In 2025, the total population of South Korea is projected to be around ***** million. In thirty years, the number of people aged 15 to 64 is estimated to decrease by one-third, while the number of older adults is anticipated to more than double. Additionally, the overall population is expected to decline by around *** million people by that time. Declining birth rate Several factors are contributing to the expected demographic changes in South Korea. Firstly, the birth rate has been declining for years. As of 2024, South Korea had the lowest fertility rate in the world. This trend continues despite the efforts of successive governments to encourage young people to have children. An increasing number of South Korean women are prioritizing their careers, often choosing to focus on work rather than starting a family at a young age. While the employment rate for South Korean women is still lower than that of men, it has steadily risen over the past decade. Increase in life expectancy Secondly, life expectancy in South Korea has steadily increased due to improved living standards and healthcare. The average life expectancy at birth for South Koreans has risen from less than 75 years to almost 83 years over the past twenty years. As a result, the proportion of people aged 65 and older has grown from less than ** percent to around ** percent in the last decade.

Korea Population Projection: 81 Years data was reported at 620,266.000 Person in 2065. This records a decrease from the previous number of 675,586.000 Person for 2064. Korea Population Projection: 81 Years data is updated yearly, averaging 376,035.000 Person from Dec 2000 (Median) to 2065, with 66 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 756,298.000 Person in 2050 and a record low of 66,754.000 Person in 2000. Korea Population Projection: 81 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Statistics Korea. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Korea – Table KR.G004: Population Projection: Statistics Korea.

This statistic shows the leading countries with the highest projected median age in 2050. By 2050, the Republic of Korea is projected to have the population with the highest median age, at 56.5 years.

Korea Population Projection: Mid Year data was reported at 47,731,321.000 Person in 2050. This records a decrease from the previous number of 48,162,628.000 Person for 2049. Korea Population Projection: Mid Year data is updated yearly, averaging 46,840,607.000 Person from Jun 1950 (Median) to 2050, with 101 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 52,796,081.000 Person in 2029 and a record low of 20,845,771.000 Person in 1950. Korea Population Projection: Mid Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Korea – Table KR.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

In 2018, urban areas were home to ***** percent of the total South Korean population. While a shift to urban life has already been observed since before that, it is predicted that the population inhabiting urban areas in South Korea will reach up to ***** percent of the total South Korean population in 2050.

Korea Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data was reported at -0.920 % in 2050. This records a decrease from the previous number of -0.880 % for 2049. Korea Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 0.330 % from Jun 1990 (Median) to 2050, with 61 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.160 % in 1992 and a record low of -0.920 % in 2050. Korea Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Korea – Table KR.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

In 2050, the three East Asian countries Hong Kong (SAR of China), South Korea, and Japan are forecasted to have the highest share of people aged 65 years or more. Except for Kuwait, all the countries on the list are either in Europe or East Asia. By 2050, 22 percent of the world's population is expected to be above 60 years.

Korea Population Projection: Female: 81 Years data was reported at 318,228.000 Person in 2065. This records a decrease from the previous number of 349,034.000 Person for 2064. Korea Population Projection: Female: 81 Years data is updated yearly, averaging 213,711.000 Person from Dec 2000 (Median) to 2065, with 66 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 410,737.000 Person in 2050 and a record low of 45,127.000 Person in 2000. Korea Population Projection: Female: 81 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Statistics Korea. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Korea – Table KR.G003: Population Projection: Statistics Korea.

Demographic development in South Korea in the final decades of the 21st century saw rapid change across its society. In South Korea, the average age of the population rose from below 20 years in the late-70s to around 45 years today, and it is projected to rise to over 62 years in 2074. With one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, population aging is one of the largest challenges facing South Korea today. If these projections come true, then South Korea is on course to soon have a smaller working-age population than its combined child and elderly populations. Recent years have shown population aging to be a compounding issue that exacerbates itself - young people often become responsible for providing care for elderly relatives, straining time and financial resources and dissuading many from having their own children. The state must also invest much more money into elderly care and healthcare, often redistributing resources that were previously invested in childcare and education. Although the state (and even some private companies) are now offering financial incentives for couples to have children, it remains to be seen whether these measures will be enough to reverse years of rapid population aging and declining fertility rates.

In 2022, the population aged 65 and over in South Korea amounted to around *****million. The elderly population is expected to continue to grow and more than double, reaching a peak of around ** million by 2050.

