United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 0.96% in August of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in March of 2020 and a record low of 0.00 in November of 1967. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

United States - Economic Policy Uncertainty : Categorical : Sovereign debt, currency crises was 10.46960 Index in August of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Economic Policy Uncertainty : Categorical : Sovereign debt, currency crises reached a record high of 1492.83476 in February of 1998 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1985. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Economic Policy Uncertainty : Categorical : Sovereign debt, currency crises - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index was 11.70000 Percentage Points in January of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index reached a record high of 100.00000 in April of 2020 and a record low of 0.00000 in July of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on December of 2025.

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1855. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on December of 2025.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in September of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1947 and a record low of 0.00000 in October of 1949. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

United States - Sahm Rule Recession Indicator was 0.13000 Percentage Points in August of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Sahm Rule Recession Indicator reached a record high of 9.43000 in June of 2020 and a record low of -0.40000 in September of 2021. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Sahm Rule Recession Indicator - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on December of 2025.

United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Financial Crises was 1.02513 Index in October of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Financial Crises reached a record high of 24.60097 in October of 2008 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1985. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Financial Crises - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough was 1.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on December of 2025.

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in December of 1854. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in July of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator reached a record high of 1.00000 in April of 1969 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1968. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Hong Kong expanded 0.70 percent in the third quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in September of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1947 and a record low of 0.00000 in November of 1949. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

How do crises affect trade policy? We reconcile starkly diverging accounts in the literature by showing that economic adversity generates endogenous incentives not only for protection, but also for liberalization. We first develop formally the mechanisms by which two features of shocks---intensity and duration---influence the resources and political strategies of distressed firms. Our central insight is that policy adjustments to resuscitate afflicted industries typically generate "knock-on" effects on the profitability and political maneuverings of other firms in the economy. We incorporate these countervailing pressures in our analysis of trade policy competition. In the wake of crises, protection initially increases when impacted firms lobby for assistance, but then decreases as industries run low on resources to expend on lobbying and as firms in other industries mobilize to counter-lobby. We test our theoretical predictions using sub-national and cross-national data and present real-world illustrations to highlight the mechanisms driving our results.

OECD based Recession Indicators for Russian Federation from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for Russian Federation from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1995 and a record low of 0.00000 in November of 1996. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for Russian Federation from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany stagnated 0 percent in the third quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

OECD based Recession Indicators for NAFTA Area from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for NAFTA Area from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in April of 1947 and a record low of 0.00000 in November of 1949. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for NAFTA Area from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on October of 2025.

United States - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in May of 1962 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1960. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in May of 1962 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1960. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

OECD + Non-member Economies - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD and Non-member Economies from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in February of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD + Non-member Economies - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD and Non-member Economies from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD + Non-member Economies - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD and Non-member Economies from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in September of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1993 and a record low of 0.00000 in October of 1993. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.