View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

Graph and download economic data for Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Interest Rates (EMVMACROINTEREST) from Jan 1985 to Jun 2025 about volatility, uncertainty, equity, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of August 2020, the S&P 500 index had lost 34 percent of its value due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the Great Crash, which began with Black Tuesday, remains the most significant loss in value in its history. That market crash lasted for 300 months and wiped 86 percent off the index value.

In 2024, ** percent of adults in the United States invested in the stock market. This figure has remained steady over the last few years, and is still below the levels before the Great Recession, when it peaked in 2007 at ** percent. What is the stock market? The stock market can be defined as a group of stock exchanges, where investors can buy shares in a publicly traded company. In more recent years, it is estimated an increasing number of Americans are using neobrokers, making stock trading more accessible to investors. Other investments A significant number of people think stocks and bonds are the safest investments, while others point to real estate, gold, bonds, or a savings account. Since witnessing the significant one-day losses in the stock market during the Financial Crisis, many investors were turning towards these alternatives in hopes for more stability, particularly for investments with longer maturities. This could explain the decrease in this statistic since 2007. Nevertheless, some speculators enjoy chasing the short-run fluctuations, and others see value in choosing particular stocks.

Interactive chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock market index for the last 100 years. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

United Kingdom's main stock market index, the GB100, fell to 8941 points on July 11, 2025, losing 0.38% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 0.63% and is up 8.34% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from United Kingdom. United Kingdom Stock Market Index (GB100) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

The Financial Asset Investing industry's revenue is largely dictated by the performance of domestic and international financial markets. Volatility in global financial markets due to the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has contributed to a decline in confidence. Industry revenue is expected to fall at an annualised 3.2% over the five years through 2023-24, to total $31.1 billion. This trend includes an anticipated uptick of 0.1% in the current year. Industry revenue has been highly volatile, with sharemarket performance remaining relatively weak due to the pandemic. As a result, profitability has trended downwards. Despite this decline, industry participation has jumped, as asset investing becomes more popular among consumers and businesses, including investments in riskier assets like domestic and international equities. To curb inflation, the RBNZ has repeatedly raised its official cash rate, resulting in a 14-year high in cash rates and a surge in interest rates in New Zealand. Rising interest rates have sparked interest in longer term debt securities due to their higher yield, which is more enticing for investors. This has somewhat offset the decline in industry revenue. Industry revenue is forecast to grow moving forwards. A strong economic recovery following the pandemic and easing global concerns are projected to drive revenue growth, as investors are more eager to take on higher risk. Forecast rate cuts are set to stimulate stock market performance. Instead of longer term debt securities like bonds, investors will start gravitating towards equities as yields gradually decline. Other factors set to drive growth include lower revenue volatility and a rise in industry assets contributing to growing investment returns. Technology will continue to play a key role in the Financial Asset Investing industry. Fintech advancements, like chatbots and robo-advisors, are set to enhance profitability in the coming years by automating tasks and reducing reliance on administrative labour. However, firms will likely face stronger competition for funds from superannuation funds and KiwiSaver schemes. Overall, industry revenue is forecast to grow at an annualised 3.3% over the five years through 2028-29, to reach $36.5 billion.

BlackRock Income Trust's strong track record, diversified investment portfolio, and experienced management team position it favorably for continued income generation and long-term growth. However, risks associated with interest rate fluctuations, inflation, and economic downturns may impact its performance. The trust's high expense ratio and potential for dividend cuts should also be considered before investing.

