According to recent projections, the impact of reciprocal tariffs worldwide will lead to a short-term acceleration of prices by 0.71 percent. The U.S. is expected to experience the highest price index increase, estimated at 7.26 percent.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data, tables, and charts presented in Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans, PIIE Policy Brief 24-1.

If you use the data, please cite as: Clausing, Kimberly, and Mary E. Lovely. 2024. Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans. PIIE Policy Brief 24-1. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

The imposition of tariffs has substantially impacted global economies, with rising costs and inflation taking center stage. In the United States, the implementation of new tariffs on imported goods has caused a significant surge in consumer prices, particularly in sectors like electronics, apparel, and automotive. U.S. GDP is projected to experience a loss of approximately 1.1%, which translates to a $170 billion reduction in economic output.

Moreover, the tariffs have eroded consumer purchasing power, with households expected to lose about $3,800 annually. These measures have forced businesses to reevaluate their supply chains and cost structures, further influencing the global trade environment. As inflation rises, central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, face growing pressure to manage the economic fallout, balancing inflation control with economic growth.

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Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs have created significant disruptions in global supply chains, leading to higher production and operational costs. In the U.S., tariffs imposed on food imports have directly impacted the foodservice sector, including full-service restaurants. The increased cost of ingredients, equipment, and even labor due to higher import duties has squeezed restaurant profit margins.

Additionally, businesses are experiencing delays in product deliveries, resulting in supply shortages that impact menu offerings and customer satisfaction. While some restaurants have absorbed these higher costs, many have been forced to increase prices, contributing to inflation.

Consumer spending is also impacted as the cost of dining out rises, reducing discretionary spending in other sectors. Tariffs are exacerbating challenges in an already competitive market, forcing FSR businesses to adapt their sourcing strategies, rethink their pricing models, and invest in automation to offset higher costs. In the long term, tariffs may result in fewer investment opportunities and slower growth in the foodservice industry.

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How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

The imposition of tariffs has had significant repercussions on the U.S. economy, with rising import costs and disrupted supply chains being among the most notable effects. Tariffs on key components for industries like electronics and robotics have increased manufacturing costs, leading to higher prices for consumers.

This affects businesses by squeezing profit margins and forcing them to make difficult decisions about absorbing these costs or passing them on to customers. The tariff-driven inflation also negatively impacts consumer purchasing power, reducing overall demand for non-essential goods.

Additionally, businesses dependent on international supply chains are facing delays, inefficiencies, and rising transportation costs. In the robotics sector, tariffs on foreign hardware components have made it more expensive for companies to source critical parts, thus slowing down production.

The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs also discourages investment in innovation and expansion, as companies remain cautious in an unpredictable global trade environment. This overall slowdown in economic activity could delay the full potential of emerging technologies like humanoid robots, which rely on global collaboration for research and development.

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Discover how new 25% tariffs on auto parts are poised to affect the automotive industry, increasing costs for automakers and consumers.

US Tariff Impact on the Market

The global foldable drone market, particularly in the U.S., is influenced by tariffs imposed on Chinese imports. In 2023, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on drone components from China, which impacted manufacturers' costs, leading to an increase in drone prices. This shift has driven companies to explore alternate supply chain strategies, including domestic production and sourcing from non-tariffed countries.

While tariffs have raised prices, they have also led to a surge in demand for locally produced drones, with U.S. companies increasing investment in R&D and manufacturing facilities. Despite price hikes, consumer demand for foldable drones remains strong, particularly in commercial sectors like photography, surveying, and infrastructure inspection.

US Tariff Impact Percentage for Impacted Sector

• Tariff Rates and Impact on Drone Prices:

In April 2025, the U.S. imposed a cumulative 170% tariff on Chinese-made drones, including models from DJI, due to national security concerns.

• Legislative Actions and Proposals:

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers urged the Biden administration to increase tariffs on Chinese-made drones and implement incentives to support U.S. drone manufacturers.

