Throughout the 1920s, prices on the U.S. stock exchange rose exponentially, however, by the end of the decade, uncontrolled growth and a stock market propped up by speculation and borrowed money proved unsustainable, resulting in the Wall Street Crash of October 1929. This set a chain of events in motion that led to economic collapse - banks demanded repayment of debts, the property market crashed, and people stopped spending as unemployment rose. Within a year the country was in the midst of an economic depression, and the economy continued on a downward trend until late-1932.

It was during this time where Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) was elected president, and he assumed office in March 1933 - through a series of economic reforms and New Deal policies, the economy began to recover. Stock prices fluctuated at more sustainable levels over the next decades, and developments were in line with overall economic development, rather than the uncontrolled growth seen in the 1920s. Overall, it took over 25 years for the Dow Jones value to reach its pre-Crash peak.

Over the course of their first terms in office, no U.S. president in the past 100 years saw as much of a decline in stock prices as Herbert Hoover, and none saw as much of an increase as Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) - these were the two presidents in office during the Great Depression. While Hoover is not generally considered to have caused the Wall Street Crash in 1929, less than a year into his term in office, he is viewed as having contributed to its fall, and exacerbating the economic collapse that followed. In contrast, Roosevelt is viewed as overseeing the economic recovery and restoring faith in the stock market played an important role in this.

By the end of Hoover's time in office, stock prices were 82 percent lower than when he entered the White House, whereas prices had risen by 237 percent by the end of Roosevelt's first term. While this is the largest price gain of any president within just one term, it is important to note that stock prices were valued at 317 on the Dow Jones index when Hoover took office, but just 51 when FDR took office four years later - stock prices had peaked in August 1929 at 380 on the Dow Jones index, but the highest they ever reached under FDR was 187, and it was not until late 1954 that they reached pre-Crash levels once more.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a stock market index used to analyze trends in the stock market. While many economists prefer to use other, market-weighted indices (the DJIA is price-weighted) as they are perceived to be more representative of the overall market, the Dow Jones remains one of the most commonly-used indices today, and its longevity allows for historical events and long-term trends to be analyzed over extended periods of time. Average changes in yearly closing prices, for example, shows how markets developed year on year. Figures were more sporadic in early years, but the impact of major events can be observed throughout. For example, the occasions where a decrease of more than 25 percent was observed each coincided with a major recession; these include the Post-WWI Recession in 1920, the Great Depression in 1929, the Recession of 1937-38, the 1973-75 Recession, and the Great Recession in 2008.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

Between the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the end of the Great Depression in the late 1930s, the Soviet Union saw the largest growth in its gross domestic product, growing by more than 70 percent between 1929 and 1937/8. The Great Depression began in 1929 in the United States, following the stock market crash in late October. The inter-connectedness of the global economy, particularly between North America and Europe, then came to the fore as the collapse of the U.S. economy exposed the instabilities of other industrialized countries. In contrast, the economic isolation of the Soviet Union and its detachment from the capitalist system meant that it was relatively shielded from these events. 1929-1932 The Soviet Union was one of just three countries listed that experienced GDP growth during the first three years of the Great Depression, with Bulgaria and Denmark being the other two. Bulgaria experienced the largest GDP growth over these three years, increasing by 27 percent, although it was also the only country to experience a decline in growth over the second period. The majority of other European countries saw their GDP growth fall in the depression's early years. However, none experienced the same level of decline as the United States, which dropped by 28 percent. 1932-1938 In the remaining years before the Second World War, all of the listed countries saw their GDP grow significantly, particularly Germany, the Soviet Union, and the United States. Coincidentally, these were the three most powerful nations during the Second World War. This recovery was primarily driven by industrialization, and, again, the U.S., USSR, and Germany all experienced the highest level of industrial growth between 1932 and 1938.

