The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by October 29, 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic—both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S.—showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by August 2025, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2024, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. In January 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented another cut, setting the rate at 4.33 percent, which remained unchanged until September 2025, when another cut set the rate at 4.22 percent. In October 2025, the rate was further reduced to 4.09 percent. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate—from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April—mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

A primary purpose of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was to prevent banking panics by establishing the Federal Reserve System to function as a lender of last resort. Other types of financial crisis require a similar response, however, and the Federal Reserve has repeatedly used its capacity to generate liquidity to insulate the economy from crises in financial markets. The Fed's response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, is the most recent example of this. This paper reviews the Fed's responses to crises and potential crises in financial markets: the stock market crash of 1987, the Russian default, and the September 11th attacks.

The Federal Reserve implements its monetary policy by using open market operations in United States government securities to target the federal funds rate. A substantial decline in the stock of United States Treasury debt could interfere with the conduct of monetary policy, possibly forcing the Fed to rely more heavily on discount window lending or to conduct open market transactions in other types of securities. Either choice would cause the implementation of monetary policy to resemble the methods used by the Fed before World War II. This paper describes two things: (1) how the Fed implemented monetary policy before the war and (2) the conflicts that arose within the Fed over the allocation of private-sector credit when discount window loans and Fed purchases of private securities were a substantial component of Federal Reserve credit. Those conflicts help explain the Fed's failure to respond vigorously to the Great Depression. The experience suggests that a renewed reliance on the discount window or on open market operations in securities other than those issued by the United States Treasury could hamper the conduct of monetary policy if it leads to increased pressure on the Fed to affect the allocation of credit.

In September 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In September 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 17 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.3 percent in September 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 8 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

A central bank is the term used to describe the authority responsible for policies that affect a country’s supply of money and credit. More specifically, a central bank uses its tools of monetary policy—open market operations, discount window lending, changes in reserve requirements—to affect short-term interest rates and the monetary base (currency held by the public plus bank reserves) and to achieve important policy goals.

The Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) is normally a triennial cross-sectional survey of U.S. families. The survey data include information on families' balance sheets, pensions, income, and demographic characteristics.

Jerome Powell FED Press Conference Transcripts Dataset

Dataset Overview

The most comprehensive collection of Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve press conference transcripts (2018-2025) - perfect for NLP, sentiment analysis, and financial market research!

This dataset contains clean, structured transcripts from every FOMC press conference where Jerome Powell spoke as Federal Reserve Chair, with automated name tagging and text cleaning for immediate use in machine learning projects, data analysis or research.

ML Project ideas:

• LLM fine tuning - Create a Jerome Powell LLM, and ask it what will the FED do
• Sentiment Analysis - How Powell's tone affects markets
• Topic Modeling - Key themes in Fed communications
• Named Entity Recognition - Financial figure identification
• Time Series Analysis - Policy evolution over time
• Predictive Modeling - Market reaction forecasting

📊 Dataset Statistics - Data Points: 50,000+ text segments - Time Coverage: 6+ years of Fed communications - Market Events: 3 major economic cycles - Policy Changes: 15+ interest rate decisions - Market Impact: $100+ billion in daily volatility

🔥 Community ideas:

1. "Powell Sentiment Index"

• Real-time Fed sentiment scoring
• Market Impact: Predict market reactions to Fed communications
• Social Sharing: Daily sentiment updates on Twitter/LinkedIn #### 2. "Fed Policy Predictor"
• Predict Fed decisions before they happen
• Accuracy: Historical prediction validation
• Engagement: Weekly prediction contests #### 3. "Powell Word Cloud Generator" ☁️
• Visual representation of Fed priorities
• Interactive: Real-time word cloud updates
• Shareable: Perfect for social media #### 4. "Market Reaction Analyzer" Quantify Powell's market impact
• Real-time: Live analysis during press conferences
• Trading: Identify profitable trading opportunities

Author: Jonathan Paserman

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and September 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By September 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

