This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a demographic shift of an ageing population and significant technological automation. So if you think that stocks or equities or ETFs are the best place to put your money in 2022, you might want to think again. The crash of the OTC and small-cap market since February 2021 has been quite an indication of what a correction looks like. According to the Motley Fool what happens after major downturns in the market historically speaking? In each of the previous four instances that the S&P 500's Shiller P/E shot above and sustained 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to 89% of its value. So what's what we too are due for, reversion to the mean will be realistically brutal after the Fed's hyper-extreme intervention has run its course. Of course what the Fed stimulus has really done is simply allowed the 1% to get a whole lot richer to the point of wealth inequality spiraling out of control in the decades ahead leading us likely to a dystopia in an unfair and unequal version of BigTech capitalism. This has also led to a trend of short squeeze to these tech stocks, as shown in recent years' data. Of course the Fed has to say that's its done all of these things for the people, employment numbers and the labor market. Women in the workplace have been set behind likely 15 years in social progress due to the pandemic and the Fed's response. While the 89% lost during the Great Depression would be virtually impossible today thanks to ongoing intervention from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill, a correction of 20% to 50% would be pretty fair and simply return the curve back to a normal trajectory as interest rates going back up eventually in the 2023 to 2025 period. It's very unlikely the market has taken Fed tapering into account (priced-in), since the euphoria of a can't miss market just keeps pushing the markets higher. But all good things must come to an end. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data from July. This report showed that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 5.2% over the past 12 months. While the Fed and economists promise us this inflation is temporary, others are not so certain. As you print so much money, the money you have is worth less and certain goods cost more. Wage gains in some industries cannot be taken back, they are permanent - in the service sector like restaurants, hospitality and travel that have been among the hardest hit. The pandemic has led to a paradigm shift in the future of work, and that too is not temporary. The Great Resignation means white collar jobs with be more WFM than ever before, with a new software revolution, different transport and energy behaviors and so forth. Climate change alone could slow down global GDP in the 21st century. How can inflation be temporary when so many trends don't appear to be temporary? Sure the price of lumber or used-cars could be temporary, but a global chip shortage is exasperating the automobile sector. The stock market isn't even behaving like it cares about anything other than the Fed, and its $billions of dollars of buying bonds each month. Some central banks will start to taper about December, 2021 (like the European). However Delta could further mutate into a variant that makes the first generation of vaccines less effective. Such a macro event could be enough to trigger the correction we've been speaking about. So stay safe, and keep your money safe. The Last Dance of the 2009 bull market could feel especially more painful because we've been spoiled for so long in the markets. We can barely remember what March, 2020 felt like. Some people sold their life savings simply due to scare tactics by the likes of Bill Ackman. His scare tactics on CNBC won him likely hundreds of millions as the stock market tanked. Hedge funds further gamed the Reddit and Gamestop movement, orchestrating them and leading the new retail investors into meme speculation and a whole bunch of other unsavory things like options trading at such scale we've never seen before. It's not just inflation and higher interest rates, it's how absurdly high valuations have become. Still correlation does not imply causation. Just because inflation has picked up, it doesn't guarantee that stocks will head lower. Nevertheless, weaker buying power associated with higher inflation can't be overlooked as a potential negative for the U.S. economy and equities. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.7. This is 97% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.5 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This is just math, folks. History is saying the stock market is 2x its true value. So why and who would be full on the market or an asset class like crypto that is mostly speculative in nature to begin with? Study the following on a historical basis, and due your own due diligence as to the health of the markets: Debt-to-GDP ratio Call to put ratio

Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank on Wall Street, declared bankruptcy on the 15th of September 2008, becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. The investment house, which was founded in the mid-19th century, had become heavily involved in the U.S. housing bubble in the early 2000s, with its large holdings of toxic mortgage-backed securities (MBS) ultimately causing the bank's downfall. The bank had expanded rapidly following the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999, which meant that investment banks could also engage in commercial banking activities. Lehman vertically integrated their mortgage business, buying smaller commercial enterprises that originated housing loans, which allowed the bank to expand its MBS holdings. The downfall of Lehman and the crash of '08 As the U.S. housing market began to slow down in 2006, the default rate on housing loans began to spike, triggering losses for Lehman from their MBS portfolio. Lehman's main competitor in mortgage financing, Bear Stearns, was bought by J.P. Morgan Chase in order to prevent bankruptcy in March 2008, leading investors and lenders to become increasingly concerned about the bank's financial health. As the bank relied on short-term funding on money markets in order to meet its obligations, the news of its huge losses in the third-quarter of 2008 further prevented it from funding itself on financial markets. By September, it was clear that without external assistance, the bank would fail. As its losses from credit default swaps mounted due to the deepening crash in the housing market, Lehman was forced to declare bankruptcy on September 15, as no buyer could be found to save the bank. The collapse of Lehman triggered panic in global financial markets, forcing the U.S. government to step in and bail-out the insurance giant AIG the next day on September 16. The effects of this financial crisis hit the non-financial economy hard, causing a global recession in 2009.