On October 29, 1929, the U.S. experienced the most devastating stock market crash in it's history. The Wall Street Crash of 1929 set in motion the Great Depression, which lasted for twelve years and affected virtually all industrialized countries. In the United States, GDP fell to it's lowest recorded level of just 57 billion U.S dollars in 1933, before rising again shortly before the Second World War. After the war, GDP fluctuated, but it increased gradually until the Great Recession in 2008. Real GDP Real GDP allows us to compare GDP over time, by adjusting all figures for inflation. In this case, all numbers have been adjusted to the value of the US dollar in FY2012. While GDP rose every year between 1946 and 2008, when this is adjusted for inflation it can see that the real GDP dropped at least once in every decade except the 1960s and 2010s. The Great Recession Apart from the Great Depression, and immediately after WWII, there have been two times where both GDP and real GDP dropped together. The first was during the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 until June 2009 in the US, although its impact was felt for years after this. After the collapse of the financial sector in the US, the government famously bailed out some of the country's largest banking and lending institutions. Since recovery began in late 2009, US GDP has grown year-on-year, and reached 21.4 trillion dollars in 2019. The coronavirus pandemic and the associated lockdowns then saw GDP fall again, for the first time in a decade. As economic recovery from the pandemic has been compounded by supply chain issues, inflation, and rising global geopolitical instability, it remains to be seen what the future holds for the U.S. economy.

In 2024, 62 percent of adults in the United States invested in the stock market. This figure has remained steady over the last few years, and is still below the levels before the Great Recession, when it peaked in 2007 at 65 percent. What is the stock market? The stock market can be defined as a group of stock exchanges, where investors can buy shares in a publicly traded company. In more recent years, it is estimated an increasing number of Americans are using neobrokers, making stock trading more accessible to investors. Other investments A significant number of people think stocks and bonds are the safest investments, while others point to real estate, gold, bonds, or a savings account. Since witnessing the significant one-day losses in the stock market during the Financial Crisis, many investors were turning towards these alternatives in hopes for more stability, particularly for investments with longer maturities. This could explain the decrease in this statistic since 2007. Nevertheless, some speculators enjoy chasing the short-run fluctuations, and others see value in choosing particular stocks.

The Federal National Mortgage Association, commonly known as Fannie Mae, was created by the U.S. congress in 1938, in order to maintain liquidity and stability in the domestic mortgage market. The company is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), meaning that while it was a publicly traded company for most of its history, it was still supported by the federal government. While there is no legally binding guarantee of shares in GSEs or their securities, it is generally acknowledged that the U.S. government is highly unlikely to let these enterprises fail. Due to these implicit guarantees, GSEs are able to access financing at a reduced cost of interest. Fannie Mae's main activity is the purchasing of mortgage loans from their originators (banks, mortgage brokers etc.) and packaging them into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in order to ease the access of U.S. homebuyers to housing credit. The early 2000s U.S. mortgage finance boom During the early 2000s, Fannie Mae was swept up in the U.S. housing boom which eventually led to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The association's stated goal of increasing access of lower income families to housing finance coalesced with the interests of private mortgage lenders and Wall Street investment banks, who had become heavily reliant on the housing market to drive profits. Private lenders had begun to offer riskier mortgage loans in the early 2000s due to low interest rates in the wake of the "Dot Com" crash and their need to maintain profits through increasing the volume of loans on their books. The securitized products created by these private lenders did not maintain the standards which had traditionally been upheld by GSEs. Due to their market share being eaten into by private firms, however, the GSEs involved in the mortgage markets began to also lower their standards, resulting in a 'race to the bottom'. The fall of Fannie Mae The lowering of lending standards was a key factor in creating the housing bubble, as mortgages were now being offered to borrowers with little or no ability to repay the loans. Combined with fraudulent practices from credit ratings agencies, who rated the junk securities created from these mortgage loans as being of the highest standard, this led directly to the financial panic that erupted on Wall Street beginning in 2007. As the U.S. economy slowed down in 2006, mortgage delinquency rates began to spike. Fannie Mae's losses in the mortgage security market in 2006 and 2007, along with the losses of the related GSE 'Freddie Mac', had caused its share value to plummet, stoking fears that it may collapse. On September 7th 2008, Fannie Mae was taken into government conservatorship along with Freddie Mac, with their stocks being delisted from stock exchanges in 2010. This act was seen as an unprecedented direct intervention into the economy by the U.S. government, and a symbol of how far the U.S. housing market had fallen.

