According to a survey conducted by Ipsos on predictions for global issues in 2020, ** percent of Indians thought it unlikely that the major stock markets around the world would crash that year. On the other hand ** percent respondents felt this scenario was likely to happen, marking an increase compared to the previous year when ** percent of the people thought a global economic crisis was likely.

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a...

This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.

Throughout the 1920s, prices on the U.S. stock exchange rose exponentially, however, by the end of the decade, uncontrolled growth and a stock market propped up by speculation and borrowed money proved unsustainable, resulting in the Wall Street Crash of October 1929. This set a chain of events in motion that led to economic collapse - banks demanded repayment of debts, the property market crashed, and people stopped spending as unemployment rose. Within a year the country was in the midst of an economic depression, and the economy continued on a downward trend until late-1932.

It was during this time where Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) was elected president, and he assumed office in March 1933 - through a series of economic reforms and New Deal policies, the economy began to recover. Stock prices fluctuated at more sustainable levels over the next decades, and developments were in line with overall economic development, rather than the uncontrolled growth seen in the 1920s. Overall, it took over 25 years for the Dow Jones value to reach its pre-Crash peak.

As of August 2020, the S&P 500 index had lost 34 percent of its value due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the Great Crash, which began with Black Tuesday, remains the most significant loss in value in its history. That market crash lasted for 300 months and wiped 86 percent off the index value.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Nifty 50: Climb or Crash?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

In 2024, ** percent of adults in the United States invested in the stock market. This figure has remained steady over the last few years, and is still below the levels before the Great Recession, when it peaked in 2007 at ** percent. What is the stock market? The stock market can be defined as a group of stock exchanges, where investors can buy shares in a publicly traded company. In more recent years, it is estimated an increasing number of Americans are using neobrokers, making stock trading more accessible to investors. Other investments A significant number of people think stocks and bonds are the safest investments, while others point to real estate, gold, bonds, or a savings account. Since witnessing the significant one-day losses in the stock market during the Financial Crisis, many investors were turning towards these alternatives in hopes for more stability, particularly for investments with longer maturities. This could explain the decrease in this statistic since 2007. Nevertheless, some speculators enjoy chasing the short-run fluctuations, and others see value in choosing particular stocks.

Japan's main stock market index, the JP225, fell to 39432 points on July 14, 2025, losing 0.35% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 2.93%, though it remains 4.47% lower than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Japan. Japan Stock Market Index (JP225) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Interactive chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock market index for the last 100 years. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

China's main stock market index, the SHANGHAI, rose to 3520 points on July 14, 2025, gaining 0.27% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 3.86% and is up 18.35% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from China. China Shanghai Composite Stock Market Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Venezuela's main stock market index, the IBC, rose to 396202 points on July 10, 2025, gaining 1.00% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 13.14% and is up 346.15% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Venezuela. Venezuela Stock Market (IBVC) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

Data used in the paper "The emergence of critical stocks in market crash".1.
The '2015bipartite.graphml' and '2015-1_fund_stock.graphml' contains the stock networks established by the mutual funds holding data on Jun 30, 2015. While the first file has the mutual funds holding values grouped by the labels of mutual fund companies, the second one uses mutual funds holding values directly. The original data of mutual funds holding are provided by Wind Information, which is not publicly available due to Wind’s license requirement.

1. The ‘stock_style.csv’ describes which kind of investment style a stock belongs to, which is also downloaded from Wind Information.

2. The series of files named as ‘first to low *.csv’ includes the stocks which reach their limit down prices. The timing of stocks reaching limit down prices are calculated from the intraday price data provided by Thomson Reuters’ Tick History. The information of whether a stock reached its limit down price is provides by Wind Information. The original price trends data is not publicly available due to the company’s license requirement.

Interactive chart of the S&P 500 stock market index since 1927. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index dropped around ***** points in the four weeks from February 12 to March 11, 2020, but has since recovered and peaked at ********* points as of November 24, 2024. In February 2020 - just prior to the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the DJIA index stood at a little over ****** points. U.S. markets suffer as virus spreads The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a turbulent period for stock markets – the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also recorded dramatic drops. At the start of February, some analysts remained optimistic that the outbreak would ease. However, the increased spread of the virus started to hit investor confidence, prompting a record plunge in the stock markets. The Dow dropped by more than ***** points in the week from February 21 to February 28, which was a fall of **** percent – its worst percentage loss in a week since October 2008. Stock markets offer valuable economic insights The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a stock market index that monitors the share prices of the 30 largest companies in the United States. By studying the performance of the listed companies, analysts can gauge the strength of the domestic economy. If investors are confident in a company’s future, they will buy its stocks. The uncertainty of the coronavirus sparked fears of an economic crisis, and many traders decided that investment during the pandemic was too risky.

Russia's main stock market index, the MOEX, fell to 2642 points on July 11, 2025, losing 3.31% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has declined 3.94% and is down 11.21% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Russia. Russia Stock Market Index MOEX CFD - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Turkey's main stock market index, the BIST 100, rose to 10362 points on July 11, 2025, gaining 0.30% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 8.84%, though it remains 6.35% lower than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Turkey. Turkey Stock Market - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Pakistan's main stock market index, the KSE 100, rose to 136503 points on July 14, 2025, gaining 1.64% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 11.68% and is up 68.20% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Pakistan. Pakistan Stock Market (KSE100) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Indonesia's main stock market index, the JCI, rose to 7047 points on July 11, 2025, gaining 0.60% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has declined 2.18% and is down 3.82% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Indonesia. Indonesia Stock Market (JCI) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

In complex systems like financial market, risk tolerance of individuals is crucial for system resilience. The single-security price limit, designed as risk tolerance to protect investors by avoiding sharp price fluctuation, is blamed for feeding market panic in times of crash. The relationship between the critical market confidence which stabilizes the whole system and the price limit is therefore an important aspect of system resilience. Using a simplified dynamic model on networks of investors and stocks, an unexpected linear association between price limit and critical market confidence is theoretically derived and empirically verified in this paper. Our results highlight the importance of relatively “small” but critical stocks that drive the system to collapse by passing the failure from periphery to core. These small stocks, largely originating from homogeneous investment strategies across the market, has unintentionally suppressed system resilience with the exclusive increment of individual risk tolerance. Imposing random investment requirements to mitigate herding behavior can thus improve the market resilience.