In 2024, Tokyo Prefecture recorded a **** total fertility rate (TFR). The total fertility rate in the prefecture showed a steady decrease in recent years and fell below one for the first time in 2023.

In 2024, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Okinawa Prefecture amounted to ****, the highest among the 47 prefectures of Japan. By comparison, Tokyo Prefecture recorded the lowest fertility rate of ****. That year, the overall total fertility rate in the country stood at ****.

The fertility rate of a country is the average number of children that women from that country will have throughout their reproductive years. From 1800 until 1865, Japan's fertility rate grew quite gradually, from 4.1 children per woman, to 4.8. From this point the fertility rate drops to 3.6 over the next ten years, as Japan became more industrialized. Towards the end of the nineteenth century, Japan's fertility rate grew again, and reached it's highest recorded point in the early 1920s, where it was 5.4 children per woman. Since this point it has been gradually decreasing until now, although it did experience slight increases after the Second World War, and in the early 1970s. In recent decades Japan's population has aged extensively, and today, Japan has the second oldest population and second highest life expectancy in the world (after Monaco). In contrast to this, Japan has a very low birth rate, and it's fertility rate is expected to fall below 1.4 children per woman in 2020.

In 2023, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Okinawa Prefecture amounted to 1.6, the highest among the 47 prefectures of Japan. By comparison, Tokyo Prefecture recorded the lowest fertility rate of 0.99. That year, the overall total fertility rate in the country stood at 1.2.

In 2024, ******* live births were recorded in Japan, continuing the downward trend of the last decade. In the same year, the number of deaths of newborns amounted to ***.

Japan Condominiums & Apartments Market size was valued at USD 71.9 Billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 108.5 Billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.6% from 2026-2032.

Japan Condominiums & Apartments Market Drivers

Tokyo and Major Cities: Japan's population is heavily concentrated in major urban centers, particularly Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya. This urbanization trend drives demand for condominiums and apartments due to limited land availability.

Migration from Rural Areas: Continued migration from rural areas to urban centers for employment and educational opportunities further fuels demand for urban housing.

Smaller Household Sizes: Japan's aging population and declining birth rates contribute to smaller household sizes, increasing demand for compact apartments and condominiums.

Elderly Housing Needs: The growing elderly population requires accessible and convenient housing options, driving demand for condominiums with amenities and services catering to seniors.

With approximately ** million inhabitants, Tokyo Prefecture was the largest prefecture based on population size in Japan as of 2023. The smallest prefecture in this regard was Tottori Prefecture, which in the same year counted about ******* residents. Rural depopulation Like many industrial economies, Japan is facing the problem of depopulating rural areas. While the birth rate continues to decline, many young people decide to migrate from small towns and villages to large cities like Tokyo or Osaka for higher education and employment. The population of Tokyo Prefecture has shown substantial growth over the past decades and consists largely of working age citizens. Smaller communities are trying to counteract the depopulation process with initiatives meant to invite younger workers and tourists back. Migration to Japan Japan is often described as a very homogenous society, with a low share of foreign residents. Despite the declining birthrate and many businesses experiencing a labor shortage, companies have been hesitant to employ foreign workers, in part due to the strict immigration laws. The Japanese Government has tried to ease immigration restrictions and encourage foreigners to work in Japan. The largest share of foreign workers in Japan, however, is residing in the county with a permanent residence or as the family member of a Japanese national.

In 1800, the population of Japan was just over 30 million, a figure which would grow by just two million in the first half of the 19th century. However, with the fall of the Tokugawa shogunate and the restoration of the emperor in the Meiji Restoration of 1868, Japan would begin transforming from an isolated feudal island, to a modernized empire built on Western models. The Meiji period would see a rapid rise in the population of Japan, as industrialization and advancements in healthcare lead to a significant reduction in child mortality rates, while the creation overseas colonies would lead to a strong economic boom. However, this growth would slow beginning in 1937, as Japan entered a prolonged war with the Republic of China, which later grew into a major theater of the Second World War. The war was eventually brought to Japan's home front, with the escalation of Allied air raids on Japanese urban centers from 1944 onwards (Tokyo was the most-bombed city of the Second World War). By the war's end in 1945 and the subsequent occupation of the island by the Allied military, Japan had suffered over two and a half million military fatalities, and over one million civilian deaths.

The population figures of Japan were quick to recover, as the post-war “economic miracle” would see an unprecedented expansion of the Japanese economy, and would lead to the country becoming one of the first fully industrialized nations in East Asia. As living standards rose, the population of Japan would increase from 77 million in 1945, to over 127 million by the end of the century. However, growth would begin to slow in the late 1980s, as birth rates and migration rates fell, and Japan eventually grew to have one of the oldest populations in the world. The population would peak in 2008 at just over 128 million, but has consistently fallen each year since then, as the fertility rate of the country remains below replacement level (despite government initiatives to counter this) and the country's immigrant population remains relatively stable. The population of Japan is expected to continue its decline in the coming years, and in 2020, it is estimated that approximately 126 million people inhabit the island country.

Over the last decade, Japan’s population has aged more and more, to the point where more than a quarter of Japanese were 65 years and older in 2022. Population growth has stopped and even reversed, since it’s been in the red for several years now.