Explore the stability of gold prices amidst economic uncertainty in the U.S., despite slight dips and fluctuating market conditions.

Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank on Wall Street, declared bankruptcy on the 15th of September 2008, becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. The investment house, which was founded in the mid-19th century, had become heavily involved in the U.S. housing bubble in the early 2000s, with its large holdings of toxic mortgage-backed securities (MBS) ultimately causing the bank's downfall. The bank had expanded rapidly following the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999, which meant that investment banks could also engage in commercial banking activities. Lehman vertically integrated their mortgage business, buying smaller commercial enterprises that originated housing loans, which allowed the bank to expand its MBS holdings. The downfall of Lehman and the crash of '08 As the U.S. housing market began to slow down in 2006, the default rate on housing loans began to spike, triggering losses for Lehman from their MBS portfolio. Lehman's main competitor in mortgage financing, Bear Stearns, was bought by J.P. Morgan Chase in order to prevent bankruptcy in March 2008, leading investors and lenders to become increasingly concerned about the bank's financial health. As the bank relied on short-term funding on money markets in order to meet its obligations, the news of its huge losses in the third-quarter of 2008 further prevented it from funding itself on financial markets. By September, it was clear that without external assistance, the bank would fail. As its losses from credit default swaps mounted due to the deepening crash in the housing market, Lehman was forced to declare bankruptcy on September 15, as no buyer could be found to save the bank. The collapse of Lehman triggered panic in global financial markets, forcing the U.S. government to step in and bail-out the insurance giant AIG the next day on September 16. The effects of this financial crisis hit the non-financial economy hard, causing a global recession in 2009.

According to cognitive market research, the global antidepressant drugs market size was valued at USD xx billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD xx billion at a CAGR of xx% during the forecast period.

Antidepressants are physician-recommended medications to treat depression. Depression is more than just a few days of moderate sadness.
 Antidepressant market growth has been positively influenced by the COVID-19 epidemic because of an increase in product sales related to the disaster.
The drug class segment is divided into reuptake inhibitors, serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, monoamine oxidase inhibitors, tricyclic antidepressants, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, serotonin antagonists, and others.
The major depressive disorder segment dominated the market, with a market share of xx% in 2024.
The route of administration segment is divided into oral and injectable. The oral segment dominated the market, with a market share of xx% in 2024.
The hospital pharmacy segment dominated the market, with a market share of xx% in 2024.
North America garnered a major share in the antidepressant drugs market in 2024 and is expected to continue to dominate during the forecast period

Market Dynamics of the Antidepressant Drugs Market

Key Drivers of the Antidepressant Drugs Market

Growing awareness and reduced stigma will significantly expand the market growth

The growing awareness of psychological health concerns and the initiatives to lessen the stigma associated with seeking treatment are major factors propelling the market for antidepressant medications. Public knowledge of psychological health concerns, such as anxiety and depression, has grown as a result of developing awareness campaigns and educational initiatives. The number of individuals who identify the signs of mental health disorders and seek professional treatment will rise, which will raise the need for antidepressant drugs. Educating the public about mental health illnesses, accessible treatments, and the need to get assistance is the aim of educational efforts and programs. Media campaigns that feature true tales, celebrity endorsements, and accurate portrayals of psychological health issues contribute to public awareness.

Increased destigmatization of mental health issues propelling the market growth

As society's perceptions of mental health shift, there is a growing understanding of the prevalence and consequences of mental health conditions, such as anxiety and depression. This changing view has led more people to seek care for mental health difficulties, increasing the demand for effective therapy. Moreover, the reduced stigma has encouraged pharmaceutical companies to invest in the development of new, more potent antidepressants. To satisfy the needs of numerous patients, the industry has expanded to provide a greater range of treatment options.

