Food inflation remains higher than measures of overall inflation, and labor markets have been tight. We find that processed food products have driven recent increases in grocery prices, and we argue that labor market tightness affects the prices of these labor-intensive products in particular through increases in production and distribution costs. Food inflation at grocery stores could remain elevated if price pressures on the supply side persist and demand for food at home remains strong.

Though labor market statistics are often reported and discussed at the national level, conditions can vary quite a bit across individual states. We explore differences in these conditions before and after the Great Recession using a ratio of the number of unemployed workers to job vacancies. We show that the intensity of the adverse effects of the recession and the strength of the recovery varied geographically at all points in the process. We also demonstrate that wage growth is delayed until the ratio of unemployed workers to job vacancies returns to prerecession levels.

Rent inflation responds more to labor market conditions compared with other components of inflation. We attribute this link between labor market tightness and rent inflation to greater demand for rental units afforded by job gains and wage growth. Although online measures of asking rents currently suggest official measures of rent inflation will decline, we caution that rent inflation is likely to remain above pre-pandemic levels so long as the labor market remains tight.

A record 4.4 million employees quit their jobs in September 2021, and many businesses are struggling to fill open positions. Although at a national level the labor market appears historically tight, we show that labor market tightness differs widely across states. Most states have tighter labor markets than before the pandemic, but others have struggled to recover.

The unemployment rate is the primary indicator of the tightness of the labor market and in the Fourth District, the labor market tightness varies.

U.S. labor demand—measured by job openings or vacancies—has started to cool but is still elevated compared with pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, labor supply—measured by the labor force participation rate—remains below pre-pandemic levels. This weakness in the labor force participation rate may persist, as it reflects lower participation among older individuals. Accordingly, the imbalance between demand and supply in the labor market may continue until labor demand cools further.

US job vacancies increased during the pandemic, but they’ve since declined. Economists are exploring whether this is a response to rising interest rates or to other labor market factors.

The Federal Open Market Committee has been quickly raising the federal funds rate to lower inflation. However, services inflation remains high, supported by a tight labor market with high wage growth. Recent readings in the LMCI momentum indicator suggest monetary policy tightening is beginning to weigh on labor markets, which may eventually lead to lower services inflation and lower inflation overall.

In this project, rich administrative data on search and recruitment from a low-wage online job portal are used to study the labor market impacts of COVID-19 in India. The data from the job portal includes information on vacancies and job seekers across 2019 and 2020. It covers all users that either posted a vacancy or applied to a job on the portal across the two years. The following datasets are available: Aggregate data State level data Each dataset reports the following details: Vacancies: Number of vacancies; number of full-time vacancies; average minimum salary for full-time vacancies; number of full-time vacancies above minimum salary offer of Rs. 15,000; average minimum experience for full-time vacancies Job seekers: Number of job seekers; Number of job seekers by gender, age and education

Graph and download economic data for Unemployment Rate in Salt Lake City, UT (MSA) (SALT649UR) from Jan 1990 to Aug 2025 about Salt Lake City, UT, unemployment, rate, and USA.

Workers displaced during the 2020 pandemic recession experienced almost no earnings loss, on average, compared to workers who lost jobs in the recessions of 1990-1991, 2001, and 2008-2009, and were more likely to regain employment, according to a new Economic Commentary from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

This dataset provides values for LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS INDEX reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

Shift-Swap Platforms for DC Labor Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the Global Shift-Swap Platforms for DC Labor market size was valued at $1.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $4.8 billion by 2033, expanding at a robust CAGR of 16.5% during 2024–2033. This exceptional growth trajectory is primarily driven by the escalating need for operational agility and workforce flexibility in distribution centers (DCs), as organizations strive to optimize labor deployment and minimize downtime in increasingly dynamic supply chain environments. The proliferation of omnichannel retail, e-commerce expansion, and the growing complexity of logistics networks are compelling DC operators and their partners to adopt advanced shift-swap solutions to ensure seamless labor management, cost efficiency, and improved employee satisfaction.

Regional Outlook

North America currently holds the largest share of the Shift-Swap Platforms for DC Labor market, accounting for approximately 38% of the global market value in 2024. The region’s dominance is underpinned by its mature logistics infrastructure, widespread digital transformation initiatives, and the early adoption of workforce management technologies across key industries such as e-commerce, retail, and third-party logistics. The United States, in particular, has demonstrated a strong commitment to labor optimization driven by stringent labor regulations, high wage costs, and a persistent shortage of skilled warehouse workers. Major market players in North America continue to invest heavily in AI-driven scheduling tools, mobile-first shift-swap platforms, and integration with enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems, further consolidating the region’s leadership position. Proactive government policies supporting digital adoption in logistics and the presence of leading technology vendors also contribute to the region’s sustained market dominance.

Asia Pacific is emerging as the fastest-growing region in the Shift-Swap Platforms for DC Labor market, with a projected CAGR of 19.3% during the forecast period. This rapid growth is attributed to the explosive expansion of e-commerce, the proliferation of mega-warehouses, and the increasing pressure on supply chains in countries such as China, India, and Southeast Asian economies. The region’s vast labor force, coupled with rising labor costs and tightening labor regulations, is driving organizations to seek innovative solutions for workforce management and shift optimization. Investments from global technology firms, the rise of local SaaS providers, and government-led initiatives to modernize logistics infrastructure are accelerating the adoption of shift-swap platforms. Furthermore, the increasing penetration of smartphones and internet connectivity in rural and peri-urban areas is enabling more inclusive and flexible labor management practices across the region’s diverse distribution center landscape.

