According to recent projections, the impact of reciprocal tariffs worldwide will lead to a short-term acceleration of prices by 0.71 percent. The U.S. is expected to experience the highest price index increase, estimated at 7.26 percent.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data, tables, and charts presented in Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans, PIIE Policy Brief 24-1.

If you use the data, please cite as: Clausing, Kimberly, and Mary E. Lovely. 2024. Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans. PIIE Policy Brief 24-1. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Tariffs have long been central tool in global trade policy. Learn how tariffs affect critical US industries, and how businesses are navigating their impacts.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs have created significant disruption in the global economy, increasing the cost of goods and raw materials, which has impacted many industries, including the cold chain sector. In the U.S., tariffs on imported goods have raised the price of raw materials for cold chain technologies, such as sensors and refrigerants.

As the cost of production rises, businesses are facing increased operational costs, which are often passed on to consumers, resulting in higher prices for goods. These tariff-induced price increases are contributing to inflation, reducing consumer purchasing power. Additionally, tariffs are disrupting global supply chains, causing delays in shipping and increasing transportation costs.

For industries reliant on global trade, including food and pharmaceuticals, this presents significant challenges in maintaining efficient and cost-effective supply chains.

Companies are now rethinking their sourcing strategies, considering alternatives like nearshoring or reshoring to mitigate the impact of tariffs on operations. This could lead to greater supply chain diversification but also higher operational costs in the short term.

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Graph and download economic data for Inflation, consumer prices for the United States (FPCPITOTLZGUSA) from 1960 to 2024 about consumer, CPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

In June 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In the first half of 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at 0.1 percent in June 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.4 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

How Tariffs are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs impact the economy by raising the cost of imported goods and materials, which can lead to inflation. For industries like cable manufacturing, tariffs on raw materials and components increase production costs. These price hikes often get passed on to consumers, making goods more expensive and reducing disposable income. Tariffs also create uncertainty in global trade, disrupting established supply chains and delaying manufacturing schedules.

Companies may need to seek alternative suppliers or manufacturing locations, which can result in inefficiencies or delays in production. In the cold shrink cable accessories market, tariffs on key materials such as cable components could increase manufacturing costs, especially in the Asia-Pacific region where most production occurs. Additionally, businesses may face difficulties in expanding into new markets or maintaining competitiveness due to the rising cost of imported components and retaliatory tariffs from other countries.

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How Tariffs are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs have a far-reaching effect on the economy by altering trade relationships, leading to price inflation for businesses and consumers alike. Increased import costs caused by tariffs on goods such as electronics, machinery, and raw materials significantly raise production costs.

As a result, businesses face increased expenses that can erode profit margins and lead to higher prices for consumers. Additionally, tariffs can disrupt international supply chains by making foreign goods less affordable, ultimately resulting in delayed production times and inconsistent product availability.

These disruptions impact the efficiency of global supply chains, forcing companies to reassess their sourcing and pricing strategies. While tariffs may benefit domestic industries by reducing foreign competition, their overall negative effects on inflation and global trade are substantial.

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Building materials made of steel, copper and other metals had some of the highest price growth rates in the U.S. in the first half of 2025 in comparison to the previous year. The growth rate of the cost of several construction materials was slightly lower than in late 2024. It is important to note, though, that the figures provided are Producer Price Indices, which cover production within the United States, but do not include imports or tariffs. This might matter for lumber, as Canada's wood production is normally large enough that the U.S. can import it from its neighboring country. Construction material prices in the United Kingdom Similarly to these trends in the U.S., at that time the price growth rate of construction materials in the UK were generally lower 2024 than in 2023. Nevertheless, the cost of some construction materials in the UK still rose that year, with several of those items reaching price growth rates of over **** percent. Considering that those materials make up a very big share of the costs incurred for a construction project, those developments may also have affected the average construction output price in the UK. Construction material shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic During the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, there often were supply problems and material shortages, which created instability in the construction market. According to a survey among construction contractors, the construction materials most affected by shortages in the U.S. during most of 2021 were steel and lumber. This was also a problem on the other side of the Atlantic: The share of building construction companies experiencing shortages in Germany soared between March and June 2021, staying at high levels for over a year. Meanwhile, the shortage of material or equipment was one of the main factors limiting the building activity in France in June 2022.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

The imposition of tariffs has substantially impacted global economies, with rising costs and inflation taking center stage. In the United States, the implementation of new tariffs on imported goods has caused a significant surge in consumer prices, particularly in sectors like electronics, apparel, and automotive. U.S. GDP is projected to experience a loss of approximately 1.1%, which translates to a $170 billion reduction in economic output.

Moreover, the tariffs have eroded consumer purchasing power, with households expected to lose about $3,800 annually. These measures have forced businesses to reevaluate their supply chains and cost structures, further influencing the global trade environment. As inflation rises, central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, face growing pressure to manage the economic fallout, balancing inflation control with economic growth.