• For instance, the data updated by the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) in January 2022 shows depression is one of the most common mental health disorders in the US, and an estimated 46.9% of adolescents with a major depressive episode and significant impairment received treatment in the previous year. (Source:https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/mental-illness )

Restraints of the Antidepressant Drugs Market

Side effects and safety concerns of antidepressant drugs may hamper the market growth

Patients may be reluctant to begin or continue antidepressant medication due to worries about potential side effects and their general well-being. Reduced market development and poorer solution rates may result from patient resistance and non-compliance. Regulations and warning labels have the potential to negatively affect consumers' perceptions and reduce their belief in the safety of antidepressant drugs, which can hinder the growth of the market. Unfavorable events and health issues may lead to legal actions and lawsuits against medication companies. Legal disputes may be detrimental to a business's profits, the reputation of an antidepressant, and consumer trust.

How Did COVID-19 Impact the Antidepressant Drugs Market

Antidepressant market growth has been positively influenced by the COVID-19 epidemic because of an increase in product sales related to the disaster. Furthermore, the market expansion has been helped by important tactics used by biotechn...

Market Overview:

The 7 major mood disorders markets reached a value of US$ 3.7 Billion in 2023. Looking forward, IMARC Group expects the 7MM to reach US$ 4.5 Billion by 2034, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 1.78% during 2024-2034.

Report Attribute	Key Statistics
Base Year	2023
Forecast Years	2024-2034
Historical Years	2018-2023
Market Size in 2023	US$ 3.7 Billion
Market Forecast in 2034	US$ 4.5 Billion
Market Growth Rate 2024-2034	1.78%

The mood disorders market has been comprehensively analyzed in IMARC's new report titled "Mood Disorders Market: Epidemiology, Industry Trends, Share, Size, Growth, Opportunity, and Forecast 2024-2034". Mood disorders refer to a group of mental health conditions characterized by significant and persistent disturbances in a person's mood or emotional state. These illnesses can have a profound impact on the patient's daily functioning, relationships, and overall quality of life. The common indications of mood disorders include a persistent feeling of sadness, hopelessness, emptiness, or worthlessness, fatigue, decreased energy, loss of interest or pleasure, changes in appetite or weight, sleep disturbances, difficulty concentrating, agitation, suicidal ideation, chronic irritability, etc. Individuals suffering from these disorders may also experience manic symptoms, such as periods of elevated mood, increased energy, racing thoughts, impulsive behavior, etc. The diagnosis of these ailments involves a combination of methods to determine the patient's clinical features, along with personal and family history. Mental health professionals commonly refer to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5), which provides specific criteria for diagnosing different mood disorders. Various standardized questionnaires, such as the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) or the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAM-D), are also used to assess the severity and frequency of symptoms.

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The increasing cases of abnormalities in the structure or functioning of the brain regions involved in regulating emotions, including the amygdala or prefrontal cortex, are primarily driving the mood disorders market. In addition to this, the rising prevalence of imbalances in neurotransmitters, like serotonin, dopamine, norepinephrine, etc., that can disrupt communication between neurons is also creating a positive outlook for the market. Moreover, the widespread adoption of dialectical behavior therapy to develop healthier coping mechanisms and reduce emotional vulnerability is further bolstering the market growth. Apart from this, the inflating application of typical antipsychotics, such as aripiprazole, quetiapine, olanzapine, etc., which work by blocking dopamine receptors in various regions of the brain to stabilize mood and alleviate agitation or aggression, is acting as another significant growth-inducing factor. Additionally, the emerging popularity of non-invasive transcranial magnetic stimulation techniques, since they allow for more precise and localized activation of specific brain areas, thereby modulating neuronal activity and potentially restoring normal functioning, is expected to drive the mood disorders market during the forecast period.

