The spread between 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a positive value of 0.1 percent in November 2024. The 10-year minus two-year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000-2001, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

As of December 30, 2024, 14 economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of 1,370 percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with -350 percent; and Russia with -273 percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BAA10Y) from 1986-01-02 to 2025-03-25 about Baa, spread, 10-year, maturity, bonds, Treasury, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Russia 10Y Bond Yield was 15.01 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Russia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to Jan 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for France (IRLTLT01FRM156N) from Jan 1960 to Feb 2025 about France, long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

Greece 10Y Bond Yield was 3.60 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Greece 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

US 10 Year Note Bond Yield was 4.34 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Thailand 10Y Bond Yield was 2.09 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Thailand 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Croatia 10Y Bond Yield was 3.13 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Croatia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Germany (IRLTLT01DEM156N) from May 1956 to Feb 2025 about long-term, Germany, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

As of October 16, 2024, all French government debt securities with any maturity date returned higher yields than one year before. The lowest yield was found on securities with maturities of two years, which returned 2.41 percent. Conversely, 30 year French government bonds recorded a positive yield of 3.56 percent. Positive bond yields mean that investors receive more money at the bond's maturity than the original purchase price of the bond, owing to low demand for the bond on money or capital markets.

Germany 10Y Bond Yield was 2.79 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

France 10Y Bond Yield was 3.46 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. France 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Romania 10Y Bond Yield was 7.48 percent on Tuesday March 25, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Romania 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Portugal 10Y Bond Yield was 3.28 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Portugal 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

South Korea 10Y Bond Yield was 2.83 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. South Korea 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Luxembourg (IRLTLT01LUM156N) from Oct 1993 to Feb 2025 about Luxembourg, long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

Graph and download economic data for ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A3HYC) from 1996-12-31 to 2025-03-26 about CCC, option-adjusted spread, yield, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.