As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Track real-time 10 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

View market daily updates and historical trends for 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread. from United States. Source: Department of the Treasury. Track economi…

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.04% on September 17, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.30 points, though it remains 0.33 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.69% on September 17, 2025, marking a 0.04 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.25 points, though it remains 0.66 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

Track real-time 1 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

Track real-time 3 Month Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

View market daily updates and historical trends for 10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread. from United States. Source: Department of the Treasury. Track e…

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) from 1977-02-15 to 2025-09-12 about 30-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Sep 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Track real-time 20 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.50% on September 17, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.27 points and is 0.13 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2025-09-12 about 2-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Track real-time 2 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to Jul 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on US 7 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.83% on September 18, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.21 points, though it remains 0.23 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 7 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.

View a 10-year yield estimated from the average yields of a variety of Treasury securities with different maturities derived from the Treasury yield curve.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS20) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-09-12 about 20-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on United Kingdom 10Y Bond Yield eased to 4.63% on September 17, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.11 points, though it remains 0.78 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. UK 10 Year Gilt Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on September of 2025.