IMARC Group's new report provides an exhaustive analysis of the mood disorders market in the United States, EU5 (Germany, Spain, Italy, France, and United Kingdom) and Japan. This includes treatment practices, in-market, and pipeline drugs, share of individual therapies, market performance across the seven major markets, market performance of key companies and their drugs, etc. The report also provides the current and future patient pool across the seven major markets. According to the report the United States has the largest patient pool for mood disorders and also represents the largest market for its treatment. Furthermore, the current treatment practice/algorithm, market drivers, challenges, opportunities, reimbursement scenario and unmet medical needs, etc. have also been provided in the report. This report is a must-read for manufacturers, investors, business strategists, researchers, consultants, and all those who have any kind of stake or are planning to foray into the mood disorders market in any manner.

Time Period of the Study

• Base Year: 2023
• Historical Period: 2018-2023
• Market Forecast: 2024-2034

Countries Covered

• United States
• Germany
• France
• United Kingdom
• Italy
• Spain
• Japan
  

Analysis Covered Across Each Country

• Historical, current, and future epidemiology scenario
• Historical, current, and future performance of the mood disorders market
• Historical, current, and future performance of various therapeutic categories in the market
• Sales of various drugs across the mood disorders market
• Reimbursement scenario in the market
• In-market and pipeline drugs

Competitive Landscape:

This report also provides a detailed analysis of the current mood disorders marketed drugs and late-stage pipeline drugs.

In-Market Drugs

• Drug Overview
• Mechanism of Action
• Regulatory Status
• Clinical Trial Results
• Drug Uptake and Market Performance
  

Late-Stage Pipeline Drugs

• Drug Overview
• Mechanism of Action
• Regulatory Status
• Clinical Trial Results
• Drug Uptake and Market Performance
  

Drugs	Company Name
Lamictal (Lamotrigine)	GlaxoSmithKline
Seroquel XR (Quetiapine)	AstraZeneca
Depakote (Valproate semisodium)	AbbVie
Igalmi (Dexmedetomidine)	BioXcel Therapeutics
Viibryd (Vilazodone)	AbbVie
SEP363856	Otsuka Pharmaceutical/Sumitomo Pharma/Sunovion Pharmaceuticals
TAK 653	Takeda
PDC1421	BioLite Inc
PRAX 114	Praxis Precision Medicines
GATE-251	Gate Neurosciences

*Kindly note that the drugs in the above table only represent a partial list of marketed/pipeline drugs, and the complete list has been provided in the report.

Key Questions Answered in this Report:

Market Insights

• How has the mood disorders market performed so far and how will it perform in the coming years?
• What are the markets shares of various therapeutic segments in 2023 and how are they expected to perform till 2034?
• What was the country-wise size of the mood disorders market across the seven major markets in 2023 and what will it look like in 2034?
• What is the growth rate of the mood disorders market across the seven major markets and what will be the expected growth over the next ten years?
• What are the key unmet needs in the market?
  

Epidemiology Insights

• What is the number of prevalent cases (2018-2034) of mood disorders across the seven major markets?
• What is the number of prevalent cases (2018-2034) of mood disorders by age across the seven major markets?
• What is the number of prevalent cases (2018-2034) of mood disorders by gender across the seven major markets?
• What is the number of prevalent cases (2018-2034) of mood disorders by type across the seven major markets?
• How many patients are diagnosed (2018-2034) with mood disorders across the seven major markets?
• What is the size of the mood disorders patient pool (2018-2023) across the seven major markets?
• What would be the forecasted patient pool (2024-2034) across the seven major markets?
• What are the key factors driving the epidemiological trend of mood disorders?
• What will be the

The global Anxiety Disorders and Depression Treatment Market was valued at around US$ 11.2 billion in 2021. With a projected CAGR of 3.4% for the next ten years, the market is likely to reach a valuation of nearly US$ 16.1 billion by the end of 2032. In the upcoming years, market growth is anticipated to be accelerated by efforts made jointly by pharmaceutical firms, NGOs, mental health groups, and government initiatives to raise public awareness.

