South Africa’s inflation has been quite stable for the past years, levelling off between 3.2 and 6.9 percent, and is in fact expected to stabilize at around 4.5 percent in the future. South Africa is a mixed economy, generating most of its GDP through the services sector, especially tourism. However, the country struggles with unemployment and poverty.

Inflation who?

The inflation rate of a country is an important key factor to determine the country’s economic strength. It is calculated using the price increase of a defined product basket, containing goods and services on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. They include, for example, expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, utilities, but also recreational activities, and raw materials (e.g. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes. Some of these goods are more volatile than others – food prices, for example, are considered less reliable. The European Central Bank aims to keep inflation at around two percent in the long run.

What happened in 2016?

In 2016, South Africa’s inflation rate peaked at over 6.3 percent, and gross domestic product, and thus economic growth , took a hit, a sure indicator that something was affecting the country’s economic scaffolding: Low growth due to weak demand and an uncertain political future caused a crisis; then-President Jacob Zuma’s alleged mismanagement and unstable reign steeped in controversy and criminal charges even caused the economy’s outlook to be downgraded by ratings agencies. Zuma was relieved of his office in 2018 – ever since, inflation, GDP, and economic growth seem to have stabilized.

This study estimates the monetary policy reaction function (MPRF) in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework using Bayesian analysis for the emerging economies. DSGE models are suitable for the policy analysis because of their simplicity and prominent role of forward-looking variables. This is a pioneer study investigating the combined effects of credit spreads, fiscal imbalances, and monetary autonomy on interest rates for BRICS member countries. Using real data for the period 1970–2021, the posterior estimates confirm that both credit spread and fiscal imbalance significantly contribute to fluctuations in output, inflation, and interest rates in all the sample economies. The estimates show that fluctuations in the inflation rate are due to supply shocks. The empirical estimates also reveal that fiscal imbalances shock significantly affect output in Brazil, India, and South Africa, whereas, based on real data inflation and interest rate are significantly affected by fiscal imbalance shocks in China and South Africa. Yet, the findings suggest that the effects of various shocks on output and interest rates vary across countries.

The benchmark interest rate in South Africa was last recorded at 7.25 percent. This dataset provides - South Africa Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Priors and posteriors distributions–Exogenous processes.

Priors and posteriors distributions–Structural parameters.

Unemployment Rate in South Africa increased to 32.90 percent in the first quarter of 2025 from 31.90 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. This dataset provides - South Africa Unemployment Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Impulse responses to different shocks for the emerging countries.

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Foreign Exchange Market Size 2025-2029

The foreign exchange market size is forecast to increase by USD 582 billion, at a CAGR of 10.6% between 2024 and 2029.

The Foreign Exchange Market is segmented by type (reporting dealers, financial institutions, non-financial customers), trade finance instruments (currency swaps, outright forward and FX swaps, FX options), trading platforms (electronic trading, over-the-counter (OTC), mobile trading), and geography (North America: US, Canada; Europe: Germany, Switzerland, UK; Middle East and Africa: UAE; APAC: China, India, Japan; South America: Brazil; Rest of World). This segmentation reflects the market's global dynamics, driven by institutional trading, increasing digital adoption through electronic trading and mobile trading, and regional economic activities, with APAC markets like India and China showing significant growth alongside traditional hubs like the US and UK.
The market is experiencing significant shifts driven by the escalating trends of urbanization and digitalization. These forces are creating 24x7 trading opportunities, enabling greater accessibility and convenience for market participants. However, the market's dynamics are not without challenges. The uncertainty of future exchange rates poses a formidable obstacle for businesses and investors alike, necessitating robust risk management strategies. As urbanization continues to expand and digital technologies reshape the trading landscape, market players must adapt to remain competitive. One significant trend is the increasing use of money transfer agencies, venture capital investments, and mutual funds in foreign exchange transactions. Companies seeking to capitalize on these opportunities must navigate the challenges effectively, ensuring they stay abreast of exchange rate fluctuations and implement agile strategies to mitigate risk.
The ability to adapt and respond to these market shifts will be crucial for success in the evolving market.

What will be the Size of the Foreign Exchange Market during the forecast period?

Explore in-depth regional segment analysis with market size data - historical 2019-2023 and forecasts 2025-2029 - in the full report.
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In the dynamic and intricate realm of the market, entities such as algorithmic trading, order book, order management systems, and liquidity risk intertwine, shaping the ever-evolving market landscape. The market's continuous unfolding is characterized by the integration of various components, including sentiment analysis, Fibonacci retracement, mobile trading, and good-for-the-day orders. Market activities are influenced by factors like political stability, monetary policy, and market liquidity, which in turn impact economic growth and trade settlement. Technical analysis, with its focus on chart patterns and moving averages, plays a crucial role in informing trading decisions. The market's complexity is further amplified by the presence of entities like credit risk, counterparty risk, and operational risk.

