Graph and download economic data for Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Categorical Index: Trade policy (EPUTRADE) from Jan 1985 to May 2025 about uncertainty, World, trade, and indexes.

Key information about China Trade Policy Uncertainty Index

• China Trade Policy Uncertainty Index was reported at 343.008 Index in Feb 2025.
• This records an increase from the previous number of 281.900 Index for Jan 2025.
• China Trade Policy Uncertainty Index data is updated monthly, averaging 90.815 Index from Jan 2000 to Feb 2025, with 302 observations.
• The data reached an all-time high of 1,425.160 Index in Jun 2019 and a record low of 0.000 Index in Jul 2011.
• China Trade Policy Uncertainty Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Economic Policy Uncertainty.
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Economic Policy Uncertainty Index – Table: Trade Policy Uncertainty Index: By Country.

Graph and download economic data for Trade Policy Uncertainty Index: Mainland Papers for China (CHNMAINLANDTPU) from Jan 2000 to Jun 2025 about uncertainty, China, trade, and indexes.

The EPU Categorical Data include a range of sub-indexes based solely on news data. These are derived using results from the Access World News database of over 2,000 US newspapers.

For further explanation, please see the source page on Categorical EPU data (https://www.policyuncertainty.com/categorical_epu.html).

The Chinese Mainland TPU (https://www.policyuncertainty.com/china_monthly.html) newspaper-based indices of policy uncertainty in China is based on the working paper "Economic Policy Uncertainty in China Since 1949: The View from Mainland Newspapers." by Steven J. Davis, Dingqian Liu and Xuguang S. Sheng. The index quantifies uncertainty-related concepts from October 1949 onwards using two mainland Chinese newspapers: the Renmin Daily and the Guangming Daily.

United States - Economic Policy Uncertainty : Categorical : Trade policy was 7983.00274 Index in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Economic Policy Uncertainty : Categorical : Trade policy reached a record high of 7983.00274 in April of 2025 and a record low of 6.46728 in July of 2023. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Economic Policy Uncertainty : Categorical : Trade policy - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

We examine how trade and policy uncertainty affect shipping freight rates, using a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model. Trade uncertainty has a strong effect on shipping costs, even though the effects become insignificant within a year. On the other hand, policy uncertainty has a slightly smaller initial effect but tends to have longer-lasting effects on shipping costs. Trade uncertainty tends to benefit European stocks, perhaps as investors may believe that consumers will shift to local companies, with the impact on US stocks also being (mildly) positive, despite the (lagged) deterioration in economic activity. Trade uncertainty tends to have a longer-lasting impact on GDP than policy uncertainty, given then known merits of comparative advantage, while the effect of policy uncertainty is higher in the European markets compared to the US ones.

Economic Policy Uncertainty for United States was 256.81000 Index in July of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Economic Policy Uncertainty for United States reached a record high of 1026.38000 in January of 2024 and a record low of 3.32000 in August of 2015. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Economic Policy Uncertainty for United States - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Code and replication data for "Trade Policy Uncertainty & Resource Misallocation"

Replication data for peer-reviewed article published in European Economic Review. Paper published online April 7, 2024. When citing this dataset, please also cite the associated article. A sample Publication Citation is provided below.

This short paper provides U.S. state-level evidence regarding the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the labor market. We show that a higher exposure to trade policy uncertainty generates a contraction in total hours worked at the state level. The extensive margins of labor is the primary margin of employment adjustment. State-level employment is more strongly impacted by trade policy uncertainty in goods-producing industries, and more particularly in the durable goods industry. States which are more specialized in goods industries, when they face higher uncertainty, tends to postpone hiring by more, which explains the drop in total employment.

The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) index was at its highest in May 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic brought global economic uncertainty. The index was also **** after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Moreover, the index rose sharply in November 2024 after Donald Trump was re-elected as President of the United States. Trump promised to impose trade tariffs against a range of countries, and did so against Canada, Mexico, and China in February 2024. The GEPU index is constructed by measuring how often the leading newspapers mention economic policy uncertainty in their articles.

Key information about United States Categorical Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: United States

• United States Categorical Economic Policy Uncertainty Index was reported at 313.268 Index in Feb 2025.
• This records an increase from the previous number of 236.696 Index for Jan 2025.
• US Categorical Economic Policy Uncertainty Index data is updated monthly, averaging 93.847 Index from Jan 1985 to Feb 2025, with 482 observations.
• The data reached an all-time high of 503.012 Index in Apr 2020 and a record low of 37.266 Index in Jul 2007.
• US Categorical Economic Policy Uncertainty Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Economic Policy Uncertainty.
• The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Economic Policy Uncertainty Index – Table: Categorical Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: By Country.

