This statistic shows the fertility rate in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2013 to 2023. The fertility rate is the average number of children born to one woman while being of child-bearing age. Sub-Saharan Africa includes almost all countries south of the Sahara desert. In 2023, the fertility rate in Sub-Saharan Africa amounted to 4.33 children per woman.

Graph and download economic data for Fertility Rate, Total: All Income Levels for Sub-Saharan Africa (SPDYNTFRTINSSF) from 1960 to 2023 about Sub-Saharan Africa, fertility, income, and rate.

In 2024, the fertility rate in Africa was *** children per woman. The average number of newborn infants per woman on the continent decreased compared to 2000, when women had approximately **** children throughout their reproductive years. By 2030, fertility in Africa is projected to decline to around *** births per woman, yet it will remain high. The highest fertility rate worldwide Despite its gradually declining rate, fertility in Africa is the highest in the world. In 2021, the average fertility rate on the continent stood at **** children per woman, compared to a global average of **** births per woman. In contrast, Europe and North America were the continents with the lowest proportion of newborns, each registering a fertility rate below two children per woman. Additionally, Africa records the highest fertility rate among the young female population aged 15 to 19 years. In 2021, West and Central Africa had an adolescent fertility rate of *** children per 1,000 girls, the highest value worldwide. Lower fertility in Northern Africa Fertility levels vary significantly across Africa. In 2021, Niger, Somalia, Chad, and the Democratic Republic of Congo were the countries with the highest fertility rates on the continent. In those countries, women had an average of over *** children in their reproductive years. The number of adolescent girls giving birth also differed within Africa. For instance, the adolescent fertility rate in North Africa stood at around **** children per 1,000 young women in 2023. On the other hand, Sub-Saharan Africa registered a higher rate of ****** children per 1,000 girls in 2021. In general, higher poverty levels, inadequate social and health conditions, and increased infant mortality are some main drivers of higher fertility rates.

A flexible model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates: Sub-saharan Africa case study

The fertility rates are consistent with the United Nation World Population Prospects (UN WPP) 2022 fertility rates.

The Bayesian model developed to reconstruct the fertility rates using Demographic and Health Surveys and the UN WPP is published in a working paper.

Abstract

The future world population growth and size will be largely determined by the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. Correct estimates of education-specific fertility rates are crucial for projecting the future population. Yet, consistent cross-country comparable estimates of education-specific fertility for sub-Saharan African countries are still lacking. We propose a flexible Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates by using the patchy Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data and the United Nations’ (UN) reliable estimates of total fertility rates (TFR). Our model produces estimates that match the UN TFR to different extents (in other words, estimates of varying levels of consistency with the UN). We present three model specifications: consistent but not identical with the UN, fully-consistent (nearly identical) with the UN, and consistent with the DHS. Further, we provide a full time series of education-specific TFR estimates covering five-year periods between 1980 and 2014 for 36 sub-Saharan African countries. The results show that the DHS-consistent estimates are usually higher than the UN-fully-consistent ones. The differences between the three model estimates vary substantially in size across countries, yielding 1980-2014 fertility trends that differ from each other mostly in level only but in some cases also in direction.

Funding

The data set are part of the BayesEdu Project at Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) funded from the “Innovation Fund Research, Science and Society” by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW).

We provide education-specific total fertility rates (ESTFR) from three model specifications: (1) estimated TFR consistent but not identical with the TFR estimated by the UN (“Main model (UN-consistent)”; (2) estimated TFR fully consistent (nearly identical) with the TFR estimated by the UN ( “UN-fully -consistent”, and (3) estimated TFR consistent only with the TFR estimated by the DHS ( “DHS-consistent”).

For education- and age-specific fertility rates that are UN-fully consistent, please see https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8182960

Variables

Country: Country names

Education: Four education levels, No Education, Primary Education, Secondary Education and Higher Education.

Year: Five-year periods between 1980 and 2015.

