South African monthly The FTSE/JSE All Share Index data was procured from Bloomberg and the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) from South African Reserve Bank (SARB) database, where the data has been seasonally adjusted specifying 2015 as the base year. Volatility measures in these markets are generated through a multivaraite EGARCH model in the WinRATS software. South African monthly consumer price index (CPI) data was procured from the International Monetary Fund’s International Financial Statistics (IFS) database, where the data has been seasonally adjusted, specifying 2010 as the base year. The inflation rate is constructed by taking the year-on-year changes in the monthly CPI figures. Inflation uncertainty was generated through the GARCH model in Eviews software. The following South African macroeconomic variables were procured from the SARB: real industrial production (IP), which is used as a proxy for real GDP, real investment (I), real consumption (C), inflation (CPI), broad money (M3), the 3-month treasury bill rate (TB3) and the policy rate (R), a measure of U.S. EPU developed by Baker et al. (2016) to account for global developments available at http://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

S&P 500: A Bull or a Bear?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

What happens to gold if CPI increases?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a demographic shift of an ageing population and significant technological automation. So if you think that stocks or equities or ETFs are the best place to put your money in 2022, you might want to think again. The crash of the OTC and small-cap market since February 2021 has been quite an indication of what a correction looks like. According to the Motley Fool what happens after major downturns in the market historically speaking? In each of the previous four instances that the S&P 500's Shiller P/E shot above and sustained 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to 89% of its value. So what's what we too are due for, reversion to the mean will be realistically brutal after the Fed's hyper-extreme intervention has run its course. Of course what the Fed stimulus has really done is simply allowed the 1% to get a whole lot richer to the point of wealth inequality spiraling out of control in the decades ahead leading us likely to a dystopia in an unfair and unequal version of BigTech capitalism. This has also led to a trend of short squeeze to these tech stocks, as shown in recent years' data. Of course the Fed has to say that's its done all of these things for the people, employment numbers and the labor market. Women in the workplace have been set behind likely 15 years in social progress due to the pandemic and the Fed's response. While the 89% lost during the Great Depression would be virtually impossible today thanks to ongoing intervention from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill, a correction of 20% to 50% would be pretty fair and simply return the curve back to a normal trajectory as interest rates going back up eventually in the 2023 to 2025 period. It's very unlikely the market has taken Fed tapering into account (priced-in), since the euphoria of a can't miss market just keeps pushing the markets higher. But all good things must come to an end. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data from July. This report showed that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 5.2% over the past 12 months. While the Fed and economists promise us this inflation is temporary, others are not so certain. As you print so much money, the money you have is worth less and certain goods cost more. Wage gains in some industries cannot be taken back, they are permanent - in the service sector like restaurants, hospitality and travel that have been among the hardest hit. The pandemic has led to a paradigm shift in the future of work, and that too is not temporary. The Great Resignation means white collar jobs with be more WFM than ever before, with a new software revolution, different transport and energy behaviors and so forth. Climate change alone could slow down global GDP in the 21st century. How can inflation be temporary when so many trends don't appear to be temporary? Sure the price of lumber or used-cars could be temporary, but a global chip shortage is exasperating the automobile sector. The stock market isn't even behaving like it cares about anything other than the Fed, and its $billions of dollars of buying bonds each month. Some central banks will start to taper about December, 2021 (like the European). However Delta could further mutate into a variant that makes the first generation of vaccines less effective. Such a macro event could be enough to trigger the correction we've been speaking about. So stay safe, and keep your money safe. The Last Dance of the 2009 bull market could feel especially more painful because we've been spoiled for so long in the markets. We can barely remember what March, 2020 felt like. Some people sold their life savings simply due to scare tactics by the likes of Bill Ackman. His scare tactics on CNBC won him likely hundreds of millions as the stock market tanked. Hedge funds further gamed the Reddit and Gamestop movement, orchestrating them and leading the new retail investors into meme speculation and a whole bunch of other unsavory things like options trading at such scale we've never seen before. It's not just inflation and higher interest rates, it's how absurdly high valuations have become. Still correlation does not imply causation. Just because inflation has picked up, it doesn't guarantee that stocks will head lower. Nevertheless, weaker buying power associated with higher inflation can't be overlooked as a potential negative for the U.S. economy and equities. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.7. This is 97% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.5 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This is just math, folks. History is saying the stock market is 2x its true value. So why and who would be full on the market or an asset class like crypto that is mostly speculative in nature to begin with? Study the following on a historical basis, and due your own due diligence as to the health of the markets: Debt-to-GDP ratio Call to put ratio