Panama's main stock market index, the BVPSI, fell to 513 points on August 22, 2025, losing 0.00% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 4.30% and is up 16.20% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Panama. Panama Stock Market (BVPSI) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Background

Taiwan is famous for various tech companies, such as TSMC and Foxconn and vital supply chain location. Most of Taiwanese tech companies are listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange. The Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index(TAIEX) is a stock market index for companies traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). TAIEX covers all of the listed stocks excluding preferred stocks, full-delivery stocks and newly listed stocks, which are listed for less than one calendar month. It was first published in 1967 by TWSE with 1966 being the base year with a value of 100.

Acknowledgements

All data from 1. https://www.taiwanindex.com.tw/index/history?id=t00&start=2000%2F01%2F01&end= 2. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETWII/history?p=%5ETWII 3. https://www.stat.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=4

Task

Unlike stocks of each companies, TAIEX is an index that can represent Taiwan economic even part of world's economic. Can we predict future stock price based on past stock price? Can we improve prediction by adding variables?

Key information about Netherlands AEX

• Netherlands AEX closed at 921.9 points in Feb 2025, compared with 921.9 points at the previous month end
• Netherlands Equity Market Index: Month End: AEX data is updated monthly, available from Nov 2002 to Feb 2025, with an average number of 451.4 points
• The data reached an all-time high of 923.9 points in Jun 2024 and a record low of 217.0 points in Mar 2009

United States CSI: Savings: Stock Market Increase Probability: Next Yr: 75-99% data was reported at 32.000 % in May 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 31.000 % for Apr 2018. United States CSI: Savings: Stock Market Increase Probability: Next Yr: 75-99% data is updated monthly, averaging 26.000 % from Jun 2002 (Median) to May 2018, with 191 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 38.000 % in Sep 2017 and a record low of 9.000 % in Mar 2009. United States CSI: Savings: Stock Market Increase Probability: Next Yr: 75-99% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H026: Consumer Sentiment Index: Savings & Retirement. The question was: What do you think the percent change that this one thousand dollar investment will increase in value in the year ahead, so that it is worth more than one thousand dollars one year from now?

Belgium: Stock market return, percent: The latest value from 2021 is 17.82 percent, an increase from -15.98 percent in 2020. In comparison, the world average is 32.21 percent, based on data from 87 countries. Historically, the average for Belgium from 1998 to 2021 is 4.13 percent. The minimum value, -30.36 percent, was reached in 2009 while the maximum of 35.66 percent was recorded in 1998.

Zimbabwe's main stock market index, the ZSI Industrials, fell to 204 points on August 21, 2025, losing 0.15% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 2.94% and is up 0.15% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe Stock Market - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Stock Market Capitalization to GDP for Saudi Arabia (DDDM01SAA156NWDB) from 2009 to 2020 about Saudi Arabia, market cap, stock market, capital, and GDP.

Android maintained its position as the leading mobile operating system worldwide in the first quarter of 2025 with a market share of about ***** percent. Android's closest rival, Apple's iOS, had a market share of approximately ***** percent during the same period. The leading mobile operating systems Both unveiled in 2007, Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS have evolved through incremental updates introducing new features and capabilities. The latest version of iOS, iOS 18, was released in September 2024, while the most recent Android iteration, Android 15, was made available in September 2023. A key difference between the two systems concerns hardware - iOS is only available on Apple devices, whereas Android ships with devices from a range of manufacturers such as Samsung, Google and OnePlus. In addition, Apple has had far greater success in bringing its users up to date. As of February 2024, ** percent of iOS users had iOS 17 installed, while in the same month only ** percent of Android users ran the latest version. The rise of the smartphone From around 2010, the touchscreen smartphone revolution had a major impact on sales of basic feature phones, as the sales of smartphones increased from *** million units in 2008 to **** billion units in 2023. In 2020, smartphone sales decreased to **** billion units due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Apple, Samsung, and lately also Xiaomi, were the big winners in this shift towards smartphones, with BlackBerry and Nokia among those unable to capitalize.

