Food inflation remains higher than measures of overall inflation, and labor markets have been tight. We find that processed food products have driven recent increases in grocery prices, and we argue that labor market tightness affects the prices of these labor-intensive products in particular through increases in production and distribution costs. Food inflation at grocery stores could remain elevated if price pressures on the supply side persist and demand for food at home remains strong.

Rent inflation responds more to labor market conditions compared with other components of inflation. We attribute this link between labor market tightness and rent inflation to greater demand for rental units afforded by job gains and wage growth. Although online measures of asking rents currently suggest official measures of rent inflation will decline, we caution that rent inflation is likely to remain above pre-pandemic levels so long as the labor market remains tight.

A record 4.4 million employees quit their jobs in September 2021, and many businesses are struggling to fill open positions. Although at a national level the labor market appears historically tight, we show that labor market tightness differs widely across states. Most states have tighter labor markets than before the pandemic, but others have struggled to recover.

The unemployment rate is the primary indicator of the tightness of the labor market and in the Fourth District, the labor market tightness varies.

Workers displaced during the 2020 pandemic recession experienced almost no earnings loss, on average, compared to workers who lost jobs in the recessions of 1990-1991, 2001, and 2008-2009, and were more likely to regain employment, according to a new Economic Commentary from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

U.S. labor demand—measured by job openings or vacancies—has started to cool but is still elevated compared with pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, labor supply—measured by the labor force participation rate—remains below pre-pandemic levels. This weakness in the labor force participation rate may persist, as it reflects lower participation among older individuals. Accordingly, the imbalance between demand and supply in the labor market may continue until labor demand cools further.

US job vacancies increased during the pandemic, but they’ve since declined. Economists are exploring whether this is a response to rising interest rates or to other labor market factors.

Graph and download economic data for Job Openings: Total Nonfarm (JTSJOL) from Dec 2000 to Aug 2025 about job openings, vacancy, nonfarm, and USA.

This table provides information about labor supply and demand conditions in occupational labor markets in North Carolina’s eight regions (“Prosperity Zones”) and the statewide total.

A “Career Cluster” is a broad group of occupations. Each Career Cluster contains occupations that require similar knowledge and skills. A “Career Pathway” is a specific group of occupations falling under a broader “Career Cluster”. Specific occupations falling within a given Career Cluster, Career Pathway, and education level can be found on the Star Jobs table.

These data can be used to compare occupational labor markets within a given region. A low supply/demand rate indicates a “tight” labor market—with few jobseekers per job opening—while a high supply/demand rate indicates a “slack” labor market. A tight labor market presents opportunities for jobseekers, but can lead to challenges for employers looking to hire.

These data can also be used to assess the alignment between the labor market and our state’s talent pipeline. “Labor needed” is the amount of additional labor supply needed to attain the statewide or regional supply/demand rate. “Completers” is the average number of individuals completing higher education programs at the University of North Carolina system or the North Carolina Community College System.

Data are updated on an annual basis to accommodate methodology improvements and revisions to the underlying data inputs.

Technical details about methodology can be found here.

Data sources:

Labor supply: LEAD analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey, 2014-2016 average)

Labor demand: LEAD analysis of data from the Conference Board^© and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2014-2016 average)

Completers: LEAD analysis of data from the N.C. Common Follow-up System (2010-2015 average)

As of July 2025, there were approximately 13.03 million unemployed people in the European Union, of which 10.81 million were in countries in the Euro Area. During the provided time period, unemployment in the EU peaked in April 2013, when it reached 24.3 million people, with the most recent month having the fewest number of unemployed people.