In emerging economies across Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, the adoption of Shift-Swap Platforms for DC Labor is gaining momentum, albeit at a relatively modest pace compared to developed markets. These regions face unique challenges, including limited digital infrastructure, fragmented logistics ecosystems, and a lack of standardized labor practices. However, the growing presence of multinational retailers and logistics firms, coupled with government incentives to modernize supply chains, is fostering localized demand for flexible labor management solutions. Policy reforms aimed at improving labor rights, enhancing workforce mobility, and promoting digital transformation in logistics are gradually overcoming adoption barriers. Nonetheless, the need for affordable, scalable, and user-friendly shift-swap platforms remains critical to unlocking the full potential of these emerging markets.

Report Scope

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has experienced sharply rising then falling inflation alongside persistent labor market imbalances. This Economic Commentary interprets these macroeconomic dynamics, as represented by the Beveridge and Phillips curves, through the lens of a macroeconomic model. It uses the structure of the model to rationalize the debate about whether the US economy can expect a hard or soft landing. The model is surprised by the resiliency of the labor market as the US economy experienced disinflation. We suggest that the model’s limited ability to capture this resiliency is a feature of using a linear model to forecast the historically unprecedented movements seen after the pandemic among inflation, unemployment, and vacancy rates. We explain how, by adjusting the model to mimic congestion in a tight labor market and greater wage and price flexibility in a high-inflation environment, as during the post-pandemic period, the model can then capture what has been a path consistent with a soft landing.

Conventional wisdom holds that a central bank should tighten monetary policy after a surprise decline in labor supply to offset the inflationary effects of the decline. However, this policy prescription comes from models of monetary policy that abstract from labor force participation. We examine the policy implications of worker entry into and exit from the labor force. We find that cyclical changes in labor force participation call for a less restrictive policy response to a decline in labor supply. The less restrictive policy response is appropriate because policy tightening reduces the labor force and thus raises wage growth. The optimal policy response dampens the reduction in the labor force and brings about a period of higher inflation.

A tight labor market tends to raise wages and lower unemployment, but an overly tight labor market can cause inflation. Labor market momentum, as measured by the Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI), can signal whether the current level of activity in labor markets is inflationary.

Graph and download economic data for Job Openings: Total Nonfarm (JTSJOL) from Dec 2000 to Aug 2025 about job openings, vacancy, nonfarm, and USA.

This table provides information about labor supply and demand conditions in occupational labor markets in North Carolina’s eight regions (“Prosperity Zones”) and the statewide total.

A “Career Cluster” is a broad group of occupations. Each Career Cluster contains occupations that require similar knowledge and skills. A “Career Pathway” is a specific group of occupations falling under a broader “Career Cluster”. Specific occupations falling within a given Career Cluster, Career Pathway, and education level can be found on the Star Jobs table.

These data can be used to compare occupational labor markets within a given region. A low supply/demand rate indicates a “tight” labor market—with few jobseekers per job opening—while a high supply/demand rate indicates a “slack” labor market. A tight labor market presents opportunities for jobseekers, but can lead to challenges for employers looking to hire.

These data can also be used to assess the alignment between the labor market and our state’s talent pipeline. “Labor needed” is the amount of additional labor supply needed to attain the statewide or regional supply/demand rate. “Completers” is the average number of individuals completing higher education programs at the University of North Carolina system or the North Carolina Community College System.

Data are updated on an annual basis to accommodate methodology improvements and revisions to the underlying data inputs.

Technical details about methodology can be found here.

Data sources:

Labor supply: LEAD analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey, 2014-2016 average)

Labor demand: LEAD analysis of data from the Conference Board^© and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2014-2016 average)

Completers: LEAD analysis of data from the N.C. Common Follow-up System (2010-2015 average)

In the three months to October 2025, there were approximately 723,000 job vacancies in the UK, down from 722,000 in September 2025, and the period with the fewest number of job vacancies since April 2021. The number of job vacancies in the United Kingdom reached a record high of 1.3 million in the three months to May 2022, with the number of vacancies steadily falling since then. During the provided time period, the number of job vacancies fell to its lowest levels in the months leading to June 2020, at just 328,000, at the height of COVID-19 restrictions. Tight labor market beginning to loosen After weathering the economic storm of COVID-19, the UK labor market was reasonably healthy between 2021 and 2024. An economic trend dubbed "The Great Resignation" saw the UK record 446,000 resignations in the second quarter of 2022, with many likely encouraged by the strong labor market at the time. Since that point, however, the UK unemployment rate has steadily crept up, reaching a post-pandemic high of five percent in September 2025. Which industries are experiencing staff shortages? The percentage of businesses reporting a staff shortage in the UK reached 15.7 percent in September 2022, before falling to just 7.5 percent as of October 2025, another indication of a loosening labor market. According to data from that month, approximately 18 percent of businesses in the education sector had a shortage of staff, the highest of any industry. Education was followed by accommodation and food services, with 13.6 percent of businesses in this sector reporting a staff shortage.