Report Attributes	Details
Anxiety Disorders And Depression Treatment Market Size (2021A)	US$ 11.2 billion
Estimated Market Value (2022E)	US$ 11.5 billion
Forecasted Market Value (2032F)	US$ 16.1 billion
Global Market Growth Rate (2022 to 2032)	3.4% CAGR
United States Growth Rate (2022 to 2032)	3.2% CAGR
Key Companies Covered	Pfizer Inc. H. Lundbeck A/S Glaxo SmithKline pharmaceuticals ltd. Merc Co Inc. Eli Lilly & Company

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

From the Summer of 2007 until the end of 2009 (at least), the world was gripped by a series of economic crises commonly known as the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and the Great Recession (2008-2009). The financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which caused panic on Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York. Due to the outsized nature of the U.S. economy compared to other countries and particularly the centrality of U.S. finance for the world economy, the crisis spread quickly to other countries, affecting most regions across the globe. By 2009, global GDP growth was in negative territory, with international credit markets frozen, international trade contracting, and tens of millions of workers being made unemployed.

Global similarities, global differences

Since the 1980s, the world economy had entered a period of integration and globalization. This process particularly accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War (1947-1991). This was the period of the 'Washington Consensus', whereby the U.S. and international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF promoted policies of economic liberalization across the globe. This increasing interdependence and openness to the global economy meant that when the crisis hit in 2007, many countries experienced the same issues. This is particularly evident in the synchronization of the recessions in the most advanced economies of the G7. Nevertheless, the aggregate global GDP number masks the important regional differences which occurred during the recession. While the more advanced economies of North America, Western Europe, and Japan were all hit hard, along with countries who are reliant on them for trade or finance, large emerging economies such as India and China bucked this trend. In particular, China's huge fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009 likely did much to prevent the global economy from sliding further into a depression. In 2009, while the United States' GDP sank to -2.6 percent, China's GDP, as reported by national authorities, was almost 10 percent.

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

The Great Recession was a period of economic contraction which came in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. The recession was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and subsequent bankruptcies among Wall Street financial institutions, the most significant of which being the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. These economic convulsions caused consumer confidence, measured by the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), to drop sharply in 2007 and the beginning of 2008. How does the Consumer Confidence Index work? The CCI measures household's expectation of their future economic situation and, consequently, their likely future spending and savings decisions. A score of 100 in the index would indicate a neutral economic outlook, with consumers neither being optimistic nor pessimistic about the near future. Scores below 100 are then more pessimistic, while scores above 100 indicate optimism about the economy. Consumer confidence can have a self-fulfilling effect on the economy, as when consumers are pessimistic about the economy, they tend to save and postpone spending, contracting aggregate demand and causing the economy to slow down. Conversely, when consumers are optimistic and willing to spend, this can have a reinforcing effect as wages and employment may rise when consumers spend more. CCI and the Great Recession As the reality of the trouble which the U.S. financial sector was in set in over 2007, consumer confidence dropped sharply from being slightly positive, to being deeply pessimistic by the Summer of 2008. While confidence began to slowly rebound up until September 2008, with the panic caused by Lehman's bankruptcy and the freezing of new credit creation, the CCI plummeted once more, reaching its lowest point during the recession in February 2008. The U.S. government stepped in to prevent the bankruptcy of AIG in 2008, promising to do the same for any future possible failures in the financial system. This 'backstopping' policy, whereby the government assured that the economy would not be allowed to fall further into crisis, along with the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies used to restart the economy, contributed to a rebound in consumer confidence in 2009 and 2010. In spite of this, consumers still remained pessimistic about the economy.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

The Great Recession (2008-2009) was an economic recession largely caused by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent financial crisis on Wall Street. The administration of President George W. Bush took unprecedented measures to backstop the U.S. financial system and wider economy in 2008 with its Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). This program was designed to purchase non-performing assets from financial institutions, such as subprime mortgage loans and related financial instruments, which had been responsible for the crisis. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and his department were given an initial authorization to spend up to 700 billion U.S. dollars on the program, although this was later lowered to 475 billion. From 2008 to 2012, the TARP program disbursed 417.6 billion U.S. dollars to purchase troubled assets and equity in the companies which held such assets. Of these funds, the majority was spent on the bank support programs, while significant amounts also went to bailouts of the car manufacturing industry and to the insurance giant American International Group (AIG).

As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.