Loretta J. Mester-President and Chief Executive Officer-Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland- The Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference, Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy Challenges – Lessons Learned and Going Forward, Tokyo, Japan, May 28, 2024, 12:55 AM EDT

Over the past ten years, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has repeatedly emphasized that future policy is data dependent. In this Economic Commentary , we investigate how financial markets expected future interest rates to change with the release of new data on inflation and labor market conditions. We find that the surprises in economic indicators have a stronger effect on the 2-year Treasury yield than on the expected federal funds rate to be set in the next FOMC meeting. This implies that markets understand that under the data-dependent approach, policy decisions do not heavily rely on the most recent data or short-run fluctuations, but, rather, rely more on the persistent trend of the economy. In addition, we observe that expected future interest rates have become more sensitive to surprises in inflation after 2022, suggesting that the FOMC’s determination to reduce inflation has been well-understood by the markets.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

During the financial crisis of 2007-10, the Federal Reserve (Fed) served as a global lender of last resort by establishing currency swap agreements with 14 foreign central banks, including several in East Asia. These agreements were controversial internationally because the Fed selectively established swaps with some central banks and not others, raising concerns about access to the Fed’s dollar-creating facilities. Within the U.S. Congress, the swaps were controversial because they appeared to be a new and unauthorized form of foreign aid. I analyze both the Fed’s decision to establish swap lines with certain central banks and the congressional response to these arrangements. I find that the Fed was more likely to establish swaps with central banks whose jurisdictions were important to U.S. commercial banks, suggesting that the Fed discriminated in ways that served U.S. interests. To analyze the congressional reaction to the foreign currency swaps, I examine voting in the House of Representatives on a legislative proposal known as “Audit the Fed” that would end the Fed's confidentiality about the foreign central banks it supports and reduce its political independence more broadly. I find that campaign contributions from commercial banks to representatives are negatively correlated with voting “yes” on this proposal. I also find that right-wing representatives are much more likely to support this proposal than left-wing representatives, which suggests that new congressional coalitions are forming on the role of the Fed in the (global) economy.

Twenty years ago policymakers were optimistic that monetary and fiscal policies were capable of maintaining both full employment and price stability. With longer lags involved in deciding on and implementing tax and budget policies, fiscal policy became a more complicated process, less able to respond quickly to adverse shifts in employment and output. Consequently, the responsibility for stabilizing the economy fell more and more to the nation's central bank, and monetary policy objectives alternated between fighting inflation and fighting unemployment. At the peak of the business cycle, monetary policy was aimed primarily at subduing inflation; at the trough of the business cycle, monetary policy was directed at spurring business activity. By switching objectives between inflation and unemployment, both battles were lost. Experience shows that the Federal Reserve cannot, for very long, trade off a little more inflation for a little less unemployment. Indeed, our experience in the past 20 years has been the opposite, as inflation rose to higher levels in each expansion period and unemployment rose to new heights in each recession.

"This dataset, sourced from the extensive FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) database of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, represents a comprehensive series of economic data of all the releases from the start till date, providing an in-depth exploration of economic trends and indicators specific to the St. Louis region. It includes a rich collection of economic metrics, such as employment figures, inflation rates, and housing statistics. Tailored for data scientists, economists, and researchers, this dataset offers a focused lens into the economic dynamics of St. Louis

Key Features

How to Harness the Dataset's Full Potential

1. Advanced Analytics: Explore intricate economic trends and patterns, employing advanced data analytics and machine learning for precise decision-making.

2. In-Depth Research: Conduct nuanced research, including econometric modeling and policy impact analysis, to contribute to academic and policy insights.

3. Policy Optimization: Utilize the data for complex policy assessments, evaluating scenarios, and optimizing decision-making processes.

4. Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Foster collaboration between data analysts, researchers, and policymakers to address multifaceted economic challenges collectively.

5. Real-Time Surveillance: Continuously monitor dynamic economic trends, enabling proactive responses to evolving conditions from various professional perspectives.

