Discover the implications of potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil imports and how the Trans Mountain Pipeline is poised to become a critical asset in optimizing Canada's oil export routes, especially toward Asian markets.

In April 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 21 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in April 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 10.2 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

This message pertains to the additional Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) volume for refined sugar exports to the United States under the Canada-United States – Mexico Agreement, referred to in Notice to exporters.

The recent housing market cycle has driven the sawmill and wood production industry’s performance. Initially, the surge in residential construction and renovation in Canada and the US in 2021, spurred by low interest rates and high disposable incomes, drove significant demand for softwood lumber, leading to a 43.5% jump in revenue for industry mills. However, rising interest rates in 2022 cooled housing demand, causing a significant drop in lumber prices and revenue. In 2024, the industry faced ongoing challenges due to rising costs, tariffs and reduced demand, with major companies like West Fraser and Canfor reporting losses and closing mills to correct the supply-demand imbalance for lumber. The longstanding Canada-US trade dispute over softwood lumber continues, with tariffs raised to 14.54% in 2024, prompting Canada to file legal challenges. Further increases are expected to be implemented in 2025. The industry is grappling with the impacts of severe wildfires that hinder mill operations and access to timber resources, further exacerbating economic difficulties. As a result, over the past five years, revenue has fallen at an estimated annualized rate of 4.0% to $18.8 billion through the end of 2025, with low growth of 1.6% forecast for the current year. Future performance will depend on the US and Canadian housing markets, which are facing challenges relating to home affordability. Tariffs from the ongoing softwood lumber dispute between the US and Canada will continue to affect industry sawmills, prompting companies to adapt by improving efficiency or relocating facilities. Market conditions are pushing major lumber players to consolidate operations, with some acquiring mills in the US to bypass tariffs. Natural threats like wildfires and wood-boring insects pose ongoing risks to log supplies essential for sawmill operations. Over the next five years, industry revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 1.7% to $20.5 billion through the end of 2030.