ESTFR: Median education-specific total fertility rate estimate

sd: Standard deviation

Upp50: 50% Upper Credible Interval

Lwr50: 50% Lower Credible Interval

Upp80: 80% Upper Credible Interval

Lwr80: 80% Lower Credible Interval

Model: Three model specifications as explained above and in the working paper. DHS-consistent, Main model (UN-consistent) and UN-fully consistent.

List of countries:

Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cote D'Ivoire, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

In 2025, there are six countries, all in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the average woman of childbearing age can expect to have between 5-6 children throughout their lifetime. In fact, of the 20 countries in the world with the highest fertility rates, Afghanistan and Yemen are the only countries not found in Sub-Saharan Africa. High fertility rates in Africa With a fertility rate of almost six children per woman, Chad is the country with the highest fertility rate in the world. Population growth in Chad is among the highest in the world. Lack of healthcare access, as well as food instability, political instability, and climate change, are all exacerbating conditions that keep Chad's infant mortality rates high, which is generally the driver behind high fertility rates. This situation is common across much of the continent, and, although there has been considerable progress in recent decades, development in Sub-Saharan Africa is not moving as quickly as it did in other regions. Demographic transition While these countries have the highest fertility rates in the world, their rates are all on a generally downward trajectory due to a phenomenon known as the demographic transition. The third stage (of five) of this transition sees birth rates drop in response to decreased infant and child mortality, as families no longer feel the need to compensate for lost children. Eventually, fertility rates fall below replacement level (approximately 2.1 children per woman), which eventually leads to natural population decline once life expectancy plateaus. In some of the most developed countries today, low fertility rates are creating severe econoic and societal challenges as workforces are shrinking while aging populations are placin a greater burden on both public and personal resources.

The total fertility rate represents the average number of children that a woman will have over the course of their reproductive years. In South Africa in the early-1920s, the average woman would have 6.5 children over the course of their reproductive years, a rate that would remain fairly constant until 1950. From this point until 2005, South Africa’s fertility rate would drop consistently, and would reach 2.9 children per woman by the beginning of the 21st century. There was a slight increase in fertility in 2005, largely attributed to a diversion of healthcare funding away from contraceptives to funding for treatments for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the country, however, the fertility rate would again decrease in the years following this. In 2020, the total fertility rate for South Africa is estimated to be just 2.41 children per woman, a rate much lower than most other Sub-Saharan countries.

In 2021, Niger was the African country with the highest fertility rate. There, each woman had an average of 6.82 children in her reproductive years. Somalia and Chad followed, with a fertility rate of around 6.31 and 6.26 children per woman, respectively. Fertility levels in Africa remain high despite a steady decline The fertility rate in Africa has gradually decreased since 2000 and is projected to decline further in the coming years. Factors including improved socio-economic conditions and educational opportunities, lower infant mortality, and decreasing poverty levels have driven the declining birth rate on the continent. Nevertheless, Africa remains the continent with the highest fertility rate worldwide. Between 2015 and 2021, women in Africa had an average of 4.47 children in their reproductive years. Africa was the only continent registering a fertility rate higher than the global average, which was set at 2.32 children per woman. Worldwide, the continent also had the highest adolescent fertility rate as of 2021, with West and Central Africa leading with 107 births per 1,000 girls aged 15 to 19 years. Africa’s population keeps growing According to projections, over 46 million births will be registered in Africa in 2023. Contrary to the declining fertility rate, the absolute number of births on the continent will continue to grow in the coming years to reach around 50.1 million by 2026. In general, Africa’s population – amounting to over 1.39 billion inhabitants as of 2021 – is forecast to increase considerably and achieve almost 2.5 billion in 2050. Countries such as Niger, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea are key drivers of population growth in Africa, registering the highest average population growth rate on the continent between 2020 and 2025. For instance, in that period, Niger’s population was forecast to expand by 3.7 percent each year.