It’s getting old

With almost 30 percent of its population being elderly inhabitants, Japan is considered the “oldest” country in the world today. Japan boasts a high life expectancy, in fact, the Japanese tend to live longer than the average human worldwide. The increase of the aging population is accompanied by a decrease of the total population caused by a sinking birth rate. Japan’s fertility rate has been below the replacement rate for many decades now, mostly due to economic uncertainty and thus a decreasing number of marriages.

Are the Japanese invincible?

There is no real mystery surrounding the ripe old age of so many Japanese. Their high average age is very likely due to high healthcare standards, nutrition, and an overall high standard of living – all of which could be adopted by other industrial nations as well. But with high age comes less capacity, and Japan’s future enemy might not be an early death, but rather a struggling social network.

In the past decade, Japan’s degree of urbanization has leveled off at around 92.04 percent. This means that less than 10 percent of Japan’s population of 126 million inhabitants do not live in an urban setting. Japan is well above the degree of urbanization worldwide, which is 55 percent. Japan is also known for its high population density: In 2017, it amounted to an eye-watering 347.78 inhabitants per square kilometer - however, it is not even among the top twenty countries with the highest population density worldwide. That ranking is lead by Monaco, followed by China, and Singapore. Japan’s aging population The main demographic challenge that Japan currently faces is an aging population, as the number of inhabitants over 65 years old is an increasing percentage of the population. As of 2018, Japan is the country with the largest percentage of total population over 65 years, and life expectancy at birth there is about 84 years. Simultaneously, the birth rate in Japan is declining, resulting in negative population growth in recent years. One method Japan is using to address these demographic shifts is by investing in automated work processes; it's one of the top countries interested in collaborative robots.

In Japan, the population sex ratio has seen slight changes over the past decades. In 2021, the number of men was around **** for every 100 women, constituting a decrease from **** in 1950.

What is the sex ratio? The population sex ratio is determined by the sex ratio at birth, different mortality rates between men and women, as well as losses and gains through migration. In the absence of alteration, the sex ratio in human populations is quite constant, with only minor deviations. While the sex ratio at birth is usually *** to ***, the population sex ratio, which refers to the total number of males for every 100 females, is often below 100. The reason for the shift mostly lies in differing lifestyles and physical constitutions of men and women. In general, women tend to be more resistant to disease throughout life, while men tend to engage in higher risk behavior or violence.

Influences and consequences
The sex ratio at birth and its possible determinants such as gestation environment, climate change, chemical pollution or socio-economic factors have long been subject to scientific research. Recently the impact of natural disasters, like the nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011, was presumed to influence the sex ratio at birth. The adult gender ratio has long been recognized as a key population-level determinant of behavior. However, there are many different or competing theories in existing literature about the social impacts of gender imbalance on topics such as violence, family stability, reproduction etc.

In the fiscal year 2022, investments in public roads for construction and maintenance amounted to approximately **** trillion Japanese yen, up from **** trillion yen in the previous fiscal year. Construction expenditures exceeded maintenance expenses in that year. According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), the Ministry’s yearly expenditures on public infrastructure will increase by roughly 40 percent until around fiscal 2044 compared to 2018 to counter infrastructure deterioration.
What causes infrastructure deterioration? The most relevant factors causing distress for materials used in road construction, e.g., asphalt, concrete, steel, are the building quality, temperature and humidity, load, as well as accidents and other damages. Each of those stress factors is relevant for Japan.Inspections have shown that rapidly built structures are prone to damage in particular. Furthermore, as Japan has pronounced seasonal weather, the fluctuation of temperature and humidity may have a stronger effect. Moreover, water and other chemical substances in the environment trigger corrosion of steel, often affecting the soundness of bridges, for example. Even if structures are well-built and structurally sound, the load takes its toll on the integrity over time. The term fatigue refers to structural damage caused by a cyclical load that is well below static strength. In other words, even if roads are designed for a certain number of vehicles of a certain weight, they will eventually wear out. For this reason, Japan declared some roads as essential logistical roads (which include all arterial roads), where trailers are allowed to transport ** ft international marine shipping containers (up to ** tons) without a permit for special vehicles otherwise required.Finally, accidents and other damages may impair the functionality of the infrastructure. These hazards are noteworthy for a country like Japan, where earthquakes, tsunamis, and landslides happen from time to time. Although proactive design can mitigate natural disasters, their hardly predictable forces usually have an impact to some degree. Naturally, the age of the structure exacerbates these stress factors. Japan: The country of rapidly aging infrastructure Maintaining an integral part of Japan’s road infrastructure will become a challenge. The Japanese road infrastructure has experienced a fast expansion since the 1950s, paralleling the economy’s rapid-growth period (and partly fueling it). By March 2033, 63 percent of road bridges and 42 percent of tunnels are expected to be 50 years old or more. Cyclical road maintenance inspections hint at the possible extent of infrastructure deterioration if no countermeasures are taken.To judge the maintenance level of public roads, the government moreover calculates a maintenance rate. It takes not only into consideration the structural qualities required by legal standards but also the actual degree of congestion. The public sector aims to mitigate congestion, since it costs time and fatigues the road (and the people). The road sections with the highest congestion in Japan are typically those on urban expressways of Tokyo and Osaka.Against the backdrop of infrastructure deterioration, the Japanese population is aging rapidly and shrinking. While the economy and life expectancy have continued to grow since the 1950s, birth rates have sharply fallen since then, resulting in the current-day demographic. This demographic structure will impact rural depopulating areas in particular, where there is a shortage of civil engineers already today.