Inflation Rate in India decreased to 1.55 percent in July from 2.10 percent in June of 2025. This dataset provides - India Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The main stock market index of United States, the US500, rose to 6397 points on August 11, 2025, gaining 0.12% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 2.04% and is up 19.69% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from United States. United States Stock Market Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Inflation Rate in China decreased to 0 percent in July from 0.10 percent in June of 2025. This dataset provides - China Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

BNP Paribas Global Agri TR Index: The Future of Food?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

U.S. stock futures see an uptick as investors evaluate earnings reports and await inflation data. Key stocks like Nvidia and Snowflake show positive activity, while Salesforce experiences a decline.

Sources:

German Central Bank (ed.), 1975: Deutsches Geld- und Bankwesen in Zahlen 1876 – 1975. (German monetary system and banking system in numbers 1876 – 1975) German Central Bank (ed.), different years: monthly reports of the German Central Bank, statistical part, interest rates German Central Bank (ed.), different years: Supplementary statistical booklets for the monthly reports of the German Central Bank 1959 – 1992, security statistics Reich Statistical Office (ed.), different years: Statistical yearbook of the German empire Statistical Office (ed.), 1985: Geld und Kredit. Index der Aktienkurse (Money and Credit. Index of share prices) – Lange Reihe; Fachserie 9, Reihe 2. Statistical Office (ed.), 1987: Entwicklung der Nahrungsmittelpreise von 1800 – 1880 in Deutschland. (Development of food prices in Germany 1800 – 1880) Statistical Office (ed.), 1987: Entwicklung der Verbraucherpreise (Development of consumer prices) seit 1881 in Deutschland. (Development of consumer prices since 1881 in Germany) Statistical Office (ed.), different years: Fachserie 17, Reihe 7, Preisindex für die Lebenshaltung (price index for costs of living) Donner, 1934: Kursbildung am Aktienmarkt; Grundlagen zur Konjunkturbeobachtung an den Effektenmärkten. (Prices on the stock market; groundwork for observation of economic cycles on the stock market) Homburger, 1905: Die Entwicklung des Zinsfusses in Deutschland von 1870 – 1903. (Development of the interest flow in Germany, 1870 – 1903) Voye, 1902: Über die Höhe der verschiedenen Zinsarten und ihre wechselseitige Abhängigkeit.(On the values of different types of interests and their interdependence).

Consumer Price Index CPI in the United States increased to 322.56 points in June from 321.46 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The annual returns of the Nasdaq 100 Index from 1986 to 2024. fluctuated significantly throughout the period considered. The Nasdaq 100 index saw its lowest performance in 2008, with a return rate of ****** percent, while the largest returns were registered in 1999, at ****** percent. As of June 11, 2024, the rate of return of Nasdaq 100 Index stood at ** percent. The Nasdaq 100 is a stock market index comprised of the 100 largest and most actively traded non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. How has the Nasdaq 100 evolved over years? The Nasdaq 100, which was previously heavily influenced by tech companies during the dot-com boom, has undergone significant diversification. Today, it represents a broader range of high-growth, non-financial companies across sectors like consumer services and healthcare, reflecting the evolving landscape of the global economy. The annual development of the Nasdaq 100 recently has generally been positive, except for 2022, when the NASDAQ experienced a decline due to worries about escalating inflation, interest rates, and regulatory challenges. What are the leading companies on Nasdaq 100? In August 2023, ***** was the largest company on the Nasdaq 100, with a market capitalization of **** trillion euros. Also, ****************************************** were among the five leading companies included in the index. Market capitalization is one of the most common ways of measuring how big a company is in the financial markets. It is calculated by multiplying the total number of outstanding shares by the current market price.

A monthly and quarterly data set spanning July 1995 to December 2016 of the following macro-economic variables 1. South African stock market 2. South African GDP3. United States GDP 4. South African interest rate 5. US interest rate 6. South African inflation rate 7. US inflation rate 8. South African Money Supply 9. Rand/Dollar Exchange 10. FTSE

EGPB - An Event-based Gold Price Benchmark Dataset

This benchmark dataset consists of 8030 rows and 36 variables sourced from multiple credible economic websites, covering a period from January 2001 to December 2022. This dataset can be utilized to predict gold prices specifically or to aid any economic field that is influenced by the variables in this dataset.