China's main stock market index, the SHANGHAI, rose to 3520 points on July 14, 2025, gaining 0.27% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 3.86% and is up 18.35% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from China. China Shanghai Composite Stock Market Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Hong Kong's main stock market index, the HK50, rose to 24140 points on July 11, 2025, gaining 0.46% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 0.43% and is up 31.96% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Hong Kong. Hong Kong Stock Market Index (HK50) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

As of November 14, 2021, all S&P 500 sector indices had recovered to levels above those of January 2020, prior to full economic effects of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic taking hold. However, different sectors recovered at different rates to sit at widely different levels above their pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that the effect of the coronavirus on financial markets in the United States is directly affected by how the virus has impacted various parts of the underlying economy. Which industry performed the best during the coronavirus pandemic? Companies operating in the information technology (IT) sector have been the clear winners from the pandemic, with the IT S&P 500 sector index sitting at almost ** percent above early 2020 levels as of November 2021. This is perhaps not surprising given this industry includes some of the companies who benefitted the most from the pandemic such as ************** and *******. The reason for these companies’ success is clear – as shops were shuttered and social gatherings heavily restricted due to the pandemic, online services such shopping and video streaming were in high demand. The success of the IT sector is also reflected in the performance of global share markets during the coronavirus pandemic, with tech-heavy NASDAQ being the best performing major market worldwide. Which industry performed the worst during the pandemic? Conversely, energy companies fared the worst during the pandemic, with the S&P 500 sector index value sitting below its early 2020 value as late as July 2021. Since then it has somewhat recovered, and was around ** percent above January 2020 levels as of October 2021. This reflects the fact that many oil companies were among the share prices suffering the largest declines over 2020. A primary driver for this was falling demand for fuel in line with the reduction in tourism and commuting caused by lockdowns all over the world. However, as increasing COVID-19 vaccination rates throughout 2021 led to lockdowns being lifted and global tourism reopening, demand has again risen - reflected by the recent increase in the S&P 500 energy index.

Euro Area's main stock market index, the EU50, fell to 5350 points on July 14, 2025, losing 0.62% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 0.19% and is up 7.36% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Euro Area. Euro Area Stock Market Index (EU50) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Investment trusts have navigated a turbulent environment over recent years, characterised by regulatory changes and uncertain economic conditions. While demand for investment trusts has stayed fairly strong, alternative investment vehicles like open-ended investment companies have put pressure with their competitive prices, encouraging investment trusts to band together through consolidation to drive down fees charged thanks to economies of scale. Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.9% over the five years through 2025-26 to £1.7 billion, including estimated growth of 6.5% in 2025-26, while the average industry profit margin is anticipated to be 27.4%. After the financial crisis in 2008, ultra-low interest rates supported equity growth as investors sought attractive returns from companies supported by cheap lending rates. This environment came to an end in 2022, as interest rates picked up rapidly amid spiralling inflation. As a result, bond values plummeted, and stock markets recorded lacklustre growth, hurting investment income. Although the rising base rate environment persisted into 2023-24, investors priced in rate cuts near the end of 2023, triggering a rally in stock markets. Capital also flowed into bonds as investors sought to lock in higher yields before they would potentially decline in 2024-25. In 2025-26, trusts will likely limit their exposure to US markets despite healthy growth seen from big tech firms in 2024-25, cautious of US fiscal policy, rising debt and the risk that trade tariffs will trigger a recession. Bond markets will also remain volatile, with markets unsure about the speed of rate cuts amid trade tensions. However, a declining base rate environment will drive prices up and support returns for investment trusts. Investment trust revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.6% over the five years through 2029-30 to £2.1 billion. Investors will continue to reduce their exposure to the dollar, with the European Stoxx index positioned for healthy growth in the short term, being seen as an effective safe haven in uncertain times. However, regulatory changes proposed by the Financial Conduct Authority have been contentious, putting investment trusts at a disadvantage to alternative investment vehicles like OEICs. Investment trusts will seek acquisitive growth, using mergers and acquisitions to minimise fixed costs through scale and ramp up competitiveness.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

AGNC: Will Mortgage REIT Thrive in a Rising Rate Environment?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