Central bank intervention, order execution, clearing and settlement, and trade confirmation are essential components of the market's infrastructure, ensuring a seamless exchange of currencies. Geopolitical risk, currency correlation, and inflation rates contribute to currency volatility, necessitating hedging strategies and risk management. Market risk, interest rate differentials, and commodity currencies influence trading strategies, while cross-border payments and brokerage services facilitate international trade. The ongoing evolution of the market is marked by the emergence of advanced trading platforms, automated trading, and real-time data feeds, enabling traders to make informed decisions in an increasingly interconnected and complex global economy.

How is this Foreign Exchange Industry segmented?

The foreign exchange industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Type

  Reporting dealers
  Financial institutions
  Non-financial customers


Trade Finance Instruments

  Currency swaps
  Outright forward and FX swaps
  FX options


Trading Platforms

  Electronic Trading
  Over-the-Counter (OTC)
  Mobile Trading


Geography

  North America

    US
    Canada


  Europe

    Germany
    Switzerland
    UK


  Middle East and Africa

    UAE


  APAC

    China
    India
    Japan


  South America

    Brazil


  Rest of World (ROW)

By Type Insights

The reporting dealers segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

The market is a dynamic and complex ecosystem where various entities interplay to manage currency risks and facilitate international trade. Reporting dealers, as key participants,

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Credit Intermediation Market Size 2024-2028

The credit intermediation market size is forecast to increase by USD 649.87 billion at a CAGR of 2.36% between 2023 and 2028. The market is experiencing significant developments and challenges, driven by various factors. One key trend is the increasing preference for discounted monthly installment plans, which allow consumers to access credit more affordable. However, this trend is not without risks, particularly during economic recessions when global economies face instability and credit availability becomes scarce. Banks, as primary credit intermediaries, are facing growing vulnerabilities and deficiencies, necessitating the development of an active secondary credit market to ensure smooth intermediation. This market growth is essential for maintaining financial stability and facilitating economic growth. Effective financialization and a strong secondary credit market can help mitigate risks and ensure credit availability to consumers and businesses, even during challenging economic conditions.

What will be the Size of the Market During the Forecast Period?

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Credit intermediation is a vital process in the financial market that facilitates the connection between borrowers and lenders. This process involves credit intermediaries, such as commercial banks and credit unions, acting as middlemen in the lending process. These institutions offer various credit products to individuals and entities, enabling them to access funds for personal or business purposes. The market plays a crucial role in the economy by making credit available to consumers and businesses. Credit agreements are legally binding contracts between the borrower and the lender, outlining the terms and conditions of the loan, including monthly installments, discounts, and refunds.

Moreover, the infrastructure required to support credit intermediation includes a strong workforce, advanced technology, and adherence to stringent money security regulations. Operating costs for credit intermediaries can be substantial due to the need for maintaining infrastructure, safeguarding investors, and managing market risk. One of the primary responsibilities of credit intermediaries is to assess the financial status of potential borrowers and ensure the mishandling of credit agreements is minimized. This process involves evaluating the borrower's ability to repay the loan and assessing the risk associated with the loan. Fraud prevention is also a significant concern, with credit intermediaries implementing measures to protect against fraudulent activities by both borrowers and enterprises.

Furthermore, the financial services industry is undergoing significant financial services innovation driven by the rise of digital banking and the growing adoption of financial technology (fintech). Digital financial services are transforming the landscape, with mobile banking, mobile payments, and digital lending playing a key role in promoting financial inclusion. As financial inclusion programs expand, innovative solutions like microfinance, peer-to-peer lending, and data-driven lending are empowering underserved communities. Financial inclusion strategies are further enhanced by financial literacy initiatives and financial education efforts, while sustainable finance and responsible lending practices ensure long-term stability. With an increasing focus on financial crime prevention, cybersecurity in finance, and compliance and risk, financial services regulation continues to adapt to new challenges. Financial technology trends and financial services transformation will drive future growth, ensuring greater financial well-being and financial security for consumers worldwide.

Market Segmentation

The market research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2024-2028, as well as historical data from 2018-2022 for the following segments.

Application

  Individual
  Enterprise


Type

  Tied credit intermediation
  Ancillary credit intermediation
  Non-tied credit intermediation


Geography

  North America

    US


  APAC

    China
    India
    Japan


  Europe

    Germany


  Middle East and Africa



  South America

By Application Insights

The individual segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period. The individual sector holds a significant market share in the market and is anticipated to lead the market growth during the forecast period. This segment's expansion can be attributed to the rising preference for personalized credit agreements and the growing role of intermediaries as credit advisors. The demand for credit counseling services has grown due to economic challenges, including increasing interest rates and inflation, which make it difficult for individuals to manage their d

The yield on South Africa 10Y Bond Yield rose to 9.88% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.10 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.21 points, though it remains 0.40 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. South Africa 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.