Key variables & Features include:

• Previous gold prices

• Future gold prices with predictions for one day, one week, and one month

• Oil prices

• Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500)

• Dow Jones Industrial (DJI)

• US dollar index

• US treasury

• Inflation rate

• Consumer price index (CPI)

• Federal funds rate

• Silver prices

• Copper prices

• Iron prices

• Platinum prices

• Palladium prices

Additionally, the dataset considers global events that may impact gold prices, which were categorized into groups and collected from three distinct sources: the Al-Jazeera website spanning from 2022 to 2019, the Investing website spanning from 2018 to 2016, and the Yahoo Finance website spanning from 2007 to 2001.

These events data were then divided into multiple groups:

• Economic data

• Politics

• logistics

• Oil

• OPEC

• Dollar currency

• Sterling pound currency

• Russian ruble currency

• Yen currency

• Euro currency

• US stocks

• Global stocks

• Inflation

• Job reports

• Unemployment rates

• CPI rate

• Interest rates

• Bonds

These events were encoded using a numeric value, where 0 represented no events, 1 represented low events, 2 represented high events, 3 represented stable events, 4 represented unstable events, and 5 represented events that were observed during the day but had no effect on the dataset.

Cite this dataset: Farah Mansour and Wael Etaiwi, "EGPBD: An Event-based Gold Price Benchmark Dataset," 2023 3rd International Conference on Electrical, Computer, Communications and Mechatronics Engineering (ICECCME), Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain, 2023, pp. 1-7, doi: 10.1109/ICECCME57830.2023.10252987.

@INPROCEEDINGS{10252987, author={Mansour, Farah and Etaiwi, Wael}, booktitle={2023 3rd International Conference on Electrical, Computer, Communications and Mechatronics Engineering (ICECCME)}, title={EGPBD: An Event-based Gold Price Benchmark Dataset}, year={2023}, volume={}, number={}, pages={1-7}, doi={10.1109/ICECCME57830.2023.10252987}}

The aim of this investigation is, to describe the development of the German Stock Market during the inter-war period. Causes for the so called change of the stock exchange functions are analysed. The author wants to make a contribution on special aspects of the economic history of the Weimar Republic and the following NS-regime. In his investigation the researcher analyses the activities of the involved players in a historical-institutional framework. The Study’s subjectIn the year 1890 the constitution of security exchange markets and stock markets has been the object of political debate and there has been discussed similar questions according to this topic in public and in policy as today. A current question is about the possibilities to boost the functionality of the security exchange and stock markets, not least in the face of Germany’s position in the global economy. In 1896 as a result of massive political conflicts a stock exchange act has arisen that disappointed the representatives of liberal trading interests because of the restriction of the stock market system’s autonomy and the prohibition of certain forms of trade. In 1908 an amendment to the stock exchange act has been adopted by the parliament. The stock market act in this new form has had validity until today. After the years of the hyperinflation deep changes of the stock market processes has been taken place. This changes can be described as a change of function. The economic-historical study at hand deals with the description of the development of the German security exchange markets during the interwar period. Reasons of the functional changes, which means mainly the decrease in importance, are analysed. In this context the primary investigator’s analysis contributes also to specific aspects of the economic history of the Weimar Republic and the Nazi empire. Due to a lack of date the needed statistical information concerning the period of interest is not available and therefore a statistical analysis cannot meet cliometric requirements. Therefore, the study’s concept is primary a desciptive one. On the basis of the quantitative information an identification of the functional change and the definition of stages of this process is made. The researcher tries to carve out the factors which have led to the functional change particularly during the period between 1924 and 1939. In this context the annual reports of banks, reports of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, contributions of professional journals, and documents of authorities charged with the stock exchange market, are the empirical basis for the investigation. The researcher analyzed the effects of the banking sector’s concentration-process on the stock exchange market and assessed quantitatively the functional change. On the basis of the collected time series for the period of the late 19th century until 1939 the investigator analyzed the activities at the stock markets. First, the focus on interest is on the development of investments and securities issues. Then information on the securities turnover of German capital market before 1940 are given on the basis of an estimation procedure, developed by the researcher. The sepcial conditions during the inflation between 1914 and 1923 are discussed separately and the long term effects of this hyper-inflation on the stock exchange are identified. The effects of the taxation of stock exchange market visits and the high transaction costs are discussed, too. Used sources for the investigation have been:Archives of German Public Authorities:- finance ministry of the German Reich,- imperial chancellery- Reich´s ministry of economics- reference files of the German Reichsbank- Imperial commissioner of the stock market in Berlin Official Statistics, statistics of trade associations, chambers of commerce, enterprises, the press, and scientific publications. Finally, the author made estimates and calculations. The Study’s data:Data tables are accessible via the search- and download-system HISTAT unter the Topic ‘State: Finances and Taxes’ (= Staat: Finanzen und Steuern). The Study’s data are diveded into the following parts: A. Quantitative Indicators on the Change of Functions (Quantitative Indikatoren des Funktionswandels) A.1 Structure of floatation (Struktur der Wertpapieremission ausgewählter Zeitspannen (1901-1939).)A.2 Tax revenues of exchange turnover (Börsenumsatzsteueraufkommen (1885-1939).)A.3 Vergleich des unkorrigierten mit einem fiktiv möglichen Börsenumsatzsteueraufkommen (1906-1913).A.4 Estimation of everage tax rates (Geschätzte Durchschnittssteuersätze (1884-1913).)A.5 Amount of stock companies of the German Empire (Zahl der Aktiengesellschaften im Deutschen Reich zu bestimmten Jahren (1886-1939).)A.6 Shares listed on the Berlin stock exchange at the end of the year (Die zum Jahresende an der Berliner Börse notierten Aktien (1926-1939).)A.7 Reports und Lombards der Berliner Großbanken in ...

