factors into account: - all samples were random (as opposed to quota-controlled) - the sample size per country (or segment being analysed) - the substitution rate per country (or segment being analysed) - the rates were recorded on CARD 1; col. 805 of the questionnaire. From the substitution rate, the response rate can be calculated.

In 2024, Pietermaritzburg (South Africa) ranked first in the crime index among African cities, with a rating of roughly ** index points. The six most dangerous areas on the continent were South African cities. The index estimates the overall level of crime in a specific territory. According to the score, crime levels are classified as very high (over 80), high (60-80), moderate (40-60), low (20-40), and very low (below 20). South Africa’s crime situation According to the crime index ranking, ************ was the most dangerous country in Africa in 2023, followed by ***************** and ******. Murder and organized crime are particularly widespread in South Africa. In 2023, the country had one of the highest murder rates globally, registering around ** homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. Moreover, South Africa’s crime scene is also characterized by the presence of organized criminal activities, for which the country ranked third in Africa. Reflecting these high levels of crime, a survey conducted in 2023 showed that around ** percent of South Africans were worried about crime and violence in the country. Crime risks in Africa The African continent hosts some of the most dangerous places worldwide. In 2023, *********** and the ******************************** were the least peaceful countries in Africa, according to the Global Peace Index. Worldwide, they ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, behind Afghanistan, Yemen, and Syria. Terrorism is a leading type of crime perpetrated in Africa. Home to Boko Aram, Nigeria is among the countries with the highest number of terrorism-related deaths globally. Furthermore, Burkina Faso had the highest number of fatalities in the world. Human trafficking is also widespread, predominantly in West Africa. The most common forms of exploitation of victims of trafficking in persons are forced labor and sexual exploitation.

South Africa is the southernmost country in Africa. It covers an area of 1,221,037 square kilometres (471,445 square miles). South Africa has three capital cities: executive Pretoria, judicial Bloemfontein and legislative Cape Town. The largest city is Johannesburg. About 80% of South Africans are of Black African ancestry, divided among a variety of ethnic groups speaking different African languages. The remaining population consists of Africa's largest communities of European (White South Africans), Asian (Indian South Africans and Chinese South Africans), and Multiracial (Coloured South Africans) ancestry.

Source: Objaverse 1.0 / Sketchfab

This horizontal bar chart displays GDP (current US$) by capital city using the aggregation sum in South Africa. The data is about countries per year.

Abstract

The Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) carried out the Migration and Remittances Survey in South Africa for the World Bank in collaboration with the African Development Bank. The primary mandate of the HSRC in this project was to come up with a migration database that includes both immigrants and emigrants. The specific activities included: · A household survey with a view of producing a detailed demographic/economic database of immigrants, emigrants and non migrants · The collation and preparation of a data set based on the survey · The production of basic primary statistics for the analysis of migration and remittance behaviour in South Africa.

Like many other African countries, South Africa lacks reliable census or other data on migrants (immigrants and emigrants), and on flows of resources that accompanies movement of people. This is so because a large proportion of African immigrants are in the country undocumented. A special effort was therefore made to design a household survey that would cover sufficient numbers and proportions of immigrants, and still conform to the principles of probability sampling. The approach that was followed gives a representative picture of migration in 2 provinces, Limpopo and Gauteng, which should be reflective of migration behaviour and its impacts in South Africa.

Geographic coverage

Two provinces: Gauteng and Limpopo

Limpopo is the main corridor for migration from African countries to the north of South Africa while Gauteng is the main port of entry as it has the largest airport in Africa. Gauteng is a destination for internal and international migrants because it has three large metropolitan cities with a great economic potential and reputation for offering employment, accommodations and access to many different opportunities within a distance of 56 km. These two provinces therefore were expected to accommodate most African migrants in South Africa, co-existing with a large host population.

Analysis unit

• Household
• Individual

Universe

The target group consists of households in all communities. The survey will be conducted among metro and non-metro households. Non-metro households include those in: - small towns, - secondary cities, - peri-urban settlements and - deep rural areas. From each selected household, one adult respondent will be selected to participate in the study.

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

Migration data for South Africa are available for 2007 only at the level of local governments or municipalities from the 2007 Census; for smaller areas called "sub places" (SPs) only as recently as the 2001 census, and for the desired EAs only back so far as the Census of 1996. In sum, there was no single source that provided recent data on the five types of migrants of principal interest at the level of the Enumeration Area, which was the area for which data were needed to draw the sample since it was going to be necessary to identify migrant and non-migrant households in the sample areas in order to oversample those with migrants for interview.

