The total population of South Africa amounted to 63.02 million people in 2024. Following a continuous upward trend, the total population has risen by 33.94 million people since 1980. Between 2024 and 2030, the total population will rise by 5.86 million people, continuing its consistent upward trajectory.This indicator describes the total population in the country at hand. This total population of the country consists of all persons falling within the scope of the census.

A flexible model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates: Sub-saharan Africa case study

The fertility rates are consistent with the United Nation World Population Prospects (UN WPP) 2022 fertility rates.

The Bayesian model developed to reconstruct the fertility rates using Demographic and Health Surveys and the UN WPP is published in a working paper.

Abstract

The future world population growth and size will be largely determined by the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. Correct estimates of education-specific fertility rates are crucial for projecting the future population. Yet, consistent cross-country comparable estimates of education-specific fertility for sub-Saharan African countries are still lacking. We propose a flexible Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates by using the patchy Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data and the United Nations’ (UN) reliable estimates of total fertility rates (TFR). Our model produces estimates that match the UN TFR to different extents (in other words, estimates of varying levels of consistency with the UN). We present three model specifications: consistent but not identical with the UN, fully-consistent (nearly identical) with the UN, and consistent with the DHS. Further, we provide a full time series of education-specific TFR estimates covering five-year periods between 1980 and 2014 for 36 sub-Saharan African countries. The results show that the DHS-consistent estimates are usually higher than the UN-fully-consistent ones. The differences between the three model estimates vary substantially in size across countries, yielding 1980-2014 fertility trends that differ from each other mostly in level only but in some cases also in direction.

Funding

The data set are part of the BayesEdu Project at Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) funded from the “Innovation Fund Research, Science and Society” by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW).

We provide education-specific total fertility rates (ESTFR) from three model specifications: (1) estimated TFR consistent but not identical with the TFR estimated by the UN (“Main model (UN-consistent)”; (2) estimated TFR fully consistent (nearly identical) with the TFR estimated by the UN ( “UN-fully -consistent”, and (3) estimated TFR consistent only with the TFR estimated by the DHS ( “DHS-consistent”).

For education- and age-specific fertility rates that are UN-fully consistent, please see https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8182960

Variables

Country: Country names

Education: Four education levels, No Education, Primary Education, Secondary Education and Higher Education.

Year: Five-year periods between 1980 and 2015.

ESTFR: Median education-specific total fertility rate estimate

sd: Standard deviation

Upp50: 50% Upper Credible Interval

Lwr50: 50% Lower Credible Interval

Upp80: 80% Upper Credible Interval

Lwr80: 80% Lower Credible Interval

Model: Three model specifications as explained above and in the working paper. DHS-consistent, Main model (UN-consistent) and UN-fully consistent.

List of countries:

Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cote D'Ivoire, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

The gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in South Africa amounted to 6,360 U.S. dollars in 2024. Between 1980 and 2024, the GDP per capita rose by 3,290 U.S. dollars, though the increase followed an uneven trajectory rather than a consistent upward trend. The GDP per capita will steadily rise by 1,070 U.S. dollars over the period from 2024 to 2030, reflecting a clear upward trend.This indicator describes the gross domestic product per capita at current prices. Thereby, the gross domestic product was first converted from national currency to U.S. dollars at current exchange rates and then divided by the total population. The gross domestic product is a measure of a country's productivity. It refers to the total value of goods and service produced during a given time period (here a year).

Life expectancy from birth in Africa was just over 37 years in 1950. As a wave of independence movements and decolonization swept the continent between the 1950s and early 1970s, life expectancy rose greatly in Africa; particularly due to improvements and control over medical services, better sanitation and the widespread promotion of vaccinations in the continent resulted in a sharp decrease in child mortality; one of the most significant reasons for Africa’s low life expectancy rates. Life expectancy in the continent would continue to steadily increase for much of the second half of the 20th century; however, life expectancy would slow down in the latter half of the 1980s, as the HIV/AIDS epidemic quickly grew to become one of the leading causes of death in the continent. After hovering around the low-fifties in the 1980s to and 1990s, life expectancy would begin to rise again at the turn of the millennium, and is estimated to be over 64 years in 2023.

