Today, globally, women of childbearing age have an average of approximately 2.2 children over the course of their lifetime. In pre-industrial times, most women could expect to have somewhere between five and ten live births throughout their lifetime; however, the demographic transition then sees fertility rates fall significantly. Looking ahead, it is believed that the global fertility rate will fall below replacement level in the 2050s, which will eventually lead to population decline when life expectancy plateaus. Recent decades Between the 1950s and 1970s, the global fertility rate was roughly five children per woman - this was partly due to the post-WWII baby boom in many countries, on top of already-high rates in less-developed countries. The drop around 1960 can be attributed to China's "Great Leap Forward", where famine and disease in the world's most populous country saw the global fertility rate drop by roughly 0.5 children per woman. Between the 1970s and today, fertility rates fell consistently, although the rate of decline noticeably slowed as the baby boomer generation then began having their own children. Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility, i.e. the number of children born per woman that a population needs for long-term stability, is approximately 2.1 children per woman. Populations may continue to grow naturally despite below-replacement level fertility, due to reduced mortality and increased life expectancy, however, these will plateau with time and then population decline will occur. It is believed that the global fertility rate will drop below replacement level in the mid-2050s, although improvements in healthcare and living standards will see population growth continue into the 2080s when the global population will then start falling.

In 2023, the average total fertility rate in Taiwan ranged at around **** children per woman over lifetime. This extremely low figure is not expected to increase over the coming years. Taiwan’s demographic development Taiwan was once known for its strong population growth. After the retreat of the Republican government to the island in 1949, the population grew quickly. However, during Taiwan’s rapid economic development thereafter, the fertility rate dropped substantially. This drastic change occurred in most East Asian countries as well, of which many have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world today. As a result, populations in many East Asian regions are already shrinking or are expected to do so soon.In Taiwan, population decreased in 2020 for the first time, and the declining trend is expected to accelerate in the years ahead. At the same time, life expectancy has increased considerably, and Taiwan’s population is now aging at fast pace, posing a huge challenge to the island’s social security net. Addressing challenges of an aging society Most east Asian countries could, until recently, afford generous public pensions and health care systems, but now need to adjust to their changing reality. Besides providing incentives to raise children, the Taiwanese government also tries to attract more immigrants by lowering requirements for permanent residency. As both strategies have been met with limited success, the focus remains on reforming the pension system. This is being done mainly by raising the retirement age, promoting late-age employment, increasing pension contributions, and lowering pension payments.

The past century of increases in human population and resource consumption has produced some undesirable effects, ranging from environmental degradation to climate change to political unrest. We are accustomed to seeing these dependent variables charted with time on the x-axis. But this study presents metrics of biodiversity, consumption, and pollution and their extremely strong correlations when charted against human population size. Then we suggest that a more rapid yet non-coercive lowering of global Total Fertility Rates to 1.75 by 2050, and holding there, will produce many benefits for current and future generations of our own species and for nature. Among these benefits are reduced CO2 emissions, habitat recovery, protection of wild species, and reduced conflict over scarce resources.

Students will explore the patterns of world population in terms of total population, arithmetic density, total fertility rate, natural increase rate, and infant mortality rate. The activity uses a web-based map.Learning outcomes:Students will be able to identify and explain the spatial patterns and distribution of world population based on total population, density, total fertility rate, natural increase rate, and infant mortality rate.Other New Zealand GeoInquiry instructional material freely available at https://arcg.is/1GPDXe

In 2021, the total fertility rate, in the United Kingdom fell to 1.53 births per woman, compared with 1.56 in 2020. The fertility rate in the most recent year is the lowest in this provided time period, and far below the peak of 2.65 births per woman recorded in 1964.

Series Name: Total fertility ratePublication Year: 2018 The Statistical Yearbook provides in a single volume a comprehensive compilation of internationally available statistics on social and economic conditions and activities, at world, regional and national levels, for an appropriate historical period. It is prepared by the Statistics Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, of the United Nations Secretariat.Table: Population growth and indicators of fertility and mortalityTopic: Population and migrationFor more information on the compilation methodology of this dataset, see https://unstats.un.org/unsd/publications/statistical-yearbook/

Students will explore the patterns of world population in terms of total population, arithmetic density, total fertility rate, natural increase rate, and infant mortality rate. The activity uses a web-based map.Learning outcomes:Students will be able to identify and explain the spatial patterns and distribution of world population based on total population, density, total fertility rate, natural increase rate, and infant mortality rate.Other New Zealand GeoInquiry instructional material freely available at https://arcg.is/1GPDXe

A flexible model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates: Sub-saharan Africa case study

The fertility rates are consistent with the United Nation World Population Prospects (UN WPP) 2022 fertility rates.