Adjusted Odd Ratio (AOR) of experiencing high-risk fertility behaviours among married women in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The Sudan Demographic and Health Survey (SDHS) was conducted in two phases between November 15, 1989 and May 21, 1990 by the Department of Statistics of the Ministry of Economic and National Planning. The survey collected information on fertility levels, marriage patterns, reproductive intentions, knowledge and use of contraception, maternal and child health, maternal mortality, and female circumcision. The survey findings provide the National Population Committee and the Ministry of Health with valuable information for use in evaluating population policy and planning public health programmes. A total of 5860 ever-married women age 15-49 were interviewed in six regions in northern Sudan; three regions in southern Sudan could not be included in the survey because of civil unrest in that part of the country. The SDHS provides data on fertility and mortality comparable to the 1978-79 Sudan Fertility Survey (SFS) and complements the information collected in the 1983 census. The primary objective of the SDHS was to provide data on fertility, nuptiality, family planning, fertility preferences, childhood mortality, indicators of maternal health care, and utilization of child health services. Additional information was coUected on educational level, literacy, source of household water, and other housing conditions. The SDHS is intended to serve as a source of demographic data for comparison with the 1983 census and the Sudan Fertility Survey (SFS) 1978-79, and to provide population and health data for policymakers and researchers. The objectives of the survey are to: assess the overall demographic situation in Sudan, assist in the evaluation of population and health programmes, assist the Department of Statistics in strengthening and improving its technical skills for conducting demographic and health surveys, enable the National Population Committee (NPC) to develop a population policy for the country, and measure changes in fertility and contraceptive prevalence, and study the factors which affect these changes, and examine the basic indicators of maternal and child health in Sudan. MAIN RESULTS Fertility levels and trends Fertility has declined sharply in Sudan, from an average of six children per women in the Sudan Fertility Survey (TFR 6.0) to five children in the Sudan DHS survey flTR 5.0). Women living in urban areas have lower fertility (TFR 4.1) than those in rural areas (5.6), and fertility is lower in the Khartoum and Northern regions than in other regions. The difference in fertility by education is particularly striking; at current rates, women who have attained secondary school education will have an average of 3.3 children compared with 5.9 children for women with no education, a difference of almost three children. Although fertility in Sudan is low compared with most sub-Saharan countries, the desire for children is strong. One in three currently married women wants to have another child within two years and the same proportion want another child in two or more years; only one in four married women wants to stop childbearing. The proportion of women who want no more children increases with family size and age. The average ideal family size, 5.9 children, exceeds the total fertility rate (5.0) by approximately one child. Older women are more likely to want large families than younger women, and women just beginning their families say they want to have about five children. Marriage Almost all Sudanese women marry during their lifetime. At the time of the survey, 55 percent of women 15-49 were currently married and 5 percent were widowed or divorced. Nearly one in five currently married women lives in a polygynous union (i.e., is married to a man who has more than one wife). The prevalence of polygyny is about the same in the SDHS as it was in the Sudan Fertility Survey. Marriage occurs at a fairly young age, although there is a trend toward later marriage among younger women (especially those with junior secondary or higher level of schooling). The proportion of women 15-49 who have never married is 12 percentage points higher in the SDHS than in the Sudan Fertiliy Survey. There has been a substantial increase in the average age at first marriage in Sudan. Among SDHS. Since age at first marriage is closely associated with fertility, it is likely that fertility will decrease in the future. With marriages occurring later, women am having their first birth at a later age. While one in three women age 45-49 had her first birth before age 18, only one in six women age 20-24 began childbearing prior to age 18. The women most likely to postpone marriage and childbearing are those who live in urban areas ur in the Khartoum and Northern regions, and women with pest-primary education. Breastfeeding and postpartum abstinence Breastfeeding and postpartum abstinence provide substantial protection from pregnancy after the birth uf a child. In addition to the health benefits to the child, breastfeeding prolongs the length of postpartum amenorrhea. In Sudan, almost all women breastfeed their children; 93 percent of children are still being breastfed 10-11 months after birth, and 41 percent continue breastfeeding for 20-21 months. Postpartum abstinence is traditional in Sudan and in the first two months following the birth of a child 90 percent of women were abstaining; this decreases to 32 percent after two months, and to 5 percent at~er one year. The survey