In an attempt to overcome the data limitations referred to above, it was necessary to adopt a novel approach to the design of the sample for the World Bank's household migration survey in South Africa, to identify EAs with a high probability of finding immigrants and those with a low probability. This required the combined use of the three sources of data described above. The starting point was the CS 2007 survey, which provided data on migration at a local government level, classifying each local government cluster in terms of migration level, taking into account the types of migrants identified. The researchers then spatially zoomed in from these clusters to the so-called sub-places (SPs) from the 2001 Census to classifying SP clusters by migration level. Finally, the 1996 Census data were used to zoom in even further down to the EA level, using the 1996 census data on migration levels of various typed, to identify the final level of clusters for the survey, namely the spatially small EAs (each typically containing about 200 households, and hence amenable to the listing operation in the field).

A higher score or weight was attached to the 2007 Community Survey municipality-level (MN) data than to the Census 2001 sub-place (SP) data, which in turn was given a greater weight than the 1996 enumerator area (EA) data. The latter was derived exclusively from the Census 1996 EA data, but has then been reallocated to the 2001 EAs proportional to geographical size. Although these weights are purely arbitrary since it was composed from different sources, they give an indication of the relevant importance attached to the different migrant categories. These weighted migrant proportions (secondary strata), therefore constituted the second level of clusters for sampling purposes.

In addition, a system of weighting or scoring the different persons by migrant type was applied to ensure that the likelihood of finding migrants would be optimised. As part of this procedure, recent migrants (who had migrated in the preceding five years) received a higher score than lifetime migrants (who had not migrated during the preceding five years). Similarly, a higher score was attached to international immigrants (both recent and lifetime, who had come to SA from abroad) than to internal migrants (who had only moved within SA's borders). A greater weight also applied to inter-provincial (internal) than to intra-provincial migrants (who only moved within the same South African province).

How the three data sources were combined to provide overall scores for EA can be briefly described. First, in each of the two provinces, all local government units were given migration scores according to the numbers or relative proportions of the population classified in the various categories of migrants (with non-migrants given a score of 1.0. Migrants were assigned higher scores according to their priority, with international migrants given higher scores than internal migrants and recent migrants higher scores than lifetime migrants. Then within the local governments, sub-places were assigned scores assigned on the basis of inter vs. intra-provincial migrants using the 2001 census data. Each SP area in a local government was thus assigned a value which was the product of its local government score (the same for all SPs in the local government) and its own SP score. The third and final stage was to develop relative migration scores for all the EAs from the 1996 census by similarly weighting the proportions of migrants (and non-migrants, assigned always 1.0) of each type. The the final migration score for an EA is the product of its own EA score from 1996, the SP score of which it is a part (assigned to all the EAs within the SP), and the local government score from the 2007 survey.

Based on all the above principles the set of weights or scores was developed.

In sum, we multiplied the proportion of populations of each migrant type, or their incidence, by the appropriate final corresponding EA scores for persons of each type in the EA (based on multiplying the three weights together), to obtain the overall score for each EA. This takes into account the distribution of persons in the EA according to migration status in 1996, the SP score of the EA in 2001, and the local government score (in which the EA is located) from 2007. Finally, all EAs in each province were then classified into quartiles, prior to sampling from the quartiles.

From the EAs so classified, the sampling took the form of selecting EAs, i.e., primary sampling units (PSUs, which in this case are also Ultimate Sampling Units, since this is a single stage sample), according to their classification into quartiles. The proportions selected from each quartile are based on the range of EA-level scores which are assumed to reflect weighted probabilities of finding desired migrants in each EA. To enhance the likelihood of finding migrants, much higher proportions of EAs were selected into the sample from the quartiles with the higher scores compared to the lower scores (disproportionate sampling). The decision on the most appropriate categorisations was informed by the observed migration levels in the two provinces of the study area during 2007, 2001 and 1996, analysed at the lowest spatial level for which migration data was available in each case.

Because of the differences in their characteristics it was decided that the provinces of Gauteng and Limpopo should each be regarded as an explicit stratum for sampling purposes. These two provinces therefore represented the primary explicit strata. It was decided to select an equal number of EAs from these two primary strata.

The migration-level categories referred to above were treated as secondary explicit strata to ensure optimal coverage of each in the sample. The distribution of migration levels was then used to draw EAs in such a way that greater preference could be given to areas with higher proportions of migrants in general, but especially immigrants (note the relative scores assigned to each type of person above). The proportion of EAs selected into the sample from the quartiles draws upon the relative mean weighted migrant scores (referred to as proportions) found below the table, but this is a coincidence and not necessary, as any disproportionate sampling of EAs from the quartiles could be done, since it would be rectified in the weighting at the end for the analysis.