The Bayesian model developed to reconstruct the fertility rates using Demographic and Health Surveys and the UN WPP is published in a working paper.

Abstract

The future world population growth and size will be largely determined by the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. Correct estimates of education-specific fertility rates are crucial for projecting the future population. Yet, consistent cross-country comparable estimates of education-specific fertility for sub-Saharan African countries are still lacking. We propose a flexible Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates by using the patchy Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data and the United Nations’ (UN) reliable estimates of total fertility rates (TFR). Our model produces estimates that match the UN TFR to different extents (in other words, estimates of varying levels of consistency with the UN). We present three model specifications: consistent but not identical with the UN, fully-consistent (nearly identical) with the UN, and consistent with the DHS. Further, we provide a full time series of education-specific TFR estimates covering five-year periods between 1980 and 2014 for 36 sub-Saharan African countries. The results show that the DHS-consistent estimates are usually higher than the UN-fully-consistent ones. The differences between the three model estimates vary substantially in size across countries, yielding 1980-2014 fertility trends that differ from each other mostly in level only but in some cases also in direction.

Funding

The data set are part of the BayesEdu Project at Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) funded from the “Innovation Fund Research, Science and Society” by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW).

We provide education-specific total fertility rates (ESTFR) from three model specifications: (1) estimated TFR consistent but not identical with the TFR estimated by the UN (“Main model (UN-consistent)”; (2) estimated TFR fully consistent (nearly identical) with the TFR estimated by the UN ( “UN-fully -consistent”, and (3) estimated TFR consistent only with the TFR estimated by the DHS ( “DHS-consistent”).

For education- and age-specific fertility rates that are UN-fully consistent, please see https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8182960

Variables

Country: Country names

Education: Four education levels, No Education, Primary Education, Secondary Education and Higher Education.

Year: Five-year periods between 1980 and 2015.

ESTFR: Median education-specific total fertility rate estimate

sd: Standard deviation

Upp50: 50% Upper Credible Interval

Lwr50: 50% Lower Credible Interval

Upp80: 80% Upper Credible Interval

Lwr80: 80% Lower Credible Interval

Model: Three model specifications as explained above and in the working paper. DHS-consistent, Main model (UN-consistent) and UN-fully consistent.

List of countries:

Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cote D'Ivoire, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Among all regions, women in Israeli settlements in the West Bank, recorded the highest total fertility rate in Israel, with **** live births per woman on average. Other regions with high fertility rates were the Jerusalem district and the Southern district. In contrast, the Haifa recorded the lowest fertility rate, at only **** births per woman.

Following a spike to 2.5 children per woman in the mid-1960s (during the second wave of the post-WWII baby boom), Germany's fertility rate then fell sharply to around 1.5 children per woman in the 1970s, and it has fluctuated between 1.2 and 1.6 children per woman ever since. Germany's fertility rate has been below the natural replacement level of roughly 2.1 children per woman since 1970, meaning that long-term natural population growth is unsustainable. In fact, Germany has experienced a natural population decline in every year since 1972, and its population has only grown or been sustained at its current level through high net immigration rates.Find more statistics on other topics about Germany with key insights such as crude birth rate, life expectancy of women at birth, and total life expectancy at birth.

The data refers to Projected population characteristics(Population,Sex ratio,Population density,Population by broad age-group,Proportion (percent),Median age,Dependency Ratio,Population growth rate,Crude Birth rate(CBR),Crude Death rate (CDR),Infant Mortality Rate (IMR),Under-5 mortality rate,Total Fertility Rate (TFR),Life expectancy of males,Life expectancy of females) of India.

Abstract

The 1997 the Kyrgyz Republic Demographic and Health Survey (KRDHS) is a nationally representative survey of 3,848 women age 15-49. Fieldwork was conducted from August to November 1997. The KRDHS was sponsored by the Ministry of Health (MOH), and was funded by the United States Agency for International Development. The Research Institute of Obstetrics and Pediatrics implemented the survey with technical assistance from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) program.

The purpose of the KRDHS was to provide data to the MOH on factors which determine the health status of women and children such as fertility, contraception, induced abortion, maternal care, infant mortality, nutritional status, and anemia.

Some statistics presented in this report are currently available to the MOH from other sources. For example, the MOH collects and regularly publishes information on fertility, contraception, induced abortion and infant mortality. However, the survey presents information on these indices in a manner which is not currently available, i.e., by population subgroups such as those defined by age, marital duration, education, and ethnicity. Additionally, the survey provides statistics on some issues not previously available in the Kyrgyz Republic: for example, breastfeeding practices and anemia status of women and children. When considered together, existing MOH data and the KRDHS data provide a more complete picture of the health conditions in the Kyrgyz Republic than was previously available.

