In 2023, the crude birth rate in live births per 1,000 inhabitants in South Africa was 18.78. Between 1960 and 2023, the figure dropped by 21.04, though the decline followed an uneven course rather than a steady trajectory.

Graph and download economic data for Crude Birth Rate for South Africa (SPDYNCBRTINZAF) from 1960 to 2023 about birth, South Africa, crude, and rate.

In 1925, the crude birth rate in South Africa was just under 49 births per thousand people, meaning that almost five percent of the population was born in that year. This figure would follow the country’s trends in fertility, remaining largely unchanged until the 1950s when, following the implementation of apartheid rule in the country in 1948, declines in fertility from the government's family planning programs would lead to the birth rate's rapid decline. Apart from a brief pause in the early-1980s, births rates would decline throughout the second half of the 20th century, falling to just under 24 births per thousand people by 2000. The crude birth rate would see a brief increase in the early 2000s, largely attributed to a diversion of healthcare funding away from contraceptives to funding for treatments for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the country, but since then, birth rates have resumed their decline, and in 2020, it is estimated that South Africa had a birth rate just under 21 births for every thousand people.

Somalia was the African country with the highest fertility rate in 2023. There, each woman had an average of around 6.1 children in her reproductive years. Fertility levels in Africa remain high despite a steady decline The fertility rate in Africa has gradually decreased since 2000 and is projected to decline further in the coming years. Factors including improved socio-economic conditions and educational opportunities, lower infant mortality, and decreasing poverty levels have driven the declining birth rate on the continent. Nevertheless, Africa remains the continent with the highest fertility rate worldwide. As of 2023, women in Africa had an average of 4.07 children in their reproductive years. Africa was the only continent registering a fertility rate higher than the global average, which was set at 2.4 children per woman. Worldwide, the continent also had the highest adolescent fertility rate as of 2022, with West and Central Africa leading with 105 births per 1,000 girls aged 15 to 19 years. Africa’s population keeps growing According to projections, over 46 million births will be registered in Africa in 2023. Contrary to the declining fertility rate, the absolute number of births on the continent will continue to grow in the coming years to reach around 49.4 million by 2030. In general, Africa’s population – amounting to over 1.48 billion inhabitants as of 2023 – is forecast to increase considerably and achieve 2.5 billion in 2050. Countries such as Niger, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea are key drivers of population growth in Africa, registering the highest average population growth rate on the continent between 2020 and 2025. For instance, in that period, Niger’s population was forecast to expand by 3.7 percent each year.

Actual value and historical data chart for South Africa Birth Rate Crude Per 1 000 People

South Africa ZA: Birth Rate: Crude: per 1000 People data was reported at 20.981 Ratio in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 21.297 Ratio for 2015. South Africa ZA: Birth Rate: Crude: per 1000 People data is updated yearly, averaging 30.616 Ratio from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2016, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 40.222 Ratio in 1960 and a record low of 20.981 Ratio in 2016. South Africa ZA: Birth Rate: Crude: per 1000 People data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Africa – Table ZA.World Bank: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Crude birth rate indicates the number of live births occurring during the year, per 1,000 population estimated at midyear. Subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate provides the rate of natural increase, which is equal to the rate of population change in the absence of migration.; ; (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision. (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.; Weighted average;

In 2024, the fertility rate in Africa was *** children per woman. The average number of newborn infants per woman on the continent decreased compared to 2000, when women had approximately **** children throughout their reproductive years. By 2030, fertility in Africa is projected to decline to around *** births per woman, yet it will remain high. The highest fertility rate worldwide Despite its gradually declining rate, fertility in Africa is the highest in the world. In 2023, the average fertility rate on the continent stood at **** children per woman, compared to a global average of **** births per woman. In contrast, Europe and North America were the continents with the lowest proportion of newborns, each registering a fertility rate below two children per woman. Additionally, Africa records the highest fertility rate among the young female population aged 15 to 19 years. In 2022, West and Central Africa had an adolescent fertility rate of nearly *** children per 1,000 girls, the highest value worldwide. Lower fertility in Northern Africa Fertility levels vary significantly across Africa. In 2023, Somalia, Chad, Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic were the countries with the highest fertility rates on the continent. In those countries, women had an average of over *** children in their reproductive years. The number of adolescent girls giving birth also differed within Africa. For instance, the adolescent fertility rate in North Africa stood at around **** children per 1,000 young women in 2023. On the other hand, Sub-Saharan Africa registered a higher rate of approximately **** children per 1,000 girls as of the same year. In general, higher poverty levels, inadequate social and health conditions, and increased infant mortality are some main drivers of higher fertility rates.

Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) in South Africa was reported at 51.56 % in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. South Africa - Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on November of 2025.

