Higher education undergraduate student loan outlay by Household Residual Income

Loan outlay, mean loan outlay per student, number of students and proportion of students by Household Residual Income band for 2019/20

Student Loan Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the global student loan market size reached USD 135.2 billion in 2024, reflecting the persistent demand for higher education financing worldwide. The market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 7.1% from 2025 to 2033, reaching an estimated USD 251.7 billion by 2033. This robust growth is driven by the increasing cost of tertiary education, rising enrollment rates, and evolving financial products tailored to diverse borrower needs. As per our latest analysis, the market is witnessing dynamic shifts in lender participation and repayment models, reflecting the changing landscape of global education finance.

One of the primary growth factors propelling the student loan market is the escalating cost of higher education across both developed and emerging economies. Tuition fees, living expenses, and ancillary costs have risen steadily, outpacing inflation and family income levels in many countries. This widening affordability gap has compelled students and their families to increasingly rely on external funding sources, particularly student loans. Simultaneously, the proliferation of private and alternative lenders has diversified borrowing options, making loans more accessible to a broader demographic. The emergence of income-driven repayment and refinancing solutions has further enhanced the market’s attractiveness, offering borrowers flexibility and financial relief over traditional rigid repayment structures.

Another significant factor impacting market growth is the ongoing digital transformation within the financial sector. Fintech innovations are streamlining loan origination, disbursement, and management, reducing operational costs for lenders and expediting the approval process for borrowers. Online lending platforms, powered by advanced analytics and AI, are enabling more personalized risk assessments and competitive interest rates, attracting tech-savvy students and parents. These platforms are also contributing to greater financial inclusion, particularly in regions where traditional banking infrastructure is limited. The integration of digital tools is not only enhancing the borrower experience but also improving portfolio performance for lenders through better risk management and customer engagement.

Demographic trends and government policies are also shaping the student loan market’s trajectory. The global surge in tertiary enrollment, especially in Asia Pacific and Africa, is expanding the borrower base. Governments in several countries are implementing supportive policies, such as interest subsidies, loan forgiveness programs, and flexible repayment schemes, to mitigate the financial burden on graduates and stimulate higher education participation. However, regulatory scrutiny around lending practices and concerns over rising student debt levels are prompting both public and private lenders to adopt more responsible lending and transparency measures. These dynamics are fostering a more balanced and sustainable growth environment for the student loan market.

Regionally, North America continues to command the largest share of the student loan market, driven by the United States’ mature lending ecosystem and high tertiary education costs. However, Asia Pacific is emerging as the fastest-growing region, fueled by rapid urbanization, expanding middle-class populations, and increasing investments in higher education infrastructure. Europe, meanwhile, exhibits steady growth, supported by government-backed loan schemes and cross-border education mobility. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are witnessing gradual expansion, with rising demand for higher education and evolving financial services infrastructure. Each region presents unique challenges and opportunities, influencing lender strategies and market dynamics.

Type Analysis

The student loan market is segmented by type into federal loans, private loans, and refinancing loans, each with distinct characteristics and growth trajectories. Federal loans, primarily offered by government agencies, remain the dominant segment in markets such as the United States and several European countries. These loans typically feature lower interest rates, flexible repayment options, and borrower protections, making them the preferred choice for undergraduate and graduate students. The stability and accessibility of federal loans are underpinned by government backing, which reduces default ri

The data and programs replicate tables and figures from "Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment," by Tim de Silva. Please see the README file for additional details.

The Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) is normally a triennial cross-sectional survey of U.S. families. The survey data include information on families' balance sheets, pensions, income, and demographic characteristics.

Net-Interest-Income Time Series for Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. provides early education and childcare, back-up care, educational advisory, and other workplace solutions services for employers and families in the United States, Puerto Rico, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Australia, and India. The company operates in three segments: Full Service Center-Based Child Care, Back-Up Care, and Educational Advisory services. The Full Service Center-Based Child Care segment offers traditional center-based early education and child care, preschool, and elementary education services. The Back-Up Care segment provides center-based back-up child care, in-home child and senior care, school-age programs, camps, tutoring, pet care, and self-sourced reimbursed care services, as well as sittercity, an online marketplace for families and caregivers through early education and child care centers, school-age programs and in-home care providers, the back-up care network, and other providers. The Educational Advisory services segment offers tuition assistance and student loan repayment program management, workforce education, and related educational consulting services, as well as college admissions and college financial advisory services. The company was formerly known as Bright Horizons Solutions Corp. and changed its name to Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. in July 2012. Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Newton, Massachusetts.