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This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency, PIIE Working Paper 24-20.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland. 2024. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency. PIIE Working Paper 24-20. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

How Tariffs are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs significantly affect the economy by raising the costs of imported goods and services, which can lead to inflation and reduced consumer spending. In industries like AI-driven policy and governance agents, tariffs on hardware components such as servers, chips, and computing devices increase production costs. For businesses relying on international supply chains, these rising costs are often passed on to consumers, making AI solutions more expensive.

Additionally, tariffs disrupt global supply chains by making it harder to source materials efficiently, which can lead to delays in product development and slower adoption of new technologies. This slowdown could hinder the growth of AI applications in sectors like regulatory compliance and governance.

Furthermore, the uncertainty created by tariffs can make it difficult for businesses to plan for the future, affecting investments and long-term strategies. For AI-driven solutions, higher operational costs may impact the ability to offer cost-effective regulatory tools, reducing market accessibility.

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How Tariffs are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs impose additional costs on imported goods, which directly affect production costs and consumer prices. For industries dependent on international supply chains, these rising costs can lead to higher prices for end consumers.

As tariffs increase, businesses may face a reduction in profit margins, forcing them to either absorb the costs or pass them on to consumers. Additionally, tariffs can result in supply chain shifts as companies seek out alternative suppliers or move production to countries with lower tariffs.

The impact extends beyond the immediate sectors affected, influencing overall economic growth by slowing down trade flows, leading to inflation, and potentially reducing consumer purchasing power. Retaliatory tariffs from other countries may also exacerbate these effects, creating a cycle of escalating trade tensions and uncertainty in the global market.

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The global fuel energy price index stood at 166.79 index points in May 2025, up from 100 in the base year 2016. Figures increased that month due to greater demand for motor fuels and cooling. The fuel energy index includes prices for crude oil, natural gas, coal, and propane. Supply constraints across multiple commodities The global natural gas price index surged nearly 11-fold, and the global coal price index rose almost seven-fold from summer 2020 to summer 2022. This notable escalation was largely attributed to the Russia-Ukraine war, exerting increased pressure on the global supply chain. Tariffs bring economic uncertainty With the global economy having adjusted to the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, new uncertainty has emerged due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. If these tariffs are fully implemented, global trade could be significantly disrupted, mainly the bilateral trade between the world’s two largest economies. In 2025, import tariffs between China and the United States exceeded 130 percent on both sides, while their tariffs on imports from the rest of the world were around 10 percent. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imported goods reached a high of 134.7 percent in April of that year, while China imposed a 147.6 percent tariff on U.S. goods. Early estimates indicate that the impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs on the U.S. economy could amount to 0.4 percent of GDP, mainly driven by the reduced trade with Mexico, Canada and China.

US Tariff Impact on the API Security Market

The imposition of U.S. tariffs has introduced significant challenges to the API Security Market, particularly affecting the IT and Telecom sectors. Tariffs have led to increased costs for telecom equipment and components imported from affected countries, with some hardware pricing seeing noticeable jumps due to tariffs reaching up to 100%.

These additional expenses often translate into higher prices for consumers and businesses, potentially reducing demand for telecom services. Furthermore, tariffs on hardware components essential for software development and deployment. Such as servers and networking equipment, have raised concerns about increased costs in the tech sector.

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These cost escalations can strain the financial viability of API security investments, particularly for large enterprises relying on imported hardware and cloud infrastructure. The uncertainty surrounding trade policies may also deter institutional investors. Who are pivotal in the API Security Market, from committing capital to projects susceptible to tariff-induced cost fluctuations?

Economic Impact

• Increased Operational Costs: Tariffs have led to higher prices for imported hardware, escalating operational expenses for businesses.
• Inflationary Pressures: The added costs contribute to inflation, affecting consumer spending and investment returns.
• Investment Uncertainty: Unpredictable trade policies may lead to deferred investment decisions, impacting the flow of capital into API security projects.

Geographical Impact

• North America: As the largest market, North America faces significant exposure to tariff-induced cost increases, particularly in the IT and Telecom sectors.
• Asia-Pacific: Tariffs may shift investment focus towards Asia-Pacific regions with favorable trade conditions, altering the geographical distribution of API security investments.
• Global Supply Chains: Disruptions in global supply chains due to tariffs can affect the implementation and success of API security projects worldwide.

Business Impact

• Strategic Reassessment: Businesses may need to reevaluate supply chains and sourcing strategies to mitigate tariff impacts.
• Cost Management: Increased costs necessitate enhanced financial planning and cost-control measures to maintain project viability.
• Investor Relations: Transparency regarding tariff impacts becomes crucial in maintaining investor confidence and securing funding.

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