The total fertility rate represents the average number of children that a woman will have over the course of their reproductive years. In South Africa in the early-1920s, the average woman would have 6.5 children over the course of their reproductive years, a rate that would remain fairly constant until 1950. From this point until 2005, South Africa’s fertility rate would drop consistently, and would reach 2.9 children per woman by the beginning of the 21st century. There was a slight increase in fertility in 2005, largely attributed to a diversion of healthcare funding away from contraceptives to funding for treatments for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the country, however, the fertility rate would again decrease in the years following this. In 2020, the total fertility rate for South Africa is estimated to be just 2.41 children per woman, a rate much lower than most other Sub-Saharan countries.

In 2023, the total fertility rate in children per woman in South Africa was 2.22. Between 1960 and 2023, the figure dropped by 3.89, though the decline followed an uneven course rather than a steady trajectory.

South Africa ZA: Completeness of Birth Registration data was reported at 85.000 % in 2012. This records a decrease from the previous number of 92.000 % for 2008. South Africa ZA: Completeness of Birth Registration data is updated yearly, averaging 85.000 % from Dec 2006 (Median) to 2012, with 3 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 92.000 % in 2008 and a record low of 78.000 % in 2006. South Africa ZA: Completeness of Birth Registration data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Africa – Table ZA.World Bank: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Completeness of birth registration is the percentage of children under age 5 whose births were registered at the time of the survey. The numerator of completeness of birth registration includes children whose birth certificate was seen by the interviewer or whose mother or caretaker says the birth has been registered.; ; UNICEF's State of the World's Children based mostly on household surveys and ministry of health data.; Weighted average;

A flexible model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates: Sub-saharan Africa case study

The fertility rates are consistent with the United Nation World Population Prospects (UN WPP) 2022 fertility rates.

The Bayesian model developed to reconstruct the fertility rates using Demographic and Health Surveys and the UN WPP is published in a working paper.

Abstract

The future world population growth and size will be largely determined by the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. Correct estimates of education-specific fertility rates are crucial for projecting the future population. Yet, consistent cross-country comparable estimates of education-specific fertility for sub-Saharan African countries are still lacking. We propose a flexible Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates by using the patchy Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data and the United Nations’ (UN) reliable estimates of total fertility rates (TFR). Our model produces estimates that match the UN TFR to different extents (in other words, estimates of varying levels of consistency with the UN). We present three model specifications: consistent but not identical with the UN, fully-consistent (nearly identical) with the UN, and consistent with the DHS. Further, we provide a full time series of education-specific TFR estimates covering five-year periods between 1980 and 2014 for 36 sub-Saharan African countries. The results show that the DHS-consistent estimates are usually higher than the UN-fully-consistent ones. The differences between the three model estimates vary substantially in size across countries, yielding 1980-2014 fertility trends that differ from each other mostly in level only but in some cases also in direction.

Funding

The data set are part of the BayesEdu Project at Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) funded from the “Innovation Fund Research, Science and Society” by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW).

We provide education-specific total fertility rates (ESTFR) from three model specifications: (1) estimated TFR consistent but not identical with the TFR estimated by the UN (“Main model (UN-consistent)”; (2) estimated TFR fully consistent (nearly identical) with the TFR estimated by the UN ( “UN-fully -consistent”, and (3) estimated TFR consistent only with the TFR estimated by the DHS ( “DHS-consistent”).

For education- and age-specific fertility rates that are UN-fully consistent, please see https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8182960

Variables

Country: Country names

Education: Four education levels, No Education, Primary Education, Secondary Education and Higher Education.

Year: Five-year periods between 1980 and 2015.

ESTFR: Median education-specific total fertility rate estimate

sd: Standard deviation

Upp50: 50% Upper Credible Interval

Lwr50: 50% Lower Credible Interval

Upp80: 80% Upper Credible Interval

Lwr80: 80% Lower Credible Interval

Model: Three model specifications as explained above and in the working paper. DHS-consistent, Main model (UN-consistent) and UN-fully consistent.

List of countries:

Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cote D'Ivoire, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Time series data for the statistic Birth_Rate_Crude_Per_1000_People and country South Africa. Indicator Definition:Crude birth rate indicates the number of live births occurring during the year, per 1,000 population estimated at midyear. Subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate provides the rate of natural increase, which is equal to the rate of population change in the absence of migration.The statistic "Birth Rate Crude Per 1000 People" stands at 18.78 per mille as of 12/31/2023, the lowest value at least since 12/31/1961, the period currently displayed. Regarding the One-Year-Change of the series, the current value constitutes a decrease of -0.304 percentage points compared to the value the year prior.The 1 year change in percentage points is -0.304.The 3 year change in percentage points is -0.747.The 5 year change in percentage points is -1.08.The 10 year change in percentage points is -3.12.The Serie's long term average value is 29.26 per mille. It's latest available value, on 12/31/2023, is 10.49 percentage points lower, compared to it's long term average value.The Serie's change in percentage points from it's minimum value, on 12/31/2023, to it's latest available value, on 12/31/2023, is +0.0.The Serie's change in percentage points from it's maximum value, on 12/31/1966, to it's latest available value, on 12/31/2023, is -21.18.

