The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.38% on July 30, 2025, marking a 0.05 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.14 points and is 0.34 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.74% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points, though it remains 0.39 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield eased to 2.68% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.11 points and is 0.43 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.45% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.04 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.09 points and is 0.34 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to May 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to increase by *** percentage points by 2027, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by *** percentage points. From *** percent in 2024, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach *** percent in 2027.

The yield on Romania 10Y Bond Yield rose to 7.28% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.17 points, though it remains 0.63 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Romania 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BAA10Y) from 1986-01-02 to 2025-07-30 about Baa, spread, 10-year, maturity, bonds, Treasury, yield, corporate, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

China Bond Yield: Treasury Bond: 10 Year data was reported at 1.679 % pa in 16 May 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.680 % pa for 15 May 2025. China Bond Yield: Treasury Bond: 10 Year data is updated daily, averaging 3.254 % pa from Mar 2006 (Median) to 16 May 2025, with 4806 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.722 % pa in 20 Nov 2013 and a record low of 1.596 % pa in 06 Feb 2025. China Bond Yield: Treasury Bond: 10 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: PBC & CCDC: Treasury Bond and Other Bond Yield: Daily.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.87% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points and is 0.59 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

As of December 2024, the countries with the highest 10-year yields are the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia with 4.68, 4.38 and 4.21 percent, respectively. Of the largest economies by GDP, the United States saw the sharpest fall in absolute terms for 10-year government bond yields due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. From a level of 1.51 percent in January 2020, yields on 10-year government bonds fell to 0.65 percent by April 2020, and had further fallen to 0.53 percent by July 2020 before starting to recover towards the end of the year. Conversely, countries that went into 2020 with already low bond yields like Japan, Germany and France actually saw a small increase in March 2020 - although these already low yields mean that these small changes are significant in relative terms.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Canada (IRLTLT01CAM156N) from Jan 1955 to Jun 2025 about long-term, Canada, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

The yield on France 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.34% on August 1, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.02 points and is 0.38 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. France 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jul 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

As of December 30, 2024, ** economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of ***** percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with **** percent; and Russia with **** percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United Kingdom (IRLTLT01GBM156N) from Jan 1960 to Jun 2025 about long-term, 10-year, United Kingdom, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.56% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.16 points and is 0.52 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on India 10Y Bond Yield eased to 6.37% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.01 points, though it remains 0.54 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.