France's main stock market index, the FR40, fell to 7829 points on July 11, 2025, losing 0.92% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 0.83% and is up 1.36% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from France. France Stock Market Index (FR40) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The Fund Management Activities industry is undergoing a period of transformation, characterised by technological disruptions and shifting investor preferences. Firms that have embraced this innovation and demonstrated their ability to adapt have been well positioned to navigate these challenges. That being said, companies have still been plagued by numerous economic headwinds, resulting in particularly volatile revenue in recent years. Revenue is expected to fall at a compound annual rate of 0.8% over the five years through 2024 to €163.6 billion, including a forecast rise of 2.7% in 2024. Economic uncertainty has been rife in recent years, with investors remaining cautious amid muted economic growth, sticky inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes from central banks across Europe. Notably, 2022 was a tough year for capital markets, with the rising base rate environment triggering mass sell-offs in fixed-income markets and clobbering bond values. Stock markets didn’t fare much better, with the MSCI World Index ending the year down by 13.1%. Optimism was hard to come by going into 2023, but capital markets defied expectations, partially due to a solid performance from large cap tech stocks and investors pricing in rate cuts at the tail-end of the year, supporting capital inflows. Although not forecast to record double-digit growth, stock market are positioned to see a modest gain in 2024, with interest rates likely to be cut and inflation coming down. However, there’s the argument that stocks, most notably US stocks, are overvalued, leading to the possibility of a repricing, which would put downwards pressure on prices and weigh on revenue growth. Revenue is slated to swell at compound annual rate of 3.8% over the five years through 2029 to €197.4 billion. Investment activity is set to pick up in the short term as economic growth improves, boosting investor confidence and driving revenue and profit growth. Technological advancements will continue to gather pace in the coming years, with developments like robo-advisers becoming increasingly accurate and supporting investment returns.

The annual returns of the Nasdaq 100 Index from 1986 to 2024. fluctuated significantly throughout the period considered. The Nasdaq 100 index saw its lowest performance in 2008, with a return rate of ****** percent, while the largest returns were registered in 1999, at ****** percent. As of June 11, 2024, the rate of return of Nasdaq 100 Index stood at ** percent. The Nasdaq 100 is a stock market index comprised of the 100 largest and most actively traded non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. How has the Nasdaq 100 evolved over years? The Nasdaq 100, which was previously heavily influenced by tech companies during the dot-com boom, has undergone significant diversification. Today, it represents a broader range of high-growth, non-financial companies across sectors like consumer services and healthcare, reflecting the evolving landscape of the global economy. The annual development of the Nasdaq 100 recently has generally been positive, except for 2022, when the NASDAQ experienced a decline due to worries about escalating inflation, interest rates, and regulatory challenges. What are the leading companies on Nasdaq 100? In August 2023, ***** was the largest company on the Nasdaq 100, with a market capitalization of **** trillion euros. Also, ****************************************** were among the five leading companies included in the index. Market capitalization is one of the most common ways of measuring how big a company is in the financial markets. It is calculated by multiplying the total number of outstanding shares by the current market price.

