In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The yield on US 3 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.67% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.24 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.10 points and is 0.04 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.22% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.15 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.06 points, though it remains 0.43 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on US 3 Month Bill Bond Yield eased to 4.29% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.05 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.05 points and is 0.88 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Month Bill Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to increase by *** percentage points by 2027, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by *** percentage points. From *** percent in 2024, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach *** percent in 2027.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.84% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.02 points and is 0.73 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.70% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.27 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.10 points and is 0.19 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to Jun 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Slovakia SK: Short-Term Interest Rate data was reported at 2.055 % in 2026. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.430 % for 2025. Slovakia SK: Short-Term Interest Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 2.430 % from Dec 1996 (Median) to 2026, with 31 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 22.382 % in 1997 and a record low of -0.549 % in 2021. Slovakia SK: Short-Term Interest Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Slovakia – Table SK.OECD.EO: Interest Rate: Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. IRS - Short-term interest rate; 3-month Treasury bill rate (yield on 13-week treasury bills)

Key information about Canada Long Term Interest Rate

• Canada Government Benchmark Bonds Yield: Month End: 10 Years was reported at 2.90 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 3.07 % pa in the previous month.
• Canada Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1993 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 9.28 % pa in Jun 1994 and a record low of 0.46 % pa in Jul 2020.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Bank of Canada.

Government Benchmark Bond are rates based on actual mid-market closing yields of selected Canada bond issues that mature approximately in the indicated term areas.


Related information about Canada Long Term Interest Rate

• In the latest reports, Canada Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: Treasury Bills Yield: 3 Months was reported at 2.82 % pa in Feb 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Overnight Target Rate) was set at 3.00 % pa in Feb 2025.
• Canada Exchange Rate against USD averaged 1.33 (USD/CAD) in Jun 2023.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield eased to 2.67% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.05 points and is 0.51 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Key information about New Zealand Long Term Interest Rate

• New Zealand Government Bond Yield: 10 Years was reported at 4.58 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 4.55 % pa in the previous month.
• New Zealand Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1985 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 18.90 % pa in Mar 1986 and a record low of 0.46 % pa in Sep 2020.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

CEIC calculates monthly Long Term Interest Rate from daily 10 year Government Bond Yield. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand provides 10 year Treasury Bond Yield. Long Term Interest Rate prior to March 1985 is sourced directly from Reserve Bank of New Zealand.. The ten-year benchmark for New Zealand Government bonds with a fixed interest coupon paid semi-annually in arrears. The bonds are redeemable at par on maturity.


Related information about New Zealand Long Term Interest Rate

• In the latest reports, New Zealand Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: New Zealand: Bank Accepted Bills: 90 Days was reported at 5.71 % pa in Jun 2023.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: New Zealand: Official Cash Rate) was set at 5.50 % pa in Jun 2023.
• New Zealand Exchange Rate against USD averaged 1.63 (USD/NZD) in Jun 2023.

The yield on India 10Y Bond Yield eased to 6.37% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.03 points, though it remains 0.53 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Key information about Australia Long Term Interest Rate

• Australia Government Bond Yield: Australian Government: 10 Years was reported at 4.42 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 4.48 % pa in the previous month.
• Australia Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jul 1969 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 16.50 % pa in Aug 1982 and a record low of 0.80 % pa in Oct 2020.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Reserve Bank of Australia.

Related information about Australia Long Term Interest Rate

• In the latest reports, Australia Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: Bank Acceptance Bills Rates: 90 days was reported at 4.12 % pa in Feb 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Cash Target Rate) was set at 4.10 % pa in Feb 2025.
• Australia Exchange Rate against USD averaged 1.49 (USD/AUD) in Jun 2023.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.55% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.12 points and is 0.59 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.39% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.08 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.03 points and is 0.39 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.71% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.07 points, though it remains 0.41 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

This dataset provides values for 3 MONTH BILL YIELD reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.