The Categorical Data include a range of sub-indexes based solely on news data. These are derived using results from the Access World News database of over 2,000 US newspapers. Each categorical series is multiplicatively normalized to have a mean of 100 from 1985-2010.

Graph and download economic data for Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Trade Policy (EMVTRADEPOLEMV) from Jan 1985 to Jun 2025 about volatility, uncertainty, equity, trade, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for United States (USEPUINDXD) from 1985-01-01 to 2025-07-21 about uncertainty, academic data, indexes, and USA.

In a dynamic model with sunk export costs, a firm's export investment is lower under trade policy uncertainty, and credible preferential trade agreements (PTAs) increase trade even if current tariffs are low. Exploring Portugal's accession to the European Community as a policy uncertainty shock we find that the trade reform accounted for a large fraction of Portuguese exporting firms' entry and sales; the accession removed uncertainty about future EC trade policies; and this uncertainty channel accounted for a large fraction of the predicted growth. Our approach can be applied to other PTAs and sources of policy uncertainty. (JEL D22, F12, F14, F15, G31, L11)

Key information about 中国 Trade Policy Uncertainty Index

• 中国 Trade Policy Uncertainty Index was reported at 343.008指数 in Feb 2025.
• This records an increase from the previous number of 281.900指数 for Jan 2025.
• 中国 Trade Policy Uncertainty Index data is updated 月, averaging 90.815指数 from Jan 2000 to 02-01-2025, with 302 observations.
• The data reached an all-time high of 1,425.160指数 in 06-01-2019 and a record low of 0.000指数 in 07-01-2011.
• 中国 Trade Policy Uncertainty Index data remains active status in CEIC and is Economic Policy Uncertainty.
• The data is categorized under 世界趋势数据库’s 经济政策不确定性指数 – 表：贸易政策不确定性指数：按地区分类.

Here is a concise and professional Zenodo dataset description based on your paper, suitable for use as the metadata summary:

Title:
Regime-Contingent Uncertainty Pricing: Strategic Risk, Liquidity, and Political Shocks

Authors:
Scott Brown (University of Puerto Rico, scott.brown@upr.edu)

Description:
This dataset accompanies the study "Regime-Contingent Uncertainty Pricing: Strategic Risk, Liquidity, and Political Shocks," which develops a theory of regime-dependent pricing of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in U.S. equity markets. Using monthly data from 2009 to 2025, the analysis identifies nonlinear shifts in the EPU-return relationship during two major political-economic shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2025 U.S.–China Trade War. The study demonstrates that EPU effects on asset prices are not time-invariant but depend on macro-regime context, investor behavior, and liquidity conditions.

The repository includes:

• Monthly return data for SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

• U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) data

• Python scripts for data processing, OLS estimation, and Markov-switching modeling

• Figures and tables illustrating regime dynamics

• A complete README with replication instructions

Key Contributions:

• Demonstrates that financial market responses to EPU invert during structural crises (e.g., COVID-19) and revert during politically driven uncertainty (e.g., Trade War)

• Advances dynamic capabilities and institutional theory by modeling uncertainty sensitivity as regime-contingent

• Introduces the concept of "reactivated uncertainty sensitivity," emphasizing the return of classical risk pricing under renewed political stress

Keywords:
Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), regime switching, COVID-19, U.S.–China Trade War, Markov switching model, strategic foresight, uncertainty pricing, institutional theory

License:
CC BY 4.0 – Openly available for reuse and replication

Citation:
Brown, S. (2025). Regime-Contingent Uncertainty Pricing: Strategic Risk, Liquidity, and Political Shocks [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15254459

United States - Equity Market-related Economic Uncertainty was 238.62000 Index in June of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Equity Market-related Economic Uncertainty reached a record high of 3023.89000 in October of 1987 and a record low of 4.80000 in May of 2010. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Equity Market-related Economic Uncertainty - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

United States - Economic Policy Uncertainty : Categorical : Monetary policy was 444.37323 Index in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Economic Policy Uncertainty : Categorical : Monetary policy reached a record high of 444.37323 in March of 2025 and a record low of 16.57451 in September of 1997. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Economic Policy Uncertainty : Categorical : Monetary policy - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Trade (EMVMACROTRADE) from Jan 1985 to Jun 2025 about volatility, uncertainty, equity, trade, and USA.