In the three months to October 2025, there were approximately 723,000 job vacancies in the UK, down from 722,000 in September 2025, and the period with the fewest number of job vacancies since April 2021. The number of job vacancies in the United Kingdom reached a record high of 1.3 million in the three months to May 2022, with the number of vacancies steadily falling since then. During the provided time period, the number of job vacancies fell to its lowest levels in the months leading to June 2020, at just 328,000, at the height of COVID-19 restrictions. Tight labor market beginning to loosen After weathering the economic storm of COVID-19, the UK labor market was reasonably healthy between 2021 and 2024. An economic trend dubbed "The Great Resignation" saw the UK record 446,000 resignations in the second quarter of 2022, with many likely encouraged by the strong labor market at the time. Since that point, however, the UK unemployment rate has steadily crept up, reaching a post-pandemic high of five percent in September 2025. Which industries are experiencing staff shortages? The percentage of businesses reporting a staff shortage in the UK reached 15.7 percent in September 2022, before falling to just 7.5 percent as of October 2025, another indication of a loosening labor market. According to data from that month, approximately 18 percent of businesses in the education sector had a shortage of staff, the highest of any industry. Education was followed by accommodation and food services, with 13.6 percent of businesses in this sector reporting a staff shortage.

A tight labor market tends to raise wages and lower unemployment, but an overly tight labor market can cause inflation. Labor market momentum, as measured by the Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI), can signal whether the current level of activity in labor markets is inflationary.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has experienced sharply rising then falling inflation alongside persistent labor market imbalances. This Economic Commentary interprets these macroeconomic dynamics, as represented by the Beveridge and Phillips curves, through the lens of a macroeconomic model. It uses the structure of the model to rationalize the debate about whether the US economy can expect a hard or soft landing. The model is surprised by the resiliency of the labor market as the US economy experienced disinflation. We suggest that the model’s limited ability to capture this resiliency is a feature of using a linear model to forecast the historically unprecedented movements seen after the pandemic among inflation, unemployment, and vacancy rates. We explain how, by adjusting the model to mimic congestion in a tight labor market and greater wage and price flexibility in a high-inflation environment, as during the post-pandemic period, the model can then capture what has been a path consistent with a soft landing.

Revenue in the Temporary Employment Placement Agencies industry is anticipated to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.1% over the five years through 2025 to €270.9 billion. The COVID-19 outbreak meant key employers of temporary workers in the hospitality and tourist sector shut their doors and companies froze hiring due to economic uncertainty, dealing a sizeable blow to revenue at the beginning of the five-year period. As the economy reopened in 2021, companies quickly resumed hiring, leading to record vacancies, especially within the service sector, driving up revenue for recruitment agencies. The widespread adoption of remote and flexible work arrangements has altered demand patterns, with clients seeking specialised talent for hybrid or short-term digital projects. Labour shortages in healthcare, logistics and IT industries have further fuelled demand for temporary staffing solutions. At the same time, agencies have faced heightened competition from online staffing platforms and digital marketplaces, driving investment in technology and automation to enhance candidate matching and streamline operations. Despite this, recruitment agencies have seen their profit fall over the past five years due to economic uncertainty, inflation and rising business expenses increasing operating costs. An increasingly tight labour market encourages employers to rely on temporary employment placement agencies to compete. Several European countries rank highly regarding temporary workers and have a large short-term job market. For example, in 2023, the Netherlands and Portugal had more than 15% of employed people under temporary contracts, according to Eurostat. Revenue is expected to swell by 4% in 2025 as a tight labour market across Europe encourages employers to rely on temporary-employment placement agencies. Revenue is slated to climb at a compound annual rate of 8.7% over the five years through 2030 to €410.3 billion. While the labour market is likely to remain tight in many countries due to skill mismatches, employers will keep turning to placement agencies for their databases to track and identify the right candidates. Companies will lean on temporary hires as the economic outlook remains unclear. However, threats to demand loom. The automation of more routine jobs will be a threat to some long-standing temporary jobs. Across Europe, countries that traditionally rely on a strong network of short-term workers are implementing policies that may disrupt or expand services – Spain already introduced reforms in late 2021 to increase permanent positions and remove temporary contracts. Temporary employment placement agencies will increasingly deploy AI procedures to increase efficiency, including AI chatbots and CV screening; companies that don’t follow suit risk being left behind in the age of AI evolution.

The Federal Open Market Committee has been quickly raising the federal funds rate to lower inflation. However, services inflation remains high, supported by a tight labor market with high wage growth. Recent readings in the LMCI momentum indicator suggest monetary policy tightening is beginning to weigh on labor markets, which may eventually lead to lower services inflation and lower inflation overall.