The resultant proportions of migrants then led to the following proportional allocation of sampled EAs (Quartile 1: 5 per cent (instead of 25% as in an equal distribution), Quartile 2: 15 per cent (instead

As of 2023, South Africa's population increased and counted approximately 62.3 million inhabitants in total, of which the majority inhabited Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Western-Eastern Cape. Gauteng (includes Johannesburg) is the smallest province in South Africa, though highly urbanized with a population of over 16 million people according to the estimates. Cape Town, on the other hand, is the largest city in South Africa with nearly 3.43 million inhabitants in the same year, whereas Durban counted 3.12 million citizens. However, looking at cities including municipalities, Johannesburg ranks first. High rate of young population South Africa has a substantial population of young people. In 2024, approximately 34.3 percent of the people were aged 19 years or younger. Those aged 60 or older, on the other hand, made-up over 10 percent of the total population. Distributing South African citizens by marital status, approximately half of the males and females were classified as single in 2021. Furthermore, 29.1 percent of the men were registered as married, whereas nearly 27 percent of the women walked down the aisle. Youth unemployment Youth unemployment fluctuated heavily between 2003 and 2022. In 2003, the unemployment rate stood at 36 percent, followed by a significant increase to 45.5 percent in 2010. However, it fluctuated again and as of 2022, over 51 percent of the youth were registered as unemployed. Furthermore, based on a survey conducted on the worries of South Africans, some 64 percent reported being worried about employment and the job market situation.

Nigeria has the largest population in Africa. As of 2025, the country counted over 237.5 million individuals, whereas Ethiopia, which ranked second, has around 135.5 million inhabitants. Egypt registered the largest population in North Africa, reaching nearly 118.4 million people. In terms of inhabitants per square kilometer, Nigeria only ranked seventh, while Mauritius had the highest population density on the whole African continent in 2023. The fastest-growing world region Africa is the second most populous continent in the world, after Asia. Nevertheless, Africa records the highest growth rate worldwide, with figures rising by over two percent every year. In some countries, such as Chad, South Sudan, Somalia, and the Central African Republic, the population increase peaks at over 3.4 percent. With so many births, Africa is also the youngest continent in the world. However, this coincides with a low life expectancy. African cities on the rise The last decades have seen high urbanization rates in Asia, mainly in China and India. African cities are also growing at large rates. Indeed, the continent has three megacities and is expected to add four more by 2050. Furthermore, Africa's fastest-growing cities are forecast to be Bujumbura, in Burundi, and Zinder, Nigeria, by 2035.

This horizontal bar chart displays suicide mortality rate (per 100,000 population) by capital city using the aggregation average, weighted by population in South Africa. The data is about countries per year.

This horizontal bar chart displays population (people) by continent using the aggregation sum in Southern Africa. The data is about cities.

This horizontal bar chart displays carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) (Mt of CO2 equivalent) by capital city using the aggregation sum in South Africa. The data is about countries per year.

Abstract

The 1970 South African Population Census was an enumeration of the population and housing in South Africa.The census collected data on dwellings and individuals' demographic, migration, family and employment details.

Geographic coverage

National coverage of the so-called white areas of South Africa, i.e. the areas in the former four provinces of the Cape, the Orange Free State, Transvaal, and Natal, and the so-called National States of Ciskei, KwaZulu, Gazankulu, Lebowa, Qwaqwa, Kangwane, Kwandebele, Transkei and Bophuthatswana.

Analysis unit

The units of analysis for the South African Census 1970 were households and individuals

Universe

The South African population census of 1970 covered all de jure household members (usual residents) of South Africa and the "national states".

The Census was enumerated on a de facto basis, that is, according to the place where persons were located during the census. All persons who were present on Republic of South African territory during census night were enumerated and included in the data. Visitors from abroad who were present in the RSA on holiday or business on the night of the census, as well as foreigners (and their families) who were studying or economically active, were not enumerated and included in the figures. Likewise, members of the Diplomatic and Consular Corps of foreign countries were not included. However, the South African personnel linked to the foreign missions including domestic workers were enumerated. Crews and passengers of ships were also not enumerated, unless they were normally resident in the Republic of South Africa. Residents of the RSA who were absent from the night were as far as possible enumerated on their return and included in the region where they normally resided. Personnel of the South African Government stationed abroad and their families were, however enumerated. Such persons were included in the Transvaal (Pretoria).