House Republicans proposed legislation to boost tariffs on Chinese-made drones by 30% initially, with annual increases, and to ban imports of drones containing critical Chinese components by 2030.

• Economic Impact on Drone Components:

The tariffs led to cost inflation and delayed availability of critical drone components, including lithium-ion batteries, electronic speed controllers, sensors, and optics, which were predominantly sourced from China.

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Economic Impact

• The imposition of tariffs increased the production costs of foldable drones.
• Companies responded by raising prices or seeking alternative manufacturing regions.
• Despite cost pressures, demand in sectors like photography, real estate, and infrastructure inspection remains strong.

Geographical Impact

• North America, especially the U.S., remains a leading market, accounting for over 39% of global share.
• European and Asian markets are growing as demand for foldable drones expands in commercial and recreational sectors.
• The rise in local manufacturing in the U.S. due to tariffs impacts the global supply chain.

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Egg prices are anticipated to decline as wholesale costs drop, providing relief to grocery shoppers. However, potential tariff impacts could influence future pricing trends.

In April 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 21 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in April 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 10.2 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

Building materials made of steel, copper and other metals had some of the highest price growth rates in the U.S. in early 2025 in comparison to the previous year. The growth rate of the cost of several construction materials was slightly lower than in late 2024. It is important to note, though, that the figures provided are Producer Price Indices, which cover production within the United States, but do not include imports or tariffs. This might matter for lumber, as Canada's wood production is normally large enough that the U.S. can import it from its neighboring country. Construction material prices in the United Kingdom Similarly to these trends in the U.S., at that time the price growth rate of construction materials in the UK were generally lower 2024 than in 2023. Nevertheless, the cost of some construction materials in the UK still rose that year, with several of those items reaching price growth rates of over **** percent. Considering that those materials make up a very big share of the costs incurred for a construction project, those developments may also have affected the average construction output price in the UK. Construction material shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic During the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, there often were supply problems and material shortages, which created instability in the construction market. According to a survey among construction contractors, the construction materials most affected by shortages in the U.S. during most of 2021 were steel and lumber. This was also a problem on the other side of the Atlantic: The share of building construction companies experiencing shortages in Germany soared between March and June 2021, staying at high levels for over a year. Meanwhile, the shortage of material or equipment was one of the main factors limiting the building activity in France in June 2022.

The study of Jürgen Nautz deals with selected aspects of tariff autonomy and wage development during the years of inflation in the Weimar Republic. First the development of wages will be presented in the context of cost of living. To investigate the question of tariff autonomy in the inflation period it is of special interest to analyze the usage of arbitration instruments by unions, management and the state. Another central subject of this study is the fundamental position concerning the question of the design of important relations. Two themes are in the focus of interest; the ideas of the further refinement of the collective bargaining principle and the arbitration of labor disputes.Especially concerning tariff autonomy legal positions were developed during the inflation years which had an important impact on the discussion about tariff autonomy during the entire period the Weimar Republic. Data tables in HISTAT:A.1 Development of cost of living: Index of the statistical office of the German Empire (1920-1923)A.2 Index of average real weekly wages per collective agreement Index (1913-1923)A.3 Real weekly and real hourly wages of unskilled and skilled workers (1919-1923)A.4 Strikes and lockouts (1918-1924) A.5 Number of collective agreements (1918-1929)

At the end of 2023, Zimbabwe had the highest inflation rate in the world, at 667.36 percent change compared to the previous year. Inflation in industrialized and in emerging countries Higher inflation rates are more present in less developed economies, as they often lack a sufficient central banking system, which in turn results in the manipulation of currency to achieve short term economic goals. Thus, interest rates increase while the general economic situation remains constant. In more developed economies and in the prime emerging markets, the inflation rate does not fluctuate as sporadically. Additionally, the majority of countries that maintained the lowest inflation rate compared to previous years are primarily oil producers or small island independent states. These countries experienced deflation, which occurs when the inflation rate falls below zero; this may happen for a variety of factors, such as a shift in supply or demand of goods and services, or an outflow of capital.