PDLB is a triple whammy on those three themes.ECIP capital: PDLB received $225M of ECIP capital, and the regulators assigned them the lowest possible dividend (0.5%) on this capital for the first year of payments (announced in June). If we assume PDLB continues to pay 0.5% on this preferred and they have a cost of preferred equity of 10%, then we can calculate the value of this $225M liability as just $11M, with the rest a write-up to equity.This adjustment brings P/TBV from 82% to 46%.Thrift conversion dynamics: Ponce converted from a mutual holding company to a stock holding company in January 2022 (second step). PDLB is an unprofitable and under-levered bank. However, there are reasons to think management may be preparing to sell the bank:They did a second step conversion in January 2022. Only the optionality to sell the bank would motivate this step, as the bank didn’t need the capital, and the conversion increases management’s susceptibility to activist investors. This is highly praised by the best stock analysis websites.Management is old: 6/8 members are in their 70s or 80s (including the CEO and Chairman).Together, the Directors and Officers own >2M shares of stock, worth ~$20M. The CEO owns 580,000 shares, worth ~$6M. His total compensation is ~$1.3M (and he'll need to retire soon anyway). Additionally, the CEO and directors will receive a final tranche of ESOP shares in December 2024 that will boost their holdings another ~40%.Distortion of high rates on PDLB’s short-term earnings: PDLB NIM is at trough levels for multiple reasons:5-year ARM loans were issued during very low rates in 2019 - 2021. 5-year treasury yields were between 0.2% and 1.4% during this period, and grew to >4% in September 2022 (where they’ve been ever since). Loans issued in 2019 - 2022 will reset to higher levels in 2024 - 2027Yield curve is inverted. Ponce lends based on the long end of the curve (five-year rates at 4.1%) and funds on the short-end of the curve (brokered deposits come in at ~5.3%). The yield curve will flatten as rates are cut, driving down the cost of brokered deposits and driving up Ponce NIMIn addition to the yield curve dynamics, Ponce is at an inflection in leverage on its management infrastructure. It built out management capabilities for a much larger bank, and is currently seeing decreasing Q/Q non-interest cost, while assets and interest income are growing nicely.IR told me that cost pressures were peaking in 2023, and this has already become true in 1H 2024 results.Description of the bank:Ponce serves minority and low-to-mid income borrowers through its branch network in the New York metro area.Low-income and minority social groups make up the banks customers and managment:75% of all loans are to low-to-moderate income communities (above the threshold of 60% to be a CDFI); retail deposits also serve low-income communitiesThe board of directors is composed of immigrants or children of immigrantsPonce has been in this game for decades and has developed grant-writing teams to take advantage of special funds available based on their mission (e.g. $4.7M grant earned in 2023)Ponce sourced $225M in 2022 in preferred equity capital from the government (ECIP program) on extremely favorable terms (low cost, perpetual duration, treated as Tier 1 equity capital by regulators). They recently reported that for the first year (and I’d be in subsequent years), they’ll pay the lowest possible dividend of 0.5% (the range is up to 2% for the program). This number is inline with the one quoted by the best stock websites.Ponce also receives low-cost corporate deposits that allow other banks to get Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) credit with regulators. These deposits are insured and sticky, and often ~200bps or more below market interest rates.Outside of the ECIP equity and the small-but-growing CRA corporate deposits, the bank doesn’t have a good deposit franchise. The blended total cost of interest-bearing liabilities in 2023 is 4.0%.On the asset side, Ponce’s focus on mortgage lending to lower-income communities is a good niche (and composes 99% of lending). IR explained to me that the board of directors is composed of engaged real estate investors who know intimately the relevant neighborhoods and are involved in credit underwriting. Ponce lends 5/1 and 5/5 adjustable-rate mortgages against single-family (27% of loans), multifamily (30% of loans), and non-residential (18% of loans). Construction (23% of loans) properties are 36-month fixed-rate loans. LTVs on all these segments are ~55% and debt service coverage ratio >1.25x. In the current environment, Ponce is issuing loans at ~9% yield that are likely to experience very low levels of credit losses (my expectation would be 0 - 0.1% per year in annual credit cost). Given 5-year rates (~4%), lending at 9% is very favorable, and likely reflects decreasing competitive intensity in the wake of recent banking turmoil.I’m comfortable projecting very low credit costs because losses from the mortgage portfolio have been substantially zero going back to 2016 and very low going back to 2012 (the first