Kind of data

Census/enumeration data [cen]

Sampling procedure

The 1970 Census was a full count for Whites, Coloureds and Asians, and a 5% sample for Blacks (Africans)

Sampling deviation

The country was divided into 400 census districts for the 1970 Census. In most cases the boundaries of the census districts corresponded with those of the magisterial districts. However, in some cases the boundaries did not correspond, particularly in the areas in and around the "National States". This was to facilitate the administration of the census and to make it easier to exclude figures of the "National states" from provincial totals.

Mode of data collection

Face-to-face [f2f]

Research instrument

The 1970 Population Census of the Republic of South Africa questionnaires were: Form 01, to be completed by "Whites, Coloured and Asiatics" Form 02, to be completed by "Bantu" Form 03, for families, households and dwellings

Form 01 collected data on relationship to household head, population group, sex, age, marital status, place of birth, and citizenship, as well as usual place of residence, home language, religion, level of education and income. Employment data collected included occupation, employment status and industry type.

Form 02 collected data for African South Africans on relationship to household head, sex, age, marital status, fertility, place of birth, home language and literacy, religion and level of education. Employment data collected included occupation, employment status and industry type.

Form 03 collected household data, including data on dwelling type, building material of dwelling walls, number of rooms and age of the dwelling. Data on home ownership. Data was also collected on the number and sex of household members and their relationship to the household head. Data on household heads included their population group, age and marital status. Income data was also collected, for husbands and wives. Data on home ownership, household size and domestic workers was also collected, but for Urban households only.

This horizontal bar chart displays fertility rate (births per woman) by capital city using the aggregation average, weighted by population female in South Africa. The data is about countries per year.

Abstract

The Afrobarometer project assesses attitudes and public opinion on democracy, markets, and civil society in several sub-Saharan African.This dataset was compiled from the studies in Round 3 of the Afrobarometer survey, conducted from 2005-2006 in 18 African countries (Benin, Botswana, Cape Verde, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe).

Geographic coverage

The Afrobarometer surveys have national coverage

Botswana Lesotho Malawi Namibia South Africa Zambia Zimbabwe Ghana Mali Nigeria Tanzania Uganda Cape Verde Mozambique Senegal Kenya Benin Madagascar

Analysis unit

Basic units of analysis that the study investigates include: individuals and groups

Universe

The sample universe for Afrobarometer surveys includes all citizens of voting age within the country. In other words, we exclude anyone who is not a citizen and anyone who has not attained this age (usually 18 years) on the day of the survey. Also excluded are areas determined to be either inaccessible or not relevant to the study, such as those experiencing armed conflict or natural disasters, as well as national parks and game reserves. As a matter of practice, we have also excluded people living in institutionalized settings, such as students in dormitories and persons in prisons or nursing homes.

What to do about areas experiencing political unrest? On the one hand we want to include them because they are politically important. On the other hand, we want to avoid stretching out the fieldwork over many months while we wait for the situation to settle down. It was agreed at the 2002 Cape Town Planning Workshop that it is difficult to come up with a general rule that will fit all imaginable circumstances. We will therefore make judgments on a case-by-case basis on whether or not to proceed with fieldwork or to exclude or substitute areas of conflict. National Partners are requested to consult Core Partners on any major delays, exclusions or substitutions of this sort.

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

A new sample has to be drawn for each round of Afrobarometer surveys. Whereas the standard sample size for Round 3 surveys will be 1200 cases, a larger sample size will be required in societies that are extremely heterogeneous (such as South Africa and Nigeria), where the sample size will be increased to 2400. Other adaptations may be necessary within some countries to account for the varying quality of the census data or the availability of census maps.

The sample is designed as a representative cross-section of all citizens of voting age in a given country. The goal is to give every adult citizen an equal and known chance of selection for interview. We strive to reach this objective by (a) strictly applying random selection methods at every stage of sampling and by (b) applying sampling with probability proportionate to population size wherever possible. A randomly selected sample of 1200 cases allows inferences to national adult populations with a margin of sampling error of no more than plus or minus 2.5 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. If the sample size is increased to 2400, the confidence interval shrinks to plus or minus 2 percent.

Sample Universe

The sample universe for Afrobarometer surveys includes all citizens of voting age within the country. In other words, we exclude anyone who is not a citizen and anyone who has not attained this age (usually 18 years) on the day of the survey. Also excluded are areas determined to be either inaccessible or not relevant to the study, such as those experiencing armed conflict or natural disasters, as well as national parks and game reserves. As a matter of practice, we have also excluded people living in institutionalized settings, such as students in dormitories and persons in prisons or nursing homes.

