According to recent projections, the impact of reciprocal tariffs worldwide will lead to a short-term acceleration of prices by 0.71 percent. The U.S. is expected to experience the highest price index increase, estimated at 7.26 percent.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data, tables, and charts presented in Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans, PIIE Policy Brief 24-1.

If you use the data, please cite as: Clausing, Kimberly, and Mary E. Lovely. 2024. Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans. PIIE Policy Brief 24-1. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

The imposition of tariffs has substantially impacted global economies, with rising costs and inflation taking center stage. In the United States, the implementation of new tariffs on imported goods has caused a significant surge in consumer prices, particularly in sectors like electronics, apparel, and automotive. U.S. GDP is projected to experience a loss of approximately 1.1%, which translates to a $170 billion reduction in economic output.

Moreover, the tariffs have eroded consumer purchasing power, with households expected to lose about $3,800 annually. These measures have forced businesses to reevaluate their supply chains and cost structures, further influencing the global trade environment. As inflation rises, central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, face growing pressure to manage the economic fallout, balancing inflation control with economic growth.

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In May 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in May 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

The imposition of tariffs has had significant repercussions on the U.S. economy, with rising import costs and disrupted supply chains being among the most notable effects. Tariffs on key components for industries like electronics and robotics have increased manufacturing costs, leading to higher prices for consumers.

This affects businesses by squeezing profit margins and forcing them to make difficult decisions about absorbing these costs or passing them on to customers. The tariff-driven inflation also negatively impacts consumer purchasing power, reducing overall demand for non-essential goods.

Additionally, businesses dependent on international supply chains are facing delays, inefficiencies, and rising transportation costs. In the robotics sector, tariffs on foreign hardware components have made it more expensive for companies to source critical parts, thus slowing down production.

The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs also discourages investment in innovation and expansion, as companies remain cautious in an unpredictable global trade environment. This overall slowdown in economic activity could delay the full potential of emerging technologies like humanoid robots, which rely on global collaboration for research and development.

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Peloton's shares dropped by 5.8% following the announcement of U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, raising concerns of increased production costs and inflation.

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in June from 2.40 percent in May of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

US Tariff Impact on the Market

The global foldable drone market, particularly in the U.S., is influenced by tariffs imposed on Chinese imports. In 2023, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on drone components from China, which impacted manufacturers' costs, leading to an increase in drone prices. This shift has driven companies to explore alternate supply chain strategies, including domestic production and sourcing from non-tariffed countries.

While tariffs have raised prices, they have also led to a surge in demand for locally produced drones, with U.S. companies increasing investment in R&D and manufacturing facilities. Despite price hikes, consumer demand for foldable drones remains strong, particularly in commercial sectors like photography, surveying, and infrastructure inspection.

US Tariff Impact Percentage for Impacted Sector

• Tariff Rates and Impact on Drone Prices:

In April 2025, the U.S. imposed a cumulative 170% tariff on Chinese-made drones, including models from DJI, due to national security concerns.

• Legislative Actions and Proposals:

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers urged the Biden administration to increase tariffs on Chinese-made drones and implement incentives to support U.S. drone manufacturers.

House Republicans proposed legislation to boost tariffs on Chinese-made drones by 30% initially, with annual increases, and to ban imports of drones containing critical Chinese components by 2030.

• Economic Impact on Drone Components:

The tariffs led to cost inflation and delayed availability of critical drone components, including lithium-ion batteries, electronic speed controllers, sensors, and optics, which were predominantly sourced from China.

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Economic Impact

• The imposition of tariffs increased the production costs of foldable drones.
• Companies responded by raising prices or seeking alternative manufacturing regions.
• Despite cost pressures, demand in sectors like photography, real estate, and infrastructure inspection remains strong.

Geographical Impact

• North America, especially the U.S., remains a leading market, accounting for over 39% of global share.
• European and Asian markets are growing as demand for foldable drones expands in commercial and recreational sectors.
• The rise in local manufacturing in the U.S. due to tariffs impacts the global supply chain.

