Discover how OPEC+ output hikes and tariff policies contribute to oil price volatility, with insights from the EIA.

Brent crude oil is projected to have an average annual spot price of 65.85 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2025, according to a forecast from May 2025. This would mean a decrease of nearly 15 U.S. dollars compared to the previous year, and also reflects a reduced forecast WTI crude oil price. Lower economic activity, an increase in OPEC+ production output, and uncertainty over trade tariffs all impacted price forecasting. All about Brent Also known as Brent Blend, London Brent, and Brent petroleum, Brent Crude is a crude oil benchmark named after the exploration site in the North Sea's Brent oilfield. It is a sweet light crude oil but slightly heavier than West Texas Intermediate. In this context, sweet refers to a low sulfur content and light refers to a relatively low density when compared to other crude oil benchmarks. Price development in the 2020s Oil prices are volatile, impacted by consumer demand and discoveries of new oilfields, new extraction methods such as fracking, and production caps routinely placed by OPEC on its member states. The price for Brent crude oil stood at an average of just 42 U.S. dollars in 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic resulted in a sudden demand drop. Two years later, sanctions on Russian energy imports, had pushed up prices to a new decade-high, above 100 U.S. dollars per barrel.

Oil prices dipped as OPEC+ plans to increase output and U.S. tariff concerns create economic uncertainty.

Crude Oil rose to 65.49 USD/Bbl on July 23, 2025, up 0.27% from the previous day. Over the past month, Crude Oil's price has risen 1.73%, but it is still 15.60% lower than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Crude Oil - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

In May 2025, the average price of Oriente crude oil from Ecuador amounted to 57.11 U.S. dollars per barrel. This was lower than prices earlier in the year as announcements over U.S. trade tariffs led to market uncertainty and put downward pressure on crude prices.

The U.S. oil industry is facing challenges due to fluctuating prices and tariffs, leading to potential reductions in output and employment.

Revenue for the Canadian Petroleum Refining industry has been volatile. Crude oil is the primary input into industry products, and therefore, its price is the primary driver of industry revenue. However, the pandemic's collapse in oil prices in 2020 drove refinancing revenue down. Subsequently, high demand and ongoing supply chain disruptions led crude oil prices to spike sharply, translating into an industry revenue boom in 2021 and 2022. However, tempering oil prices in 2024 and potentially 2025 will depress revenue growth during the period. Overall, industry revenue is forecast to fall at a CAGR of 0.2% to $85.4 billion over the five years to 2025. In 2025, tempering oil prices are forecast to produce a revenue contraction of 4.6% for the industry. Like volatile revenue, the industry's profitability has tracked changes in oil prices. The shift in travel behaviours post-pandemic caused demand to surge, especially from downstream transportation markets. In 2020, refinery profits hit a five-year low, averaging just 5.7% across the industry. However, the surge in demand that followed has led to an industry-wide profit improvement, even as higher crude oil prices have raised purchase costs. The highly concentrated industry's structure has, meanwhile, remained largely unaltered. In 2025, profit is expected to reach 12.9% of revenue. The industry is projected to contract slowly as global oil prices continue to temper. Trade uncertainty and tariff pressures will lower oil prices and demand. Accordingly, industry revenue is forecast to contract at a CAGR of 0.9% to $81.8 billion over the five years to 2030. However, volatility is likely to intercede given global upheaval. Since 2022, the Canadian government has announced a ban on imports of crude oil from Russia in response to that country's invasion of Ukraine.

This paper examines the effects of oil demand and supply shocks on emerging market economies in Latin America using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model that combines zero and sign restrictions. Our results highlight the importance of separately identify the oil market shocks. The higher price of oil driven by increased global demand produce higher output growth in Brazil, Colombia, and Chile. The results are more persistent for Brazil and Colombia likely due to increased income from oil exports, as both economies are net oil exporters. The better times in the domestic economies result in lower uncertainty and the exchange rates appreciate in the sample economies. Oil supply shocks and oil-specific demand shocks are not statistically significant for most variables. Our results provide important insights into the appropriate exchange rate policy in emerging market economies.