US Tariff Impact on the API Security Market

The imposition of U.S. tariffs has introduced significant challenges to the API Security Market, particularly affecting the IT and Telecom sectors. Tariffs have led to increased costs for telecom equipment and components imported from affected countries, with some hardware pricing seeing noticeable jumps due to tariffs reaching up to 100%.

These additional expenses often translate into higher prices for consumers and businesses, potentially reducing demand for telecom services. Furthermore, tariffs on hardware components essential for software development and deployment. Such as servers and networking equipment, have raised concerns about increased costs in the tech sector.

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These cost escalations can strain the financial viability of API security investments, particularly for large enterprises relying on imported hardware and cloud infrastructure. The uncertainty surrounding trade policies may also deter institutional investors. Who are pivotal in the API Security Market, from committing capital to projects susceptible to tariff-induced cost fluctuations?

Economic Impact

• Increased Operational Costs: Tariffs have led to higher prices for imported hardware, escalating operational expenses for businesses.
• Inflationary Pressures: The added costs contribute to inflation, affecting consumer spending and investment returns.
• Investment Uncertainty: Unpredictable trade policies may lead to deferred investment decisions, impacting the flow of capital into API security projects.

Geographical Impact

• North America: As the largest market, North America faces significant exposure to tariff-induced cost increases, particularly in the IT and Telecom sectors.
• Asia-Pacific: Tariffs may shift investment focus towards Asia-Pacific regions with favorable trade conditions, altering the geographical distribution of API security investments.
• Global Supply Chains: Disruptions in global supply chains due to tariffs can affect the implementation and success of API security projects worldwide.

Business Impact

• Strategic Reassessment: Businesses may need to reevaluate supply chains and sourcing strategies to mitigate tariff impacts.
• Cost Management: Increased costs necessitate enhanced financial planning and cost-control measures to maintain project viability.
• Investor Relations: Transparency regarding tariff impacts becomes crucial in maintaining investor confidence and securing funding.

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How Tariffs are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs have a far-reaching effect on the economy by altering trade relationships, leading to price inflation for businesses and consumers alike. Increased import costs caused by tariffs on goods such as electronics, machinery, and raw materials significantly raise production costs.

As a result, businesses face increased expenses that can erode profit margins and lead to higher prices for consumers. Additionally, tariffs can disrupt international supply chains by making foreign goods less affordable, ultimately resulting in delayed production times and inconsistent product availability.

These disruptions impact the efficiency of global supply chains, forcing companies to reassess their sourcing and pricing strategies. While tariffs may benefit domestic industries by reducing foreign competition, their overall negative effects on inflation and global trade are substantial.

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Discover the impact of tariff uncertainty and inflation on the snacking industry, with major brands like Campbell's and PepsiCo experiencing shifts in consumer behavior and sales.

Explore the 2023 market dynamics influencing maleic anhydride prices, including supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and increased demand from key sectors. Learn how sustainability trends and economic factors like inflation and trade tariffs impact market variability.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency, PIIE Working Paper 24-20.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland. 2024. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency. PIIE Working Paper 24-20. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs continue to exert significant pressure on the global economy, raising costs for businesses and consumers alike. In the U.S., tariffs have led to an increase in the price of imported goods, from raw materials to consumer products. This has resulted in higher production costs for manufacturers who rely on foreign components.

Additionally, tariffs disrupt global supply chains, leading to delays and inefficiencies. Businesses are now seeking new suppliers or reshoring operations to mitigate the impact of tariffs. As a result, tariffs are contributing to inflation, reducing household purchasing power, and creating uncertainties in international trade.

In the long term, these economic shifts could slow growth, as reduced trade and higher costs hamper economic activity. Businesses in sectors like electronics, automotive, and agriculture are feeling the brunt of these changes, forcing them to adjust their strategies for cost optimization and supply chain resilience.

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