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The study of Jürgen Nautz deals with selected aspects of tariff autonomy and wage development during the years of inflation in the Weimar Republic. First the development of wages will be presented in the context of cost of living. To investigate the question of tariff autonomy in the inflation period it is of special interest to analyze the usage of arbitration instruments by unions, management and the state. Another central subject of this study is the fundamental position concerning the question of the design of important relations. Two themes are in the focus of interest; the ideas of the further refinement of the collective bargaining principle and the arbitration of labor disputes.Especially concerning tariff autonomy legal positions were developed during the inflation years which had an important impact on the discussion about tariff autonomy during the entire period the Weimar Republic. Data tables in HISTAT:A.1 Development of cost of living: Index of the statistical office of the German Empire (1920-1923)A.2 Index of average real weekly wages per collective agreement Index (1913-1923)A.3 Real weekly and real hourly wages of unskilled and skilled workers (1919-1923)A.4 Strikes and lockouts (1918-1924) A.5 Number of collective agreements (1918-1929)

Inflation Rate in China increased to 0.10 percent in June from -0.10 percent in May of 2025. This dataset provides - China Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs have created significant disruptions in global supply chains, leading to higher production and operational costs. In the U.S., tariffs imposed on food imports have directly impacted the foodservice sector, including full-service restaurants. The increased cost of ingredients, equipment, and even labor due to higher import duties has squeezed restaurant profit margins.

Additionally, businesses are experiencing delays in product deliveries, resulting in supply shortages that impact menu offerings and customer satisfaction. While some restaurants have absorbed these higher costs, many have been forced to increase prices, contributing to inflation.

Consumer spending is also impacted as the cost of dining out rises, reducing discretionary spending in other sectors. Tariffs are exacerbating challenges in an already competitive market, forcing FSR businesses to adapt their sourcing strategies, rethink their pricing models, and invest in automation to offset higher costs. In the long term, tariffs may result in fewer investment opportunities and slower growth in the foodservice industry.

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Following the BoE’s interest rate cut, explore the immediate impact on the UK economy and how finance professionals and businesses can navigate the prospect of future reductions.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

The imposition of tariffs has led to a surge in consumer prices, particularly in sectors reliant on imported goods. Apparel prices, for instance, have increased by 64% in the short term. This inflationary pressure has eroded household purchasing power, with average losses estimated at $3,800 per household.

Additionally, the U.S. economy is projected to experience a persistent 0.6% reduction in GDP annually, amounting to a $170 billion loss. The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing inflation control with economic growth, as the tariffs contribute to increased inflation expectations.

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Inflation can cause costly misallocations of resources as consumers seek to protect the purchasing power of their nominal assets. This research deals with the nature of these distortions, known as "shoe-leather costs," in a model where the demand for money is motivated by a shopping-time constraint. While the estimates of the shoe-leather costs of long-run inflation (implied by this model) are generally consistent with previous studies, the research shows that the transition between inflation rates can involve dynamics that alter the nature of these welfare effects. Specifically, the benefits of a disinflation policy are mitigated by the gradual adjustment of the economy in response to a lower inflation rate. This transition can be particularly protracted when there is uncertainty about the credibility of the disinflation policy.

Discover the impact of tariff uncertainty and inflation on the snacking industry, with major brands like Campbell's and PepsiCo experiencing shifts in consumer behavior and sales.

2022 and 2023 were characterized by leaping inflation rates. These were caused by a multiple of factors, but post-corona (COVID-19) challenges and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February that year had a major impact. However, the inflation rates in all countries included were forecast to stabilize through 2022 and 2023. More information about global inflation can be found here.

In 2024, Japan had an average inflation rate estimated at 2.74 percent, marking the highest rate of inflation in Japan in almost a decade. However, this figure was still very low compared to most other major economies, such as Japan's fellow G7 members, four of which had inflation rates around six or seven percent in 2023 due to the global inflation crisis. Why is Japan's inflation rate lower? There are a number of contributing factors to Japan's relatively low inflation rate, even during economic crises. Japan eased its Covid restrictions more slowly than most other major economies, this prevented post-pandemic consumer spending that may have driven inflation through supply chain issues caused by higher demand. As the majority of Japan's food and energy comes from overseas, and has done so for decades, the government has mechanisms in place to prevent energy and wheat prices from rising too quickly. Because of this, Japan was able to shield its private sector from many of the negative knock on effects from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which had a significant impact on both sectors globally. Persistent deflation and national debt An additional factor that has eased the impact of inflation on Japan's economy is the fact that it experienced deflation before the pandemic. Deflation has been a persistent problem in Japan since the asset price bubble burst in 1992, and has been symptomatic of Japan's staggering national debt thereafter. For almost 30 years, a combination of quantitative easing, low interest rates (below 0.5 percent since 1995, and at -0.1% since 2016), and a lack of spending due to low wages and an aging population have combined to give Japan the highest national debt in the world in absolute terms, and second-highest debt in relation to its GDP, after Venezuela. Despite this soaring debt, Japan remains the fourth-largest economy in the world, behind the U.S., China, and Germany.