The spread between 10–year and two–year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a positive value of 0.49 percent in June 2025. The 10–year minus two–year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000–2001, and the financial crisis of 2007–2008.

As of December 30, 2024, ** economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of ***** percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with **** percent; and Russia with **** percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BAA10Y) from 1986-01-02 to 2025-08-28 about Baa, spread, 10-year, maturity, bonds, Treasury, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The yield on Greece 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.43% on August 29, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.03 points and is 0.10 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Greece 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

As of April 16, 2025, French government debt securities with a maturity date of over six years returned higher yields than *** year before. On the other hand, the yield for a maturity shorter than *** year was lower than *** year before. The lowest yield was found on securities with maturities of two years, which returned **** percent. Conversely, 30-year French government bonds recorded a positive yield of **** percent. Positive bond yields mean that investors receive more money at the bond's maturity than the original purchase price of the bond, owing to low demand for the bond on money or capital markets.

The yield on Russia 10Y Bond Yield eased to 13.85% on September 1, 2025, marking a 0.05 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.34 points and is 2.03 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Russia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Euro Area (19 Countries) (IRLTLT01EZM156N) from Jan 1970 to Jul 2025 about long-term, Euro Area, 10-year, Europe, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

The yield on France 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.58% on September 2, 2025, marking a 0.05 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.30 points and is 0.58 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. France 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to Jun 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Government bond spreads as of April 15, 2025, varied widely among the largest economies when compared to German Bunds and U.S. Treasury notes. The United Kingdom's bond spread was the higest against both, with ***** basis points (bps) over Germany and **** bps over the U.S. In contrast, China and Japan display negative spreads, with Japan having the lowest spread at ****** bps against U.S. Treasuries. Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada showed moderate spreads. Positive bond spreads indicate that a country’s government bonds have higher yields compared to the benchmark bonds - in this case, the German Bunds and U.S. Treasury notes. Higher spreads often signal perceived higher risk or economic uncertainty, as investors demand greater returns for holding these bonds. expectations. Conversely, negative spreads mean that these bonds offer lower yields than the benchmark. Negative spreads often indicate strong investor confidence, safe-haven status, or lower inflation expectations, as investors are willing to accept lower returns for the perceived stability of these bonds.

Argentina Treasury Bonds: Parity: USD: Discount data was reported at 49.000 % in Aug 2020. This records an increase from the previous number of 48.700 % for Jul 2020. Argentina Treasury Bonds: Parity: USD: Discount data is updated monthly, averaging 95.460 % from Dec 2005 (Median) to Aug 2020, with 177 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 161.700 % in Nov 2015 and a record low of 29.130 % in Mar 2009. Argentina Treasury Bonds: Parity: USD: Discount data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Argentina. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Argentina – Table AR.M009: Treasury Securities: Yield and Spread (Discontinued).

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.23% on August 29, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.15 points, though it remains 0.33 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

The yield on Romania 10Y Bond Yield rose to 7.45% on September 2, 2025, marking a 0.10 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.17 points and is 0.65 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Romania 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.95% on September 2, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.16 points and is 0.83 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

This dataset contains high-frequency sovereign bond prices and yields across multiple maturities and countries, including Australia (AU) and the United States (US). The data spans several time points and includes detailed pricing for 1-month to 30-year government securities. This dataset enables macro-financial analysis of yield curve dynamics, monetary policy impacts, sovereign risk pricing, and cross-country bond market behavior. Originally used to contextualize U.S. municipal borrowing costs relative to national benchmarks, this data supports robust time-series econometric modeling.

Italian government bond yields mostly decreased between April 2024 and April 2025. For instance, the 1-year bond yield dropped from **** percent to **** percent. The yield on 30-year bonds was the only one to slightly increase, from **** percent to **** percent. The decline in yields was consistent across both short- and long-term maturities during this period.

This data set contains the U.S. Treasury yield curve rates on a daily basis for a variety of maturities ranging from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds. Panel-formatted, it can be used for analyses of term structures of interest rates, forecasting of monetary policy, and time-series analysis of sovereign risk-free standards. It is especially appropriate for empirical applications of finance including bond pricing, cost of borrowing by municipalities, and macro-financial risk measurement.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Germany (IRLTLT01DEM156N) from May 1956 to Jul 2025 about long-term, Germany, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

The yield on Spain 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.35% on September 1, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.15 points and is 0.20 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Spain 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.