Please upvote and show your support if you find this dataset valuable for your research or analysis. 🙌 Your feedback and contributions help make this dataset more accessible to the Kaggle community. 🚀 Thank you! 🙏

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

A monetary policy reaction function typically describes how a central bank’s policy rate responds to changes in economic fundamentals, such as inflation and labor market conditions, and other factors. We use minute-by-minute data on two-year Treasury yields to study the market-expected monetary policy reaction function from 2004 to 2024. We find that financial markets expected monetary policy to react more aggressively to inflation news during 2022–2024 than in the pre-COVID-19-pandemic period. In addition, we find that the sensitivity of the two-year Treasury yield to economic news other than core inflation and labor market conditions has decreased over time. This time-varying sensitivity to changes in economic fundamentals may reflect an actual change in the FOMC’s reaction function, or it may be associated with the fact that market participants became more attentive to inflation news after the pandemic recession period.

Treasury Liquidity Narratives Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the Global Treasury Liquidity Narratives market size was valued at $4.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $12.7 billion by 2033, expanding at a robust CAGR of 12.8% during the forecast period of 2025–2033. The primary driver propelling this remarkable growth is the increasing demand for real-time liquidity insights and advanced cash management solutions across global financial ecosystems. Organizations are under mounting pressure to optimize liquidity, comply with evolving regulatory frameworks, and mitigate financial risks, which is fueling the adoption of innovative treasury solutions. As businesses and financial institutions navigate volatile markets and digital transformation, the need for comprehensive, automated, and analytics-driven liquidity management tools is becoming more pronounced, positioning the Treasury Liquidity Narratives market for sustained expansion throughout the forecast horizon.

Regional Outlook

North America currently commands the largest share of the Treasury Liquidity Narratives market, accounting for approximately 38% of the global revenue in 2024. This dominance is attributed to the region’s mature financial infrastructure, rapid technological adoption, and stringent regulatory standards that necessitate sophisticated liquidity management solutions. Major financial hubs like New York and Toronto serve as centers of innovation, with leading banks and corporates investing heavily in automation and analytics platforms. Additionally, the presence of established solution providers, coupled with a high concentration of Fortune 500 companies, has created a fertile ground for advanced treasury systems. This market maturity is further reinforced by proactive regulatory bodies, such as the Federal Reserve and SEC, which continuously update compliance requirements, compelling organizations to prioritize robust liquidity management and reporting frameworks.

The Asia Pacific region is anticipated to be the fastest-growing market, with a forecasted CAGR of 15.6% from 2025 to 2033. This rapid ascent is driven by the digital transformation of financial services, increased cross-border transactions, and a burgeoning fintech ecosystem. Countries like China, India, Singapore, and Australia are witnessing substantial investments in cloud-based treasury solutions, as both multinational corporations and regional banks seek to enhance liquidity visibility and automate treasury operations. The rise of regional regulatory initiatives, such as the Reserve Bank of India’s push for real-time payments and China’s digital currency pilots, is further accelerating adoption. Moreover, the influx of venture capital into fintech startups and strategic partnerships between global providers and local institutions are catalyzing market growth, enabling APAC to outpace traditional markets in terms of innovation and deployment.

Emerging economies in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa represent promising but challenging frontiers for the Treasury Liquidity Narratives market. While adoption rates are rising, particularly among large corporates and progressive banks, several barriers persist, including limited digital infrastructure, skills gaps, and inconsistent regulatory frameworks. In Latin America, countries like Brazil and Mexico are leading the charge, driven by reforms in banking and government initiatives to digitize treasury operations. In the Middle East and Africa, the focus is on enhancing compliance and risk management in response to evolving international standards. However, fragmented markets and varying levels of technological maturity mean that solution providers must tailor offerings to local needs, invest in education, and navigate complex policy landscapes to unlock the full potential of these regions.

Report Scope

Graph and download economic data for Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over (LES1252881600Q) from Q1 1979 to Q2 2025 about full-time, salaries, workers, earnings, 16 years +, wages, median, real, employment, and USA.