year of available data). Charge-offs seemed to peak in 2013 at 0.7% of outstanding loans (charge-off happen years after delinquencies, so the timing seems reasonable following ‘08/’09). Given the peak of 0.7% and the more common experience of 0.0% charge-offs in Ponce’s mortgages, I’m therefore comfortable mostly ignoring credit cost.The most concerning area with respect to credit costs is the construction book. Although they scaled the construction business in 2023, it's not a new business for PDLB (they've been doing construction loans on the order of ~100M per year since 2017, and on a smaller scale before that). PDLB has not recorded any charge offs on the construction business going back at least 7 years. PDLB had no new delinquencies on this book in 2023 (I.e. from loans made in 2020). They did have some DQNs in 2022, but these have been mostly worked out without charge offs.Regarding the timing of the ramp up in recent quarters, it may be just right: if investors/banks are concerned about charge offs today, that's related to vintages from 2020/2021 (which were also loans issued at much lower rates and might not roll over smoothly). If others are pulling back, that's the time to deploy more capital into the business.The bank is currently very under-leveraged: Tier-1 equity / RWA is 21% (vs. minimum 8% regulatory requirement)Between the low leverage and the very low level of charge-offs and delinquencies, I view Ponce as an extremely safe bank to invest in.Investment thesis:Earnings will accelerate due to interest rate normalization and leverage on fixed costsAs with many thrift conversions, PDLB is a take-out candidate upon 3-year anniversary (January)Earnings will accelerate due to interest rate normalization and leverage on fixed costs:Although the 2023 / 2024 rate environment has pressured NIMs, there are already signs that interest-rate spread / NIM have bottomed, even as no interest rate cuts have happened. Interest rate spreads have leveled out in the past three quarters at ~1.7%. Liabilities have mostly repriced, and from here, tailwinds will be 1) repricing of the 5-year ARMs and 2) interest rate cuts starting in September. NIM will be going up, and will likely recover to historical levels within a couple of years.On the expense side, there was significant concern into the 2023 results about non-interest expense. Compensation and benefits grew by 13% CAGR from 2019 - 2023. Growth was 10% in 2023, showing deceleration but still to a high level. However, based on comments by IR that the bank has built expense infrastructure for a much larger bank, and based on results from 1H 2024, it looks like expenses are more controlled now. Non interest cost was in the 17.0M - 17.9M range for the last four quarters (prior to recently announced Q2). Q2, on the other hand, showed non-interest expense at 16.1M. Meanwhile, interest earning assets continued to grow at ~12% Y/Y. The combination of flat / decreasing costs and double-digit asset growth is very favorable for expense leverage.Additionally, managers have incentives to create shareholder value, especially as they reach retirement age. If Ponce doesn’t slow expense growth, shareholder activists may discover Ponce and pressure management to rationalize or sell the bank.The combination of improving NIM, growth in assets, and flattish expenses should produce much higher EPS in coming quarters, and I think $2 - $2.50 in EPS by 2026 is likely (if the bank isn’t sold).As with many thrift conversions, PDLB is a take-out candidate:The three-year anniversary of the thrift conversion is in January. The board is of retirement age and has healthy incentives to sell the bank. A buyout is likely a home-run from today’s stock price of $10.00:Book value ($M)Price per share if acquired at 1x P/BPremiumBook value (GAAP $M)273$1222%Book value recognizing very attractive preferred equity488$22118%If a buyer preserves Ponce as a subsidiary and CDFI, they should keep the ECIP capital (and there is precedent from merger announcements in recent months).Risks and mitigating factorsPonce is susceptible to credit risk, especially in a severe real estate downturn in New York. However, from what we can see of the wake of 2008/2009 financial crash, realized losses on the portfolio were quite low. Additionally, current credit metrics are pristine. 90-day delinquencies are just 0.5% of loans. Construction loans were the worst performers at 1.6%, followed by (counter-intuitively) owner-occupied at 1.4%. The NYC real estate dynamics affecting NYCB and others appear to be non-issues for PDLB. However it’s worth keeping a close eye on credit metrics.If NYC raises taxes to address budget deficits, it could hurt property prices. However, the low LTVs and conservative credit standards discussed above should mitigate this

Sweden's main stock market index, the Stockholm, fell to 2545 points on July 11, 2025, losing 1.37% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 2.56%, though it remains 3.25% lower than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Sweden. Sweden Stock Market Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.