In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Access CME futures and options data for interest rate markets, including U.S. Treasuries, SOFR, Federal Funds, ESTR, and more with Databento's APIs or web portal.

Our continuous contract symbology is a notation that maps to an actual, tradable instrument on any given date. The prices returned are real, unadjusted prices. We do not create a synthetic time series by adjusting the prices to remove jumps during rollovers.

Taiwan TAIFEX: Futures: TR: Interest Rate Futures: 10 Year Government Bond data was reported at 0.000 Contract in Jun 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Contract for May 2018. Taiwan TAIFEX: Futures: TR: Interest Rate Futures: 10 Year Government Bond data is updated monthly, averaging 0.000 Contract from May 2008 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 122 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 28,187.000 Contract in May 2008 and a record low of 0.000 Contract in Jun 2018. Taiwan TAIFEX: Futures: TR: Interest Rate Futures: 10 Year Government Bond data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Taiwan Futures Exchange. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Taiwan – Table TW.Z020: Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX): Futures and Options Transaction.

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 3.73% on July 1, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.22 points and is 1.02 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

This data is mainly used to identify the common risk impact of Sino-US economic uncertainty index and Treasury bond yield on the crude oil futures market by constructing the information entropy-Garch-RNN model. The variables mainly include Sino-US economic uncertainty Index, Sino-US 10-year Treasury bond yield, the closing price of WTI crude oil futures, and Brunt. The time period is from March 1, 2006 to September 1, 2023

A Dataset contains EoD data on government bond futures. The dataset includes variables such as:

Contract Prices: Opening, closing, high, and low prices of futures contracts. Trading Volume: The number of contracts traded over time. Open Interest: The total number of outstanding futures contracts. Maturity Dates: Information on when the underlying bonds are due to mature. Settlement Prices: Final prices at contract expiration for valuation and settlement purposes. This dataset helps investors, researchers, and analysts monitor trends, model bond market behaviors, and forecast economic indicators related to UK and German government debt markets.

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In 2023, 3-Month SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) futures had the highest trading volume of all exchange-traded interest rate derivatives in 2023, with 809 million contracts traded on the CME. 10-year Treasury Notes futures followed, with 498 million contracts traded on the same exchange.

Graph and download economic data for 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T1YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-06-26 about yield curve, 1-year, spread, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to increase by *** percentage points by 2027, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by *** percentage points. From *** percent in 2024, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach *** percent in 2027.

I estimate the effects of FOMC announcements, post-FOMC press conferences, and speeches and Congressional testimony by the Fed Chair on stock prices, Treasury yields, and interest rate futures from