In 1870, the average life expectancy in South Africa was 33.5 years from birth. This life expectancy would remain largely unchanged until the late-1910s, where life expectancy would drop to as low as thirty years as a result of the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic. In the 1930s, life expectancy in South Africa would begin to steadily rise, peaking at over 63 years in 1995, as industrialization and greater access to healthcare and vaccinations led to significantly reduced child mortality rates across the region. However, life expectancy experienced a sudden drop beginning after 1995, as the HIV/AIDS epidemic spread throughout the country, beginning in the early 1990s. As the epidemic spread through the country, life expectancy would fall by almost 10 years, bottoming out below 54 years in 2005. Life expectancy would begin to rise again beginning in the early 2010s however, as access to HIV counselling and treatments, such as antiretroviral therapy, became more widely available throughout the region. Life expectancy in the country is estimated to be almost 64 years from birth in 2020; a return to the pre-HIV figures of the early 1990s.

The history of modern Brazil begins in the year 1500 when Pedro Álvares Cabral arrived with a small fleet and claimed the land for the Portuguese Empire. With the Treaty of Torsedillas in 1494, Spain and Portugal agreed to split the New World peacefully, thus allowing Portugal to take control of the area with little competition from other European powers. As the Portuguese did not arrive with large numbers, and the indigenous population was overwhelmed with disease, large numbers of African slaves were transported across the Atlantic and forced to harvest or mine Brazil's wealth of natural resources. These slaves were forced to work in sugar, coffee and rubber plantations and gold and diamond mines, which helped fund Portuguese expansion across the globe. In modern history, transatlantic slavery brought more Africans to Brazil than any other country in the world. This combination of European, African and indigenous peoples set the foundation for what has become one of the most ethnically diverse countries across the globe.

Independence and Monarchy By the early eighteenth century, Portugal had established control over most of modern-day Brazil, and the population more than doubled in each half of the 1800s. The capital of the Portuguese empire was moved to Rio de Janeiro in 1808 (as Napoleon's forces moved closer towards Lisbon), making this the only time in European history where a capital was moved to another continent. The United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil and the Algarves was established in 1815, and when the Portuguese monarchy and capital returned to Lisbon in 1821, the King's son, Dom Pedro, remained in Brazil as regent. The following year, Dom Pedro declared Brazil's independence, and within three years, most other major powers (including Portugal) recognized the Empire of Brazil as an independent monarchy and formed economic relations with it; this was a much more peaceful transition to independence than many of the ex-Spanish colonies in the Americas. Under the reign of Dom Pedro II, Brazil's political stability remained relatively intact, and the economy grew through its exportation of raw materials and economic alliances with Portugal and Britain. Despite pressure from political opponents, Pedro II abolished slavery in 1850 (as part of a trade agreement with Britain), and Brazil remained a powerful, stable and progressive nation under Pedro II's leadership, in stark contrast to its South American neighbors. The booming economy also attracted millions of migrants from Europe and Asia around the turn of the twentieth century, which has had a profound impact on Brazil's demography and culture to this day.

The New Republic

Despite his popularity, King Pedro II was overthrown in a military coup in 1889, ending his 58 year reign and initiating six decades of political instability and economic difficulties. A series of military coups, failed attempts to restore stability, and the decline of Brazil's overseas influence contributed greatly to a weakened economy in the early 1900s. The 1930s saw the emergence of Getúlio Vargas, who ruled as a fascist dictator for two decades. Despite a growing economy and Brazil's alliance with the Allied Powers in the Second World War, the end of fascism in Europe weakened Vargas' position in Brazil, and he was eventually overthrown by the military, who then re-introduced democracy to Brazil in 1945. Vargas was then elected to power in 1951, and remained popular among the general public, however political opposition to his beliefs and methods led to his suicide in 1954. Further political instability ensued and a brutal, yet prosperous, military dictatorship took control in the 1960s and 1970s, but Brazil gradually returned to a democratic nation in the 1980s. Brazil's economic and political stability fluctuated over the subsequent four decades, and a corruption scandal in the 2010s saw the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. Despite all of this economic instability and political turmoil, Brazil is one of the world's largest economies and is sometimes seen as a potential superpower. The World Bank classifies it as a upper-middle income country and it has the largest share of global wealth in Latin America. It is the largest Lusophone (Portuguese-speaking), and sixth most populous country in the world, with a population of more than 210 million people.