Korea Number of Births data was reported at 335,551.000 Person in 2050. This records a decrease from the previous number of 335,694.000 Person for 2049. Korea Number of Births data is updated yearly, averaging 426,528.000 Person from Jun 1990 (Median) to 2050, with 61 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 739,094.000 Person in 1992 and a record low of 335,551.000 Person in 2050. Korea Number of Births data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Korea – Table KR.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

We assess the potential impact of international migration on population ageing in Asian countries by estimating replacement migration for the period 2022-2050.

This open data deposit contains the code (R-scripts) and the datasets (csv-files) for the replacement migration scenarios and a zero-migration scenario:

• Constant chronological old-age dependency ratio (Constant OADR scenario)
• Constant prospective old-age dependency ratio (Constant POADR scenario)
• Constant chronological working-age population (Constant WA scenario)
• Constant prospective working-age population (Constant PWA scenario)
• Zero-migration (ZM scenario)

Countries included in the analysis: Armenia, China, Georgia, Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, North Korea, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand.

Please note that for Armenia and Hong Kong (2023) and Georgia (2024) later baseline years are applied due to the UN country-specific assumptions on post-Covid-19 mortality.

For detailed information about the scenarios and parameters:

Dörflinger, M., Potancokova, M., Marois, G. (2024): The potential impact of international migration on prospective population ageing in Asian countries. Asian Population Studies. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441730.2024.2436201

All underlying data (UN World Population Prospects 2022) are openly available at:

https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Archive

Code

1_Data.R:

• Load and merge data from UN World Population Prospects 2022
• Define sample
• Prepare data (prospective old-age thresholds, model sex and age pattern of migrants)

2_Scenarios.R:

• Replacement migration scenarios:
  • Constant chronological old-age dependency
  • Constant prospective old-age dependency
  • Constant chronological working-age population
  • Constant prospective working-age population
• Zero-migration scenario

3_Robustness_checks.R:

• Run replacement migrations scenarios with different model sex and age patterns for net migration

Program version used: RStudio "Chocolate Cosmos" (e4392fc9, 2024-06-05). Files may not be compatible with other versions.

Datasets

The datasets contain the key information on population size, the relevant indicators (OADR, POADR, WA, PWA) and replacement migration volumes and rates by country and year. Please see readme_datasets.txt for detailed information.

Acknowledgements

Part of the research was developed in the Young Scientists Summer Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria) with financial support from the German National Member Organization.

Korea Mortality Rate: Under 5 per 1000 Births data was reported at 3.300 NA in 2050. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.300 NA for 2049. Korea Mortality Rate: Under 5 per 1000 Births data is updated yearly, averaging 3.600 NA from Jun 1990 (Median) to 2050, with 61 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.500 NA in 1990 and a record low of 3.300 NA in 2050. Korea Mortality Rate: Under 5 per 1000 Births data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Korea – Table KR.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

this graph was created in R:

https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-user-content/o/inbox%2F16731800%2F55a15c27e578216565ab65e502f9ecf8%2Fgraph1.png?generation=1730674251775717&alt=media" alt=""> https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-user-content/o/inbox%2F16731800%2F0b481e4d397700978fe5cf15932dbc68%2Fgraph2.png?generation=1730674259213775&alt=media" alt="">

driven primarily by high birth rates in developing countries and advancements in healthcare. According to the United Nations, the global population surpassed 8 billion in 2023, marking a critical milestone in human history. This growth, however, is unevenly distributed across continents and countries, leading to varied population densities and urban pressures.

Surface area and population density play vital roles in shaping the demographic and economic landscape of each country. For instance, countries with large land masses such as Russia, Canada, and Australia have low population densities despite their significant populations, as vast portions of their land are sparsely populated or uninhabitable. Conversely, nations like Bangladesh and South Korea exhibit extremely high population densities due to smaller land areas combined with large populations.

Population density, measured as the number of people per square kilometer, affects resource availability, environmental sustainability, and quality of life. High-density areas face greater challenges in housing, infrastructure, and environmental management, often experiencing increased pollution and resource strain. In contrast, low-density areas may struggle with underdeveloped infrastructure and limited access to services due to the dispersed population.