We estimate trend unemployment rates for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, states that span parts of the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System. Our estimated unemployment rate trend for the District as a whole stood at 5.7 percent in 2020:Q1 compared to a 4.7 percent observed unemployment rate within the District, implying a tight labor market by historical standards.

London had the highest unemployment rate among regions of the United Kingdom in the third quarter of 2025 at *** percent, while for the UK as a whole, the unemployment rate was **** percent. Six other regions also had an unemployment rate higher than the national average, while Northern Ireland had the lowest unemployment rate in this time period, at *** percent. Labor market recovery after COVID-19 After reaching historically low levels of unemployment in 2019, there was a noticeable spike in the UK unemployment rate in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. After peaking at ****percent in late 2020, the unemployment rate declined throughout 2021 and 2022. High levels of job vacancies, resignations, and staff shortages in 2022, were all indicative of a very tight labor market that year, but all these measures have started to point in the direction of a slightly looser labor market. UK's regional economic divide While the North of England has some of the country’s largest cities, the sheer size and economic power of London is much larger than the UK's other urban agglomerations. Partly, due to the size of London, the United Kingdom is one of Europe’s most centralized counties, and there is a clear divide between the economic prospects of north and south England. In 2022, for example, the gross domestic product per head in London was ****** British pounds, far higher than the UK average of *******pounds, and significantly larger than North East England, the region with the lowest GDP per head at *******pounds.

In the third quarter of 2025, approximately 210,000 job resignations took place in the United Kingdom, compared with 263,000 in the previous quarter. The number of resignations in Q2 2022 was the highest number taking place in a single quarter during this provided time period, reaching 446,000. In most years, there is a noticeable trend of resignations peaking in the fourth quarter of the year and being at their lowest in the first quarter. There is also a significant fall in people resigning from their jobs after the 2008 financial crisis and after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The Great Resignation The high number of resignations that took place after COVID-19 hit also occurred in the United States. Throughout 2022, approximately 50 million American workers quit their jobs in a trend dubbed 'The Great Resignation' In both the UK and U.S. the trend corresponded with a very tight labor market. After emerging from the initial COVID-19 lockdowns, UK unemployment declined from 2021 onwards, falling to a low of just 3.6 percent in August 2022. There were also numerous job vacancies, which peaked in May 2024 at 1.3 million, though by the end of 2024, both indicators have returned to more typical levels. Labor market concerns for 2025 One of the main concerns of the UK government regarding the labor market is economic inactivity, in particular the reason for this inactivity, Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of people on long-term sick-leave, has increased substantially. At the start of 2020, there were approximately 2.12 million people economically inactive for this reason, with this increasing to almost 2.84 million by the end of 2023, with this declining only slightly to 2.77 million by the end of 2024. It is unclear if there is one overriding factor driving this surge, with possible causes including the prevalence of Long COVID, or the ongoing NHS crisis.

Employment Agencies Market Size And Forecast

Employment Agencies Market size was valued at USD 18.06 Billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 48.53 Billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 13.2 % during the forecast period 2024-2031.

Global Employment Agencies Market Drivers

The Employment Agencies Market is influenced by a variety of market drivers, which can significantly impact its growth and development. Some of the key drivers include:

Labor Market Dynamics: The overall health of the labor market, including employment rates, job vacancies, and talent shortages, drives demand for employment agencies. In tight labor markets, companies may rely more on agencies to fill positions quickly. Economic Conditions: Economic growth usually leads to increased hiring, encouraging businesses to use employment agencies for efficient recruitment processes. Conversely, during economic downturns, agencies may experience reduced demand.

Global Employment Agencies Market Restraints

The Employment Agencies Market, while offering various opportunities, also faces several market restraints that can impact its growth and effectiveness. Here are some of the key constraints:

Regulatory Challenges: Employment agencies must navigate a complex web of regulations, labor laws, and compliance requirements that can vary significantly by region. Noncompliance can lead to legal issues and fines. Economic Fluctuations: Economic downturns can lead to reduced hiring by companies, which directly affects the demand for employment agencies. In times of recession, businesses may rely more on internal hiring processes or cut back on staffing altogether.