The College Bound Scholarship was created to provide state financial aid to low-income students who may not consider college a possibility due to the cost. The scholarship covers tuition (at comparable public college rates), some fees, and a small book allowance. This dataset contains the counts of 7th or 8th grade students whose family meets the income requirements (CBS_Eligible), those who submit and complete an application by June 30 of the student’s 8th grade year(CBS_Applications), and the Sign-Up Rate (CBS_Rate) calculated as a percentage.

This table has been archived and replaced by table 36100664. Income quintiles are assigned based on the equalized household disposable income. This takes into account differences in household size and composition. The Oxford-modified equivalence scale is used; it assigns a value of 1 to the first adult, 0.5 to each additional person aged 14 and over, and 0.3 for all children under 14. The coefficients of variation from Statistics Canada's Survey of Financial Security for 2012 and 2016, which serve as indicators of the accuracy of these estimates for net worth and its components, are available in the appendix to Distributions of Household Economic Accounts, estimates of asset, liability and net worth distributions, 2010 to 2019, technical methodology and quality report for the March 2020 release. Age groups refer to the age group of the major income earner. This refers to the main source of income for the household, that is, wages and salaries, self-employment income, net property income, current transfers received related to pension benefits, or other current transfers received from non-pension related sources.
Self-employment income refers to mixed income related to non-farm and farm businesses. Household rental income is not included. Revenues from Current transfers received - pension benefits relate to current transfers received from corporations for employer's pension plans and current transfers received from government for the Canada and Québec pension plans (CPP/QPP) and the Old Age Security program including the Guaranteed Income Supplement (OAS/GIS). Revenues from Current transfers received - others, relate to all other current transfers received not included in Current transfers received - pensions benefits, that is, it includes current transfers from the government sector except for the Canada and Québec pension plans (CPP/QPP) and from the Old Age Security Program (OAS) and the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS). It also includes current transfers from Non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) and from the non-residents sector. Owner/Renter refers to the housing tenure of a household. Households that have subsidized rents (partially or fully) are included under Renter. Distributions by generation are defined as follows and are based on the birth year of the major income earner: pre-1946 for those born before 1946, baby boom for those born between 1946 and 1964, generation X for those born between 1965 and 1980 and millennials for those born after 1980. Note that generation Z has been combined with the millennial generation as their sample size is relatively small. Life insurance and pensions include the value of all life insurance and employer pension plans, termination basis. Excludes public plans administered or sponsored by governments: Old Age Security (OAS) including the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) and the Spouse's Allowance (SPA), as well as the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans (CPP/QPP). Other financial assets include total currency and deposits, Canadian short-term paper, Canadian bonds and debentures, foreign investments in paper and bonds, mortgages, equity and investment funds, and other receivables. Other non-financial assets include consumer durables, machinery and equipment, and intellectual property products. Excludes accumulation of value of collectibles including coins, stamps and art work. Other liabilities include major credit cards and retail store cards, gasoline station cards, etc., vehicle loans, lines of credit, student loans, other loans from financial institutions and other money owed. Owner's equity refers to the value of the interests of an owner or partial owner in an asset, in this case real estate, divided by household real estate, which includes the value of structures (residential and non-residential) and land owned by households. Distributions of Household Economic Accounts (DHEA) estimates are benchmarked to year-end estimates for liabilities and assets from the National Balance Sheet Accounts (NBSA, Table 36-10-0580-01), and for annual household disposable income from the Provincial-Territorial Economic Accounts (Table 36-10-0224-01). DHEA ratios for debt to disposable income, real estate as a share of disposable income, and net worth as a share of disposable income differ from those included in “Financial indicators of households and non-profit institutions serving households, national balance sheet accounts” (Table 38-10-0235-01) as the latter source adjusts disposable income for the change in pension entitlements. The measure of disposable income used for the DHEA ratios is more consistent with that shown in “Household sector credit market summary table, seasonally adjusted estimates” (Table 38-10-0238), which does not adjust disposable income for the change in pension entitlements.