The statistic depicts the number of contracts for single stock options traded at selected stock exchanges worldwide in 2009. That year, the stock market MexDer traded ******* contracts for single stock options.

Apple held the largest slice of the global smartphone market by shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024, followed by Samsung. Xiaomi has taken a tight grip on the third position, accounting for a market share of ** percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. Samsung and Apple smartphone sales Smartphone vendors have been suffering from the events of the past couple of years, including the pandemic and the economic downturn. However, they all appear to be recovering, as shown by the recent increase in shipments. For instance, mostly based on the main line of Galaxy Series, Samsung's smartphone shipments totaled nearly ***** million units globally in 2024. Next to Samsung, Apple is a major manufacturer of smartphones worldwide, with the company shipping more than *** million iPhones worldwide in 2024. Apple’s sales tend to be very cyclical, peaking in the fourth quarter each year, much like in the fourth quarter of 2023, when they took the first spot in terms of units shipped globally with around **** units. Xiaomi in the lead While Apple and Samsung are typically the two major companies challenging for the top spot, Huawei had provided a strong challenge in recent years. Particularly, the Chinese company managed to climb the smartphone market ladder between 2011 and 2024, recording shipments of over ** million smartphones in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, strong performances from rivals like Xiaomi and the effects of the U.S. trade ban have since seen Huawei fall outside the list of top five vendors by smartphone shipments.

The dataset shows average of Share Price Indices and Market Capitalisation

Note: 1. Market capitalisation data are as at end-December up to 1987-88 and at end-March from 1988-89 onwards. 2. Compilation of RBI index was discontinued by the Reserve Bank of India since 1999-2000. Similarly, the compilation of data on the All-India market capitalisation was discontinued by Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), since 1999-2000. 3. BSE 100 Index introduced from October 14, 1996 was previously known as BSE National Index. BSE National Index (Base: 1983-84 = 100) comprised 100 stocks listed at five major stock exchanges in India - Mumbai, Calcutta, Delhi, Ahmedabad and Madras, while BSE 100 index into account only the prices of stocks listed at BSE. 4. BSE 100 index has been re-based as 1983-84=58 with effect from June 04, 2012. Since 2009-10, data is based on re-based index value of 58.

Luxembourg: Stock market return, percent: The latest value from 2021 is 42.2 percent, an increase from -18.09 percent in 2020. In comparison, the world average is 32.21 percent, based on data from 87 countries. Historically, the average for Luxembourg from 2000 to 2021 is 4.54 percent. The minimum value, -38.03 percent, was reached in 2009 while the maximum of 48.02 percent was recorded in 2000.

Bulgaria: Stock market return, percent: The latest value from 2021 is 18.54 percent, an increase from -19.27 percent in 2020. In comparison, the world average is 32.21 percent, based on data from 87 countries. Historically, the average for Bulgaria from 2001 to 2021 is 15.4 percent. The minimum value, -62.64 percent, was reached in 2009 while the maximum of 124.98 percent was recorded in 2003.

Italy: Stock market return, percent: The latest value from 2021 is 25.13 percent, an increase from -6.25 percent in 2020. In comparison, the world average is 32.21 percent, based on data from 87 countries. Historically, the average for Italy from 1998 to 2021 is 1.88 percent. The minimum value, -30.31 percent, was reached in 2009 while the maximum of 30.93 percent was recorded in 1998.

The graph illustrates the market share of IT security products vendors in 2009.

Graph and download economic data for Stock Market Capitalization to GDP for Russian Federation (DDDM01RUA156NWDB) from 2009 to 2020 about market cap, Russia, stock market, capital, and GDP.

Ukrainian Exchange: UX Index data was reported at 1,748.310 26Mar2009=500 in Nov 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1,740.810 26Mar2009=500 for Oct 2018. Ukrainian Exchange: UX Index data is updated monthly, averaging 1,114.380 26Mar2009=500 from Jan 2008 (Median) to Nov 2018, with 131 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2,890.160 26Mar2009=500 in Feb 2011 and a record low of 483.420 26Mar2009=500 in Feb 2009. Ukrainian Exchange: UX Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ukrainian Exchange. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ukraine – Table UA.Z001: Stock Exchange: Index.

This dataset is about book subjects. It has 1 row and is filtered where the books is A history of the London stock market, 1945-2009. It features 4 columns: authors, books, and publication dates.