A secondary objective of the survey was to enhance the capabilities of institutions in the Kyrgyz Republic to collect, process, and analyze population and health data.

MAIN FINDINGS

FERTILITY

Fertility Rates. Survey results indicate a total fertility rate (TFR) for all of the Kyrgyz Republic of 3.4 children per woman. Fertility levels differ for different population groups. The TFR for women living in urban areas (2.3 children per woman) is substantially lower than for women living in rural areas (3.9). The TFR for Kyrgyz women (3.6 children per woman) is higher than for women of Russian ethnicity (1.5) but lower than Uzbek women (4.2). Among the regions of the Kyrgyz Republic, the TFR is lowest in Bishkek City (1.7 children per woman), and the highest in the East Region (4.3), and intermediate in the North and South Regions (3.1 and3.9, respectively).

Time Trends. The KRDHS data show that fertility has declined in the Kyrgyz Republic in recent years. The decline in fertility from 5-9 to 0-4 years prior to the survey increases with age, from an 8 percent decline among 20-24 year olds to a 38 percent decline among 35-39 year olds. The declining trend in fertility can be seen by comparing the completed family size of women near the end of their childbearing years with the current TFR. Completed family size among women 40-49 is 4.6 children which is more than one child greater than the current TFR (3.4).

Birth Intervals. Overall, 30 percent of births in the Kyrgyz Republic take place within 24 months of the previous birth. The median birth interval is 31.9 months.

Age at Onset of Childbearing. The median age at which women in the Kyrgyz Republic begin childbearing has been holding steady over the past two decades at approximately 21.6 years. Most women have their first birth while in their early twenties, although about 20 percent of women give birth before age 20.

Nearly half of married women in the Kyrgyz Republic (45 percent) do not want to have more children. Additional one-quarter of women (26 percent) want to delay their next birth by at least two years. These are the women who are potentially in need of some method of family planning.

FAMILY PLANNING

Ever Use. Among currently married women, 83 percent report having used a method of contraception at some time. The women most likely to have ever used a method of contraception are those age 30-44 (among both currently married and all women).

Current Use. Overall, among currently married women, 60 percent report that they are currently using a contraceptive method. About half (49 percent) are using a modern method of contraception and another 11 percent are using a traditional method. The IUD is by far the most commonly used method; 38 percent of currently married women are using the IUD. Other modern methods of contraception account for only a small amount of use among currently married women: pills (2 percent), condoms (6 percent), and injectables and female sterilization (1 and 2 percent, respectively). Thus, the practice of family planning in the Kyrgyz Republic places high reliance on a single method, the IUD.

Source of Methods. The vast majority of women obtain their contraceptives through the public sector (97 percent): 35 percent from a government hospital, and 36 percent from a women counseling center. The source of supply of the method depends on the method being used. For example, most women using IUDs obtain them at women counseling centers (42 percent) or hospitals (39 percent). Government pharmacies supply 46 percent of pill users and 75 percent of condom users. Pill users also obtain supplies from women counseling centers or (33 percent).

Fertility Preferences. A majority of women in the Kyrgyz Republic (45 percent) indicated that they desire no more children. By age 25-29, 20 percent want no more children, and by age 30-34, nearly half (46 percent) want no more children. Thus, many women come to the preference to stop childbearing at relatively young ages-when they have 20 or more potential years of childbearing ahead of them. For some of these women, the most appropriate method of contraception may be a long-acting method such as female sterilization. However, there is a deficiency of use of this method in the Kyrgyz Republic. In the interests of providing a broad range of safe and effective methods, information about and access to sterilization should be increased so that individual women can make informed decisions about using this method.

INDUCED ABORTION

Abortion Rates. From the KRDHS data, the total abortion rate (TAR)-the number of abortions a woman will have in her lifetime based on the currently prevailing abortion rates-was calculated. For the Kyrgyz Republic, the TAR for the period from mid-1994 to mid-1997 is 1.6 abortions per woman. The TAR for the Kyrgyz Republic is lower than recent estimates of the TAR for other areas of the former Soviet Union such as Kazakhstan (1.8), and Yekaterinburg and Perm in Russia (2.3 and 2.8, respectively), but higher than for Uzbekistan (0.7).

The TAR is higher in urban areas (2.1 abortions per woman) than in rural areas (1.3). The TAR in Bishkek City is 2.0 which is two times higher than in other regions of the Kyrgyz Republic. Additionally the TAR is substantially lower among ethnic Kyrgyz women (1.3) than among women of Uzbek and Russian ethnicities (1.9 and 2.2 percent, respectively).