Net-Interest-Income Time Series for Fiserv, Inc.. Fiserv, Inc. provides payments and financial services technology solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Latin America, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through the Merchant Solutions and Financial Solutions segments. The company provides merchant acquiring and digital commerce services, mobile payment services, security and fraud protection solutions, stored-value solutions, software-as-a-service, and pay-by-bank solutions, as well as Clover, a point-of-sale and business management platform through various channels, including direct sales teams, strategic partnerships with agent sales forces, independent software vendors, independent sales organizations, financial institutions, and other strategic partners. It also offers debit card processing services, debit network services, security and fraud protection products, bill payment; person-to-person payments, account-to-account transfers, credit card processing services, prepaid card processing services, card production services, print services, government payment processing, student loan processing, and customer loan and deposit account processing; digital banking; financial and risk management; and professional services and consulting, check processing, automated clearing house, and real-time payments. It serves large enterprise, small business, banks, credit union, large financial institution, fintech, public sectors, and software providers. Fiserv, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Retained-Earnings Time Series for Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. provides early education and childcare, back-up care, educational advisory, and other workplace solutions services for employers and families in the United States, Puerto Rico, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Australia, and India. The company operates in three segments: Full Service Center-Based Child Care, Back-Up Care, and Educational Advisory services. The Full Service Center-Based Child Care segment offers traditional center-based early education and child care, preschool, and elementary education services. The Back-Up Care segment provides center-based back-up child care, in-home child and senior care, school-age programs, camps, tutoring, pet care, and self-sourced reimbursed care services, as well as sittercity, an online marketplace for families and caregivers through early education and child care centers, school-age programs and in-home care providers, the back-up care network, and other providers. The Educational Advisory services segment offers tuition assistance and student loan repayment program management, workforce education, and related educational consulting services, as well as college admissions and college financial advisory services. The company was formerly known as Bright Horizons Solutions Corp. and changed its name to Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. in July 2012. Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Newton, Massachusetts.

Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway were among the European countries with most indebted households in 2023 and 2024. The debt of Dutch households amounted to *** percent their disposable income in the 2nd quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, Norwegian households' debt represented *** percent of their income in the 3rd quarter of 2023. However, households in most countries were less indebted, with that ratio amounting to ** percent in the Euro area. Less indebtedness in Western and Northern Europe There were several European countries where household's debts outweighed their disposable income. Most of those countries were North or West European. However, the indebtedness ratio in Denmark has been decreasing during the past decade. As the debt of Danish households represented nearly *** percent in the last quarter of 2014, which has fallen very significantly by 2024. Other countries with indebted households have been following similar trends. The households' debt-to-income ratio in the Netherlands has also fallen from over *** percent in 2013 to *** percent in 2024. Debt per adult in Europe In Europe, the value of debt per adult varies considerably from an average of around 10,000 U.S. dollars in Europe to a much higher level in certain countries such as Switzerland. Debts can be formed in a number of ways. The most common forms of debt include credit cards, medical debt, student loans, overdrafts, mortgages, automobile financing and personal loans.

The total amount owed by U.S. households across various types of credit, including mortgages, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, student loans, credit cards, and other consumer debt. This measure reflects the financial obligations of consumers and their capacity to borrow and repay. Rising household debt can indicate increased consumer confidence and spending but may also signal growing financial strain, especially if accompanied by higher delinquency rates or slower income growth.

The average amount of non-mortgage debt held by consumers in the United States has been falling steadily during the past years, amounting to ****** U.S. dollars in 2023. While respondents had ****** U.S. dollars of debt in 2018, that volume decreased to ****** U.S. dollars in 2019, which constituted the largest year-over-year decrease.What age groups are more indebted in the U.S.?The age group with the highest level of consumer debt in the U.S. was belonging to the Generation X with approximately ******* U.S. dollars of debt in 2022. The next generations with high consumer debt levels were baby boomers and millennials, whose debt levels were similar. In comparison, credit card debt is more equally distributed across all ages. There is an exception among people under 35 years old, who are significantly less burdened with credit card debt. However, most consumers expect to get rid of their debt in the short term. College expenses as a source of debtEducational expenses were not among the leading sources of debt among consumers in the U.S. in 2022. Instead, they made up about ** percent of the total. However, around ** percent of undergraduates from lower-income families had student loans, while over a fifth of undergraduates from higher-income families had student loans. Independently of how they cover these expenses, the confidence of students and parents about being able to pay these college costs was high in most cases.