What to do about areas experiencing political unrest? On the one hand we want to include them because they are politically important. On the other hand, we want to avoid stretching out the fieldwork over many months while we wait for the situation to settle down. It was agreed at the 2002 Cape Town Planning Workshop that it is difficult to come up with a general rule that will fit all imaginable circumstances. We will therefore make judgments on a case-by-case basis on whether or not to proceed with fieldwork or to exclude or substitute areas of conflict. National Partners are requested to consult Core Partners on any major delays, exclusions or substitutions of this sort.

Sample Design

The sample design is a clustered, stratified, multi-stage, area probability sample.

To repeat the main sampling principle, the objective of the design is to give every sample element (i.e. adult citizen) an equal and known chance of being chosen for inclusion in the sample. We strive to reach this objective by (a) strictly applying random selection methods at every stage of sampling and by (b) applying sampling with probability proportionate to population size wherever possible.

In a series of stages, geographically defined sampling units of decreasing size are selected. To ensure that the sample is representative, the probability of selection at various stages is adjusted as follows:

The sample is stratified by key social characteristics in the population such as sub-national area (e.g. region/province) and residential locality (urban or rural). The area stratification reduces the likelihood that distinctive ethnic or language groups are left out of the sample. And the urban/rural stratification is a means to make sure that these localities are represented in their correct proportions. Wherever possible, and always in the first stage of sampling, random sampling is conducted with probability proportionate to population size (PPPS). The purpose is to guarantee that larger (i.e., more populated) geographical units have a proportionally greater probability of being chosen into the sample. The sampling design has four stages

A first-stage to stratify and randomly select primary sampling units;

A second-stage to randomly select sampling start-points;

A third stage to randomly choose households;

A final-stage involving the random selection of individual respondents

We shall deal with each of these stages in turn.

STAGE ONE: Selection of Primary Sampling Units (PSUs)

The primary sampling units (PSU's) are the smallest, well-defined geographic units for which reliable population data are available. In most countries, these will be Census Enumeration Areas (or EAs). Most national census data and maps are broken down to the EA level. In the text that follows we will use the acronyms PSU and EA interchangeably because, when census data are employed, they refer to the same unit.

We strongly recommend that NIs use official national census data as the sampling frame for Afrobarometer surveys. Where recent or reliable census data are not available, NIs are asked to inform the relevant Core Partner before they substitute any other demographic data. Where the census is out of date, NIs should consult a demographer to obtain the best possible estimates of population growth rates. These should be applied to the outdated census data in order to make projections of population figures for the year of the survey. It is important to bear in mind that population growth rates vary by area (region) and (especially) between rural and urban localities. Therefore, any projected census data should include adjustments to take such variations into account.

Indeed, we urge NIs to establish collegial working relationships within professionals in the national census bureau, not only to obtain the most recent census data, projections, and maps, but to gain access to sampling expertise. NIs may even commission a census statistician to draw the sample to Afrobarometer specifications, provided that provision for this service has been made in the survey budget.

Regardless of who draws the sample, the NIs should thoroughly acquaint themselves with the strengths and weaknesses of the available census data and the availability and quality of EA maps. The country and methodology reports should cite the exact census data used, its known shortcomings, if any, and any projections made from the data. At minimum, the NI must know the size of the population and the urban/rural population divide in each region in order to specify how to distribute population and PSU's in the first stage of sampling. National investigators should obtain this written data before they attempt to stratify the sample.

Once this data is obtained, the sample population (either 1200 or 2400) should be stratified, first by area (region/province) and then by residential locality (urban or rural). In each case, the proportion of the sample in each locality in each region should be the same as its proportion in the national population as indicated by the updated census figures.

Having stratified the sample, it is then possible to determine how many PSU's should be selected for the country as a whole, for each region, and for each urban or rural locality.

The total number of PSU's to be selected for the whole country is determined by calculating the maximum degree of clustering of interviews one can accept in any PSU. Because PSUs (which are usually geographically small EAs) tend to be socially homogenous we do not want to select too many people in any one place. Thus, the Afrobarometer has established a standard of no more than 8 interviews per PSU. For a sample size of 1200, the sample must therefore contain 150 PSUs/EAs (1200 divided by 8). For a sample size of 2400, there must be 300 PSUs/EAs.

These PSUs should then be allocated