Actual value and historical data chart for South Africa Fertility Rate Total Births Per Woman

South Africa ZA: UCB Projection: Fertility Rate: per Woman data was reported at 1.840 NA in 2050. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.850 NA for 2049. South Africa ZA: UCB Projection: Fertility Rate: per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 2.275 NA from Jun 1985 (Median) to 2050, with 66 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.050 NA in 1985 and a record low of 1.840 NA in 2050. South Africa ZA: UCB Projection: Fertility Rate: per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Africa – Table ZA.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

While the BRICS countries are grouped together in terms of economic development, demographic progress varies across these five countries. In 2019, India and South Africa were the only BRICS countries with a fertility rate above replacement level (2.1 births per woman). Fertility rates since 2000 show that fertility in China and Russia has either fluctuated or remained fairly steady, as these two countries are at a later stage of the demographic transition than the other three, while Brazil has reached this stage more recently. Fertility rates in India are following a similar trend to Brazil, while South Africa's rate is progressing at a much slower pace. Demographic development is inextricably linked with economic growth; for example, as fertility rates drop, female participation in the workforce increases, as does the average age, which then leads to higher productivity and a more profitable domestic market.

South Africa ZA: UCB Projection: Crude Birth Rate: per 1000 Persons data was reported at 13.500 NA in 2050. This records a decrease from the previous number of 13.600 NA for 2049. South Africa ZA: UCB Projection: Crude Birth Rate: per 1000 Persons data is updated yearly, averaging 20.050 NA from Jun 1985 (Median) to 2050, with 66 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 33.600 NA in 1985 and a record low of 13.500 NA in 2050. South Africa ZA: UCB Projection: Crude Birth Rate: per 1000 Persons data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Africa – Table ZA.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

This statistic shows the fertility rate in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2013 to 2023. The fertility rate is the average number of children born to one woman while being of child-bearing age. Sub-Saharan Africa includes almost all countries south of the Sahara desert. In 2023, the fertility rate in Sub-Saharan Africa amounted to 4.33 children per woman.

DATASET: Alpha version 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035 estimates of numbers of pregnancies per grid square, with national totals adjusted to match national estimates on numbers of pregnancies made by the Guttmacher Institute (http://www.guttmacher.org/). REGION: Africa SPATIAL RESOLUTION: 0.000833333 decimal degrees (approx 100m at the equator) PROJECTION: Geographic, WGS84 UNITS: Estimated pregnancies per grid square MAPPING APPROACH: Tatem AJ, Campbell J, Guerra-Arias M, de Bernis L, Moran A, Matthews Z, 2014, Mapping for maternal and newborn health: the distributions of women of childbearing age, pregnancies and births, International Journal of Health Geographics, 13:2 FORMAT: Geotiff (zipped using 7-zip (open access tool): www.7-zip.org) FILENAMES: Example - BEN2010pregnancies.tif = Benin (BEN) pregnancies count map for 2010 adjusted to match UN national estimates on numbers of pregnancies. DATE OF PRODUCTION: May 2014

Education- and age-specific fertility rates for 50 African and Latin American countries between 1970 and 2020.

The fertility rates are consistent with the United Nation's World Population Prospects (UN WPP) 2022 fertility rates.

The Bayesian model developed to reconstruct the fertility rates using Demographic and Health Surveys and the UN WPP is published in a working paper.

Abstract:

Consistent and reliable time series of education- and age-specific fertility rates for the past are difficult to obtain in developing countries, although they are needed to evaluate the impact of women’s education on fertility along periods and cohorts. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework to reconstruct age-specific fertility rates by level of education using prior information from the birth history module of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the UN World Population Prospects. In our case study regions, we reconstruct age- and education-specific fertility rates which are consistent with the UN age specific fertility rates by four levels of education for 50 African and Latin American countries from 1970 to 2020 in five-year steps. Our results show that the Bayesian approach allows for estimating reliable education- and age-specific fertility rates using multiple rounds of the DHS surveys. The time series obtained confirm the main findings of the literature on fertility trends, and age and education specific differentials.

Funding:

These data sets are part of the BayesEdu Project at Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) funded from the “Innovation Fund Research, Science and Society” by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW).

Variables:

Country: Country names

Education: Four education levels, No Education, Primary Education, Secondary Education and Higher Education.

Age group: Five-year age groups between 15-19 and 45-49.

Year: Five-year periods between 1970 and 2020.

Median: Median education and age-specific fertility rate estimate

Upper_CI: 95% Upper Credible Interval

Lower_CI: 95% Lower Credible Interval

List of countries:

Angola

Benin

Brazil

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Colombia

Comoros

Congo

Côte D'Ivoire

DR Congo

Ecuador

Egypt

Eswatini

Ethiopia

Gabon

Gambia

Ghana

Guatemala

Guinea

Honduras

Kenya

Lesotho

Liberia

Madagascar

Malawi

Mali

Mexico

Morocco

Mozambique

Namibia

Nicaragua

Niger

Nigeria

Paraguay

Peru

Rwanda

Sao Tome and Principe

Senegal

Sierra Leone

South Africa

Sudan

Tanzania

Togo

Tunisia

Uganda

Zambia

Zimbabwe