results indicate that the combined effects of breastfeeding and postpartum abstinence protect women from pregnancy for an average of 15 months after the birth of a child. Knowledge and use of contraception Most currently married women (71 percent) know at least one method of family planning, and 59 percent know a source for a method. The pill (70 percent) is the most widely known method, followed by injection, female sterilisation, and the IUD. Only 39 percent of women knew a traditional method of family planning. Despite widespread knowledge of family planning, only about one-fourth of ever-married women have ever used a contraceptive method, and among currently married women, only 9 percent were using a method at the time of the survey (6 percent modem methods and 3 percent traditional methods). The level of contraceptive use while still low, has increased from less than 5 percent reported in the Sudan Fertility Survey. Use of family planning varies by age, residence, and level of education. Current use is less than 4 percent among women 15-19, increases to 10 percent for women 30-44, then decreases to 6 percent for women 45-49. Seventeen percent of urban women practice family planning compared with only 4 percent of rural women; and women with senior secondary education are more likely to practice family planning (26 percent) than women with no education (3 percent). There is widespread approval of family planning in Sudan. Almost two-thirds of currently married women who know a family planning method approve of the use of contraception. Husbands generally share their wives's views on family planning. Three-fourths of married women who were not using a contraceptive method at the time of the survey said they did not intend to use a method in the future. Communication between husbands and wives is important for successful family planning. Less than half of currently married women who know a contraceptive method said they had talked about family planning with their husbands in the year before the survey; one in four women discussed it once or twice; and one in five discussed it more than twice. Younger women and older women were less likely to discuss family planning than those age 20 to 39. Mortality among children The neonatal mortality rate in Sudan remained virtually unchanged in the decade between the SDHS and the SFS (44 deaths per 1000 births), but under-five mortality decreased by 14 percent (from 143 deaths per 1000 births to 123 per thousand). Under-five mortality is 19 percent lower in urban areas (117 per 1000 births) than in rural areas (144 per 10(30 births). The level of mother's education and the length of the preceding birth interval play important roles in child survival. Children of mothers with no education experience nearly twice the level of under-five mortality as children whose mother had attained senior secondary or nigher education. Mortality among children under five is 2.7 times higher among children born after an interval of less than 24 months than among children born after interval of 48 months or more. Maternal mortality The maternal mortality rate (maternal deaths per 1000 women years of exposure) has remained nearly constant over the twenty years preceding the survey, while the maternal mortality ratio (number of maternal deaths per 100,000 births), has increased (despite declining fertility). Using the direct method of estimation, the maternal mortality ratio is 352 maternal deaths per 100,000 births for the period 1976-82, and 552 per 100,000 births for the period 1983-89. The indirect estimate for the maternal mortality ratio is 537. The latter estimate is an average of women's experience over an extended period before the survey centred on 1977. Maternal health care The health care mothers receive during pregnancy and delivery is important to the survival and well-being of both children and mothers. The SDHS results indicate that most women in Sudan made at least one antenatal visit to a doctor or trained health worker/midwife. Eighty-seven percent of births benefitted from professional antenatal care in urban areas compared with 62 percent in rural areas. Although the proportion of pregnant mothers seen by trained health workers/midwives are similar in urban and rural areas, doctors provided antenatal care for 42 percent and 19 percent of births in urban and rural areas, respectively. Neonatal tetanus, a major cause of infant deaths in developing countries, can be prevented if mothers receive tetanus toxoid vaccinations.

Descriptive statistics of married women in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Total fertility rates (TFR) among women aged 15–49 from January 1994 to December 2018.

a) Percentage distribution of surveyed facilities according to readiness scores in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Malawi, and Namibia. b) Percentage distribution of surveyed facilities according to readiness scores in Nepal, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and the DRC. (ZIP)

Independent factors associated with fertility changes among women aged 15–49 years (1994–2018): Multivariable analysis.

Percentage distribution of surveyed facilities according to their background characteristics in the 10 countries surveyed using the SPA.

Models of negative binomial regression for variables associated with a health facility’s readiness to provide FP services in the 10 countries surveyed using the SPA.

Gestational weight gain (GWG) estimates for the year 2020 by regions and national income level derived from hierarchical modeling.