INFANT MORTALITY

In the KRDHS, infant mortality data were collected based on the international definition of a live birth which, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy, is a birth that breathes or shows any sign of life (United Nations, 1992). Mortality Rates. For the five-year period before the survey (i.e., approximately mid-1992 to mid1997), infant mortality in the Kyrgyz Republic is estimated at 61 infant deaths per 1,000 births. The estimates of neonatal and postneonatal mortality are 32 and 30 per 1,000.

The MOH publishes infant mortality rates annually but the definition of a live birth used by the MOH differs from that used in the survey. As is the case in most of the republics of the former Soviet Union, a pregnancy that terminates at less than 28 weeks of gestation is considered premature and is classified as a late miscarriage even if signs of life are present at the time of delivery. Thus, some events classified as late miscarriages in the MOH system would be classified as live births and infant deaths according to the definitions used in the KRDHS.

Infant mortality rates based on the MOH data for the years 1983 through 1996 show a persistent declining trend throughout the period, starting at about 40 per 1,000 in the early 1980s and declining to 26 per 1,000 in 1996. This time trend is similar to that displayed by the rates estimated from the KRDHS. Thus, the estimates from both the KRDHS and the Ministry document a substantial decline in infant mortality; 25 percent over the period from 1982-87 to 1992-97 according to the KRDHS and 28 percent over the period from 1983-87 to 1993-96 according to the MOH estimates. This is strong evidence of improvements in infant survivorship in recent years in the Kyrgyz Republic.

It should be noted that the rates from the survey are much higher than the MOH rates. For example, the KRDHS estimate of 61 per 1,000 for the period 1992-97 is twice the MOH estimate of 29 per 1,000 for 1993-96. Certainly, one factor leading to this difference are the differences in the definitions of a live birth and infant death in the KRDHS survey and in the MOH protocols. A thorough assessment of the difference between the two estimates would need to take into consideration the sampling variability of the survey's estimate. However, given the magnitude of the difference, it is likely that it arises from a combination of definitional and methodological differences between the survey and MOH registration system.

MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH

The Kyrgyz Republic has a well-developed health system with an extensive infrastructure of facilities that provide maternal care services. This system includes special delivery hospitals, the obstetrics and gynecology departments of general hospitals, women counseling centers, and doctor's assistant/midwife posts (FAPs). There is an extensive network of FAPs throughout the rural areas.

Delivery. Virtually all births in the

Almost 80% of the 4 billion projected increase in world population by 2100 comes from 37 Mid-African Countries (MACs), caused mostly by slow declines in Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Historically, TFR has declined in response to increases in wellbeing associated with economic development. We show that, when Infant Survival Rate (ISR, a proxy for wellbeing) has increased, MAC fertility has declined at the same rate, in relation to ISR, as it did in 61 comparable Other Developing Countries (ODCs) whose average fertility is close to replacement level. If MAC ISR were to increase at the historic rate of these ODCs, and TFR declined correspondingly, then the projected world population in 2100 would be decreasing and 1.1 billion lower than currently projected. Such rates of ISR increase, and TFR decrease, are quite feasible and have occurred in comparable ODCs. Increased efforts to improve the wellbeing of poor MAC populations are key.

In 2024, the total population of Taiwan increased to approximately 23.4 million people. The significant drop in 2021 and 2022 was mainly due to people leaving the island during the coronavirus pandemic, while the natural growth rate was also slightly negative. The return of many people in 2023 led to a growth in population. According to national statistics and projections, population numbers entered a general declining path in 2020. Taiwan's demographic development Taiwan experienced rapid population growth in the 1950s and 60s, but alongside with economic development, growth rates decreased significantly. Falling birth figures have also been attributed to Taiwan’s family planning policy, which was aimed at keeping population growth at check. This led to a situation on the island where overall population density was very high and still growing, while the total fertility rate dropped quickly and eventually reached extremely low levels compared internationally. In the 21st century, the challenges of a quickly aging society became more and more apparent and the government initiated family friendly and birth promoting policies. However, fertility still kept on decreasing and reached a historical low in 2010 at 0.9 births per woman on average, and only in recent years has the number of births increased slightly. Implications of an aging society Today's Taiwan, like many East Asian societies, faces the challenges of a rapidly aging population. While the share of the population aged 65 and older accounted to around 18 percent in 2023, it is projected to reach 43 percent in 2060. The old-age dependency ratio, which denotes the relation of people of 65 years and above to the working-age population, is expected to reach around 87 percent in those years. This puts heavy pressure on the working people and the economy as a whole. However, compared to mainland China, which is in a very much comparable demographic situation, Taiwan enjoys the advantage of a relatively wealthy society, which helps to curb the negative economic effects of an aging population.