Urbanization trends are another important aspect of these dynamics. As people migrate to cities seeking better economic opportunities, urban areas grow more densely populated, amplifying the need for efficient land use and sustainable urban planning. The UN reports that over half of the world’s population currently resides in urban areas, with this figure expected to rise to nearly 70% by 2050. This shift requires nations to balance population growth and density with sustainable development strategies to ensure a higher quality of life and environmental stewardship for future generations.

Through an understanding of population size, surface area, and density, policymakers can better address challenges related to urban development, rural depopulation, and resource allocation, supporting a balanced approach to population management and economic development.

Korea Number of Deaths data was reported at 769,429.000 Person in 2050. This records an increase from the previous number of 761,451.000 Person for 2049. Korea Number of Deaths data is updated yearly, averaging 351,960.000 Person from Jun 1990 (Median) to 2050, with 61 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 769,429.000 Person in 2050 and a record low of 238,780.000 Person in 1990. Korea Number of Deaths data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Korea – Table KR.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

Korea Number of Migrants: Net data was reported at -3,341.000 Person in 2050. This records a decrease from the previous number of 482.000 Person for 2049. Korea Number of Migrants: Net data is updated yearly, averaging 45,080.000 Person from Jun 1990 (Median) to 2050, with 61 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 141,470.000 Person in 2014 and a record low of -102,758.000 Person in 1996. Korea Number of Migrants: Net data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Korea – Table KR.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

In 2024, the share of the population in Taiwan aged 65 and older accounted for approximately 19.2 percent of the total population. While the share of old people on the island increased gradually over recent years, the percentage of the working-age population and the children have both declined. Taiwan’s aging population With one of the lowest fertility rates in the world and a steadily growing life expectancy, the average age of Taiwan’s population is increasing quickly, and the share of people aged 65 and above is expected to reach around 38.4 percent of the total population in 2050. This development is also reflected in Taiwan’s population pyramid, which shows that the size of the youngest age group is only half of the size of age groups between 40 and 60 years. The rapid aging of the populations puts a heavy burden on the social insurance system. Old-age dependency is expected to reach more than 70 percent by 2050, meaning that by then three people of working age will have to support two elders, compared to only one elder supported by four working people today. Aging societies in East Asia Today, many countries in East Asia have very low fertility rates and face the challenges of aging societies. This is especially true among those countries that experienced high economic growth in the past, which often resulted in quickly receding birth rates. Japan was one of the first East Asian countries witnessing this demographic change, as is reflected in its high median age. South Korea had the lowest fertility rate of all Asian countries in recent years, and with China, one of the largest populations on earth joined the ranks of quickly aging societies.

Korea Fertility Rate: per Woman data was reported at 1.590 NA in 2050. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.580 NA for 2049. Korea Fertility Rate: per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 1.400 NA from Jun 1990 (Median) to 2050, with 61 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.780 NA in 1992 and a record low of 1.120 NA in 2005. Korea Fertility Rate: per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Korea – Table KR.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

Korea Life Expectancy at Birth data was reported at 83.700 Year in 2050. This records an increase from the previous number of 83.600 Year for 2049. Korea Life Expectancy at Birth data is updated yearly, averaging 82.600 Year from Jun 1990 (Median) to 2050, with 61 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 83.700 Year in 2050 and a record low of 71.500 Year in 1991. Korea Life Expectancy at Birth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Korea – Table KR.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

In 2022, the sex ratio in South Korea was approximately **** men for every 100 women. By 2050, this ratio is projected to fall to **** and then increase to ***** by 2072. Gender equality in South Korea Despite the progress made in educational and economic equality for women over the past few decades, disparities between South Korean men and women continue to exist across all areas of society. In 2023, South Korean men earned over ** percent more than women, making the country’s gender pay gap the highest among OECD member countries. Although a gender quota for proportional representation in parliamentary elections has been implemented, many citizens believe these measures are insufficient for achieving gender equality in politics. As of 2024, women held only ** percent of the seats in the National Assembly. Opinions on gender discrimination According to a survey conducted in 2024, discrimination against women was perceived as more widespread than discrimination against men across various areas, including the workplace, home, and school. Over half of the respondents believed that discrimination against women in the workplace was a serious issue, while only ** percent felt the same way about discrimination against men. Additionally, when it comes to the future of gender equality in South Korean society, about ** percent of respondents expressed a lack of optimism.