The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost ************* after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to ***********. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

With Falguni Desai, Sr. Strategy Advisor in Banking & Capital Markets at Microsoft, explore strategies for banks across various divisions to navigate tariff uncertainty.

In May 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in May 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

The lumber industry has experienced significant volatility in recent years, with fluctuating prices impacting both the market and wider economy. During the pandemic, a housing boom driven by low interest rates and increased disposable income led to a surge in demand for lumber, significantly boosting mill revenues. However, prices later tumbled, affecting revenue as higher interest rates cooled the housing market and reduced demand for construction. Lumber production and shipments experienced declines, and the industry faced operating losses due to decreased demand. Looking ahead, prices are expected to rise due to tariffs on Canadian lumber imports and previous supply shortages, although high mortgage rates may still dampen demand. The ongoing trade dispute between Canada and the U.S. has resulted in increased tariffs, impacting Canadian producers who supply softwood lumber to the US market. Industry revenue is expected to rise at a CAGR of 2.6% to $51.6 billion through the end of 2025, with 2.0% growth forecast for the current year. Industry profit is expected to recover alongside rising lumber prices this year as well. The US housing market plays a crucial role in the lumber industry by driving demand for wooden materials used in construction and renovation. Despite past challenges with high interest rates and elevated home prices hurting residential investments and reducing lumber demand, there is optimism that the recent Federal Reserve rate will eventually translate to lower mortgage rates, potentially rejuvenating the housing market and building material demand. Even with these promising signs, a significant affordability barrier remains as home prices continue to overshadow median incomes, discouraging many first-time buyers and thus impeding growth in the housing market, impacting lumber demand negatively. The industry is also dealing with profitability challenges due to high costs and declining lumber prices, which have led to sawmill closures and under-utilization of capacities, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency. As a response, the industry is likely to see consolidation within domestic mill operations to maintain profitability amid market fluctuations. A notable development in the sector is the growth of the cross-laminated timber (CLT) specialist subsector, which promises a boom, supported by innovations in fire retardant technology and approvals for new timber certifications, like eastern hemlock trees, broadening opportunities for sustainable construction. Revenue is expected to increase at a CAGR of 1.6% to $55.9 billion through the end of 2030.

This dataset contains information about the cost of living in almost 5000 cities across the world. The data were gathered by scraping Numbeo's website (https://www.numbeo.com).

Data dictionary

Column	Description
city	Name of the city
country	Name of the country
x1	Meal, Inexpensive Restaurant (USD)
x2	Meal for 2 People, Mid-range Restaurant, Three-course (USD)
x3	McMeal at McDonalds (or Equivalent Combo Meal) (USD)
x4	Domestic Beer (0.5 liter draught, in restaurants) (USD)
x5	Imported Beer (0.33 liter bottle, in restaurants) (USD)
x6	Cappuccino (regular, in restaurants) (USD)
x7	Coke/Pepsi (0.33 liter bottle, in restaurants) (USD)
x8	Water (0.33 liter bottle, in restaurants) (USD)
x9	Milk (regular), (1 liter) (USD)
x10	Loaf of Fresh White Bread (500g) (USD)
x11	Rice (white), (1kg) (USD)
x12	Eggs (regular) (12) (USD)
x13	Local Cheese (1kg) (USD)
x14	Chicken Fillets (1kg) (USD)
x15	Beef Round (1kg) (or Equivalent Back Leg Red Meat) (USD)
x16	Apples (1kg) (USD)
x17	Banana (1kg) (USD)
x18	Oranges (1kg) (USD)
x19	Tomato (1kg) (USD)
x20	Potato (1kg) (USD)
x21	Onion (1kg) (USD)
x22	Lettuce (1 head) (USD)
x23	Water (1.5 liter bottle, at the market) (USD)
x24	Bottle of Wine (Mid-Range, at the market) (USD)
x25	Domestic Beer (0.5 liter bottle, at the market) (USD)
x26	Imported Beer (0.33 liter bottle, at the market) (USD)
x27	Cigarettes 20 Pack (Marlboro) (USD)
x28	One-way Ticket (Local Transport) (USD)
x29	Monthly Pass (Regular Price) (USD)
x30	Taxi Start (Normal Tariff) (USD)
x31	Taxi 1km (Normal Tariff) (USD)
x32	Taxi 1hour Waiting (Normal Tariff) (USD)
x33	Gasoline (1 liter) (USD)
x34	Volkswagen Golf 1.4 90 KW Trendline (Or Equivalent New Car) (USD)
x35	Toyota Corolla Sedan 1.6l 97kW Comfort (Or Equivalent New Car) (USD)
x36	Basic (Electricity, Heating, Cooling, Water, Garbage) for 85m2 Apartment (USD)
x37	1 min. of Prepaid Mobile Tariff Local (No Discounts or Plans) (USD)
x38	Internet (60 Mbps or More, Unlimited Data, Cable/ADSL) (USD)
x39	Fitness Club, Monthly Fee for 1 Adult (USD)
x40	Tennis Court Rent (1 Hour on Weekend) (USD)
x41	Cinema, International Release, 1 Seat (USD)
x42	Preschool (or Kindergarten), Full Day, Private, Monthly for 1 Child (USD)
x43	International Primary School, Yearly for 1 Child (USD)
x44	1 Pair of Jeans (Levis 501 Or Similar) (USD)
x45	1 Summer Dress in a Chain Store (Zara, H&M, ...) (USD)
x46	1 Pair of Nike Running Shoes (Mid-Range) (USD)
x47	1 Pair of Men Leather Business Shoes (USD)
x48	Apartment (1 bedroom) in City Centre (USD)
x49	Apartment (1 bedroom) Outside of Centre (USD)
x50	Apartment (3 bedrooms) in City Centre (USD)
x51	Apartment (3 bedrooms) Outside of Centre (USD)
x52	Price per Square Meter to Buy Apartment in City Centre (USD)
x53	Price per Square Meter to Buy Apartment Outside of Centre (USD)
x54	Average Monthly Net Salary (After Tax) (USD)
x55	Mortgage Interest Rate in Percentages (%), Yearly, for 20 Years Fixed-Rate
data_quality	0 if Numbeo considers that more contributors are needed to increase data quality, else 1