Israel's total fertility rate has remained relatively stable over the past decade, with a slight decrease to **** births per woman in 2023. This high fertility rate, coupled with an increasing life expectancy, contributes to Israel's unique demographic situation among developed nations. The country's population growth is expected to continue, driven by these factors and a birth rate that outpaces the death rate. Diverse population and immigration impact Israel's demographic landscape is shaped by its diverse population and history of immigration. As of the end of 2024, the number of permanent residents in the country reached some *** million. Of them, some ** percent were Jews and ** percent Arabs. In the decade following the fall of the Soviet Union, about *********** Jewish immigrants arrived in the country. This wave of immigration has contributed to the country's cultural diversity and economic high-tech boom. Economic growth and declining unemployment As Israel's population continues to expand, its economy is also projected to grow. Gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to increase by over a quarter between 2024 and 2029. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level in recent years, hitting **** percent in 2023. This combination of population growth, economic expansion, and low unemployment suggests a robust economic outlook.

The total fertility rate in Turkey decreased to 1.51 children per woman compared to the previous year. This marks the lowest fertility rate during the observed period. Notably, the fertility rate is continuously decreasing over the last years.The total fertility rate is the average number of children that a woman of childbearing age (generally considered 15 to 44 years) is expected to have throughout her reproductive years. Unlike birth rates, which are based on the actual number of live births in a given population, fertility rates are estimates (similar to life expectancy) that apply to a hypothetical woman, as they assume that current patterns in age-specific fertility will remain constant throughout her reproductive years.Find more statistics on other topics about Turkey with key insights such as crude birth rate, total life expectancy at birth, and death rate.

Series Name: Total fertility ratePublication Year: 2018The Statistical Yearbook provides in a single volume a comprehensive compilation of internationally available statistics on social and economic conditions and activities, at world, regional and national levels, for an appropriate historical period. It is prepared by the Statistics Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, of the United Nations Secretariat.Table: Population growth and indicators of fertility and mortalityTopic: Population and migrationFor more information on the compilation methodology of this dataset, see https://unstats.un.org/unsd/publications/statistical-yearbook/

Explore the patterns of world population in terms of total population, arithmetic density, total fertility rate, natural increase rate, life expectancy, and infant mortality rate. The GeoInquiry activity is available here.Educational standards addressed:APHG: II.A. Analyze the distribution patterns of human populations.APHG: II.B. Understand that populations grow and decline over time and space.This map is part of a Human Geography GeoInquiry activity. Learn more about GeoInquiries.

Students will explore the patterns of world population in terms of total population, arithmetic density, total fertility rate, natural increase rate, and infant mortality rate. The activity uses a web-based map and is tied to the AP Human Geography benchmarks. Learning outcomes:Students will be able to identify and explain the spatial patterns and distribution of world population based on total population, density, total fertility rate, natural increase rate, and infant mortality rate.Find more advanced human geography geoinquiries and explore all geoinquiries at http://www.esri.com/geoinquiries

BackgroundKawasaki disease (KD) is a common cause of acquired paediatric heart disease in developed countries. KD was first identified in the 1960s in Japan, and has been steadily increasing since it was first reported. The aetiology of KD has not been defined, but is assumed to be infection-related. The present study sought to identify the factor(s) that mediate the geographical variation and chronological increase of KD in Japan.Methods and FindingsBased upon data reported between 1979 and 2010 from all 47 prefectures in Japan, the incidence and mean patient age at the onset of KD were estimated. Using spatial and time-series analyses, incidence and mean age were regressed against climatic/socioeconomic variables. Both incidence and mean age of KD were inversely correlated with the total fertility rate (TFR; i.e., the number of children that would be born to one woman). The extrapolation of a time-series regressive model suggested that KD emerged in the 1960s because of a dramatic decrease in TFR in the 1940s through the 1950s.ConclusionsMean patient age is an inverse surrogate for the hazard of contracting the aetiologic agent. Therefore, the observed negative correlation between mean patient age and TFR suggests that a higher TFR is associated with KD transmission. This relationship may be because a higher TFR facilitates sibling-to-sibling transmission. Additionally, the observed inverse correlation between incidence and TFR implies a paradoxical “negative” correlation between the incidence and the hazard of contracting the aetiologic agent. It was hypothesized that a decreasing TFR resulted in a reduced hazard of contracting the agent for KD, thereby increasing KD incidence.