Graph and download economic data for Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Interest Rates (EMVMACROINTEREST) from Jan 1985 to Oct 2025 about volatility, uncertainty, equity, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

In January 2000, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) instituted the practice of issuing a "balance of risks" statement along with their policy decision immediately following each FOMC meeting. The authors evaluate the use of the balance-of-risks statement and the market's interpretation of it. They find that the balance-of-risks statement is one of the factors that market participants use to determine the likelihood that the FOMC will adjust its target for the federal funds rate at their next meeting. Moreover, they find that, on some occasions, the FOMC behaved in such a way as to encourage the use of the balance-of-risks statement for this purpose. The clarifying statements that sometimes accompany these balance-of-risks statements, as well as general remarks made by the Chairman and other FOMC members, often provide additional useful information.

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a...

Graph and download economic data for Contributions to the Cleveland Financial Stress Index: Stock Market Crashes (DISCONTINUED) (SMCD678FRBCLE) from 1991-09-25 to 2016-05-05 about FSI, contributions, and USA.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by October 29, 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic—both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S.—showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by August 2025, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2024, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

Graph and download economic data for Stock Market Capitalization to GDP for United States (DDDM01USA156NWDB) from 1975 to 2020 about market cap, stock market, capital, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Financial Market: Share Prices for United Kingdom (SPASTT01GBQ661N) from Q1 1958 to Q3 2025 about stock market and United Kingdom.

The Federal Reserve implements its monetary policy by using open market operations in United States government securities to target the federal funds rate. A substantial decline in the stock of United States Treasury debt could interfere with the conduct of monetary policy, possibly forcing the Fed to rely more heavily on discount window lending or to conduct open market transactions in other types of securities. Either choice would cause the implementation of monetary policy to resemble the methods used by the Fed before World War II. This paper describes two things: (1) how the Fed implemented monetary policy before the war and (2) the conflicts that arose within the Fed over the allocation of private-sector credit when discount window loans and Fed purchases of private securities were a substantial component of Federal Reserve credit. Those conflicts help explain the Fed's failure to respond vigorously to the Great Depression. The experience suggests that a renewed reliance on the discount window or on open market operations in securities other than those issued by the United States Treasury could hamper the conduct of monetary policy if it leads to increased pressure on the Fed to affect the allocation of credit.

Graph and download economic data for Financial Market: Share Prices for United States (SPASTT01USM661N) from Jan 1957 to Oct 2025 about stock market and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Stock Market Turnover Ratio (Value Traded/Capitalization) for Finland (DDEM01FIA156NWDB) from 1982 to 2004 about Finland, ratio, and stock market.

Graph and download economic data for Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from 2015-12-02 to 2025-12-01 about stock market, average, industry, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Financial Market: Share Prices for Germany (SPASTT01DEM661N) from Jan 1960 to Oct 2025 about stock market and Germany.

Graph and download economic data for Financial Market: Share Prices for Poland (SPASTT01PLQ661N) from Q3 1991 to Q3 2025 about Poland and stock market.

Graph and download economic data for Stock Market Total Value Traded to GDP for United States (DDDM02USA156NWDB) from 1975 to 2019 about market cap, stock market, trade, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Index, Level (BOGZ1FL073164013Q) from Q4 1970 to Q2 2025 about mutual funds, equity, liabilities, interest rate, interest, rate, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Financial Market: Share Prices for United Kingdom (SPASTT01GBM661N) from Dec 1957 to Oct 2025 about stock market and United Kingdom.

Graph and download economic data for Stock Market Capitalization to GDP for World (DISCONTINUED) (DDDM011WA156NWDB) from 1975 to 2015 about market cap, stock market, capital, and GDP.

Graph and download economic data for Financial Market: Share Prices for Germany (SPASTT01DEQ661N) from Q1 1960 to Q3 2025 about stock market and Germany.