In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The yield on US 3 Month Bill Bond Yield eased to 4.29% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.05 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.05 points and is 0.88 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Month Bill Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data was reported at 1.981 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.667 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.450 % from Sep 1981 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 148 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14.439 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 0.057 % in Mar 2012. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The yield on US 3 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.67% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.24 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.10 points and is 0.04 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.22% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.15 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.06 points, though it remains 0.43 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to increase by *** percentage points by 2027, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by *** percentage points. From *** percent in 2024, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach *** percent in 2027.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills 3 Months: Median: Plus 3 Qtrs data was reported at 2.439 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.040 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills 3 Months: Median: Plus 3 Qtrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.555 % from Sep 1981 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 148 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 13.350 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Mar 2012. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills 3 Months: Median: Plus 3 Qtrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills 3 Months: Median: Plus 1 Qtr data was reported at 1.991 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.695 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills 3 Months: Median: Plus 1 Qtr data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.450 % from Sep 1981 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 148 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14.500 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 0.050 % in Dec 2014. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills 3 Months: Median: Plus 1 Qtr data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.84% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.02 points and is 0.73 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF: A Safe Haven in Uncertain Times?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.70% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.27 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.10 points and is 0.19 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 2 Qtrs data was reported at 2.164 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.842 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 2 Qtrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.484 % from Sep 1981 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 148 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 13.790 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 0.075 % in Mar 2012. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 2 Qtrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The yield on India 10Y Bond Yield eased to 6.37% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.03 points, though it remains 0.53 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield eased to 2.67% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.05 points and is 0.51 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.55% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.12 points and is 0.59 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.71% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.07 points, though it remains 0.41 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

NAHB Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months data was reported at 3.080 % in 2020. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.792 % for 2019. NAHB Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months data is updated yearly, averaging 0.633 % from Dec 2013 (Median) to 2020, with 8 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.080 % in 2020 and a record low of 0.033 % in 2014. NAHB Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Association of Home Builders. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M005: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: National Association of Home Builders.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to Jun 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on Ghana 3 Month bond held steady at 23.43% on September 6, 2024. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.06 points, though it remains 2.18 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset provides - Ghana 3 Month Bill Yield- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.