The Gas Utilities industry comprises all stages required to deliver gas to end users in France, including generation, transmission, distribution and supply. France is almost entirely dependent on imports for its natural gas supply, cutting gas generation and transmission out of the supply chain. This means the industry is dominated by gas supply, though distribution also plays a key role in transporting gas from import terminals to end users. De-industrialisation has spurred a long-term decline in gas consumption in France, with decarbonisation efforts accelerating this downward trend in recent years. Despite falling consumption, revenue is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 12.3% over the five years through 2025, reaching €46 billion. Gas suppliers have been hit by volatility in global energy markets in recent years. Declining gas consumption and falling wholesale market prices spurred a slump in revenue during the pandemic, with a higher number of defaults on customer bills spurring also eating into profitability. Revenue bounced back in 2021 as geopolitical tensions spurred rapid growth in wholesale prices, leading to widespread tariff increases. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a renewed surge in natural gas prices necessitated government intervention through the introduction of a tariff shield. While this limited revenue growth and constrained profitability in household and small business gas supply markets in 2022, the absence of a price cap for large energy users contributed to strong revenue growth. Although natural gas prices dropped by more than two-thirds in 2023, revenue remained well above 2021 levels, as ongoing uncertainty and the abolishment of regulated prices made companies reluctant to cut tariffs significantly. Natural gas prices continued to come down in 2024 and are showing signs of stabilising in 2025. However, this is yet to translate into widespread tariff reductions, owing to ongoing volatility in global commodity markets and a recent hike in GRDF’s distribution tariff. Still, revenue is forecast to decline by 8.4% in 2025.Over the five years through 2030, revenue is slated to fall at a compound annual rate of 0.2% to €45.6 billion. Intensified competition following the de-regulation of prices should limit the scope for significant tariff increases as natural gas prices continue to stabilise. In line with climate goals, gas consumption is set to drop 20% by 2030, weighing on growth prospects. The integration of renewable gases is set to continue to inflate distribution charges, while presenting opportunities for gas suppliers to target eco-conscious households and businesses.

During Q1 2025, Stearic Acid prices in North America declined approximately 9%, driven by ample inventories, weak demand, and lower production costs due to falling feedstock prices and freight rates. In January, declining palm oil production in Southeast Asia, especially in Malaysia, along with falling exports and weaker futures, led to reduced global Stearic Acid production costs. The uncertainty around Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel policy and competition from soybean oil further pressured palm oil prices.

Technological advances in directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have boosted US oil and gas output to record highs, significantly strengthening the country’s role as a primary energy supplier and exporter. This production boom has supported a steady increase in natural gas liquid production and met global supply needs amid international disruptions, such as the sanctions on Russia’s energy exports. Industrial expansion and a surge in construction activity have also driven up demand for diesel and gasoline, while electric power generator sales have remained strong. In this environment, the industry generated $15.8 billion in revenue for 2025, growing by 1.0% over the year. Despite the moderation in headline growth, profit rose 7.9% in 2025 as operators benefited from high utilization and stable, fee-based contracts. The US refined petroleum pipeline industry has also experienced stable but slowing revenue growth over the last five years, with a current five-year revenue CAGR of 2.3%. Several key trends are shaping industry performance in 2025. Domestic energy production remains robust, supported by volatile but generally elevated energy prices and ongoing industrial demand, particularly in plastics, manufacturing and power generation sectors. Near-term demand has remained resilient even as electric vehicle adoption accelerates and policy shifts gradually favor renewable energy. At the same time, pipeline operators are facing cost headwinds from lingering tariff pressures on imported steel and aluminum, materials critical for new pipeline construction and maintenance. Tariffs have pushed up input costs, prompting companies to focus on efficiency gains and technology investments, such as Smart Grid networks, to optimize operations and safeguard margins. Market consolidation continues as larger operators seek scale in a shifting regulatory landscape, while ongoing geopolitical risks and energy price volatility reinforce the sector’s focus on reliability and logistics innovation. The broader economic environment, including expectations of lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve, will likely sustain liquidity and support capital access for critical infrastructure upgrades. Looking forward, the outlook for the refined petroleum pipeline industry will be defined by a slower growth trajectory and a gradually evolving energy mix. Persistent demand for petroleum-based products in key sectors will be balanced against regulatory uncertainty, evolving energy transition policies and more modest expansion in new pipeline capacity as energy prices ease. Advances in automation and digital pipeline management should partially offset the impact of slower volume growth and rising compliance costs. Over the next five years, industry revenue is expected to increase at a CAGR of 1.2%, reaching $16.8 billion by 2030, with profit growth strengthening from 7.9% in 2025 to an estimated 8.5% by 2030, as operators adapt to the evolving market landscape.

The inflation rates of various energy commodities in the European Union began to decrease in late 2022 after skyrocketing earlier that year. Liquid fuels' inflation rate stood at -12 percent in April 2025 after having seen the steepest increase in June 2022 at 88 percent. These developments occurred following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has been the cause of uncertainty over Europe's security of gas supply, as well as intense energy price volatility. Since 2024, the electricity and gas prices have shown an increasing trend.

Liquid fuel price inflation in Portugal peaked in June 2022, with the HICP standing at 62.5 percent. By comparison, gas inflation rate peaked in October 2022 at 74 percent. Overall, the inflation rates of energy commodity prices in Portugal began to increase significantly in 2021. These increases in inflation were driven further by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has caused uncertainty over Europe's security of gas supply, as well as intense energy price volatility. After dropping in 2023, the HICP of energy commodities has increased in 2024.