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of monetary policy on financial asset prices in Poland. Following Gürkaynak et al. (2005) I test how many factors adequately explain the variability of short-term interest rates around MPC meetings, finding that there are two such factors. The first one has a structural interpretation as a “current interest rate change” factor, and the second one as a “future interest rate changes” factor, with the latter related to MPC communication. Regression analysis shows that, controlling for foreign interest rates and global risk aversion, both MPC actions and communication matter for government bond yields, and that communication is more important for stock prices. Furthermore, the foreign exchange rate used to depreciate (appreciate) after MPC statements signalling tighter (easier) future monetary policy. However, the effect disappeared at the end of the sample. For most of the sample the exchange rate would appreciate (depreciate) or would not change in a statistically significant manner after an increase (a decrease) of the current interest rate. The results indicate that not only changes of the current interest rate but also MPC communication matters for financial asset prices in Poland. It has important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially in a low inflation and low interest rate environment.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

What is the relationship between unemployment and inflation?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

The global stock fund sales market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing retail investor participation, favorable regulatory environments in many regions, and the ongoing shift towards passive investment strategies. While precise figures for market size and CAGR are unavailable, based on industry analysis of similar asset classes, a reasonable estimate would be a 2025 market size of approximately $20 trillion, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 7% between 2025 and 2033. This growth is fueled by several key factors. The proliferation of online brokerage platforms has significantly lowered the barriers to entry for retail investors, leading to a surge in new accounts and trading volume. Furthermore, the increasing complexity of global markets and a desire for diversified portfolios is driving demand for both actively and passively managed stock funds. However, market fluctuations and macroeconomic uncertainty represent significant restraints. Geopolitical instability, inflation, and potential interest rate hikes can impact investor sentiment and lead to volatility in the market. Competition among major players like BlackRock, Vanguard, and Fidelity Investments is intense, necessitating continuous innovation and the development of niche products to maintain market share. Segmentation analysis reveals a dynamic interplay between fund types (active vs. passive) and sales channels (direct vs. indirect). Passive funds, driven by low-cost index tracking, continue to gain popularity, although actively managed funds maintain a significant share due to the potential for higher returns, particularly for skilled fund managers. Distribution channels are also evolving; while traditional indirect sales via financial advisors remain prevalent, direct sales via online platforms are witnessing exponential growth, particularly among younger investors. Regional variations are also significant. North America and Europe represent the largest markets, followed by Asia-Pacific, which demonstrates significant growth potential due to rising middle-class incomes and increasing financial literacy. However, regulatory changes and market conditions in specific regions (such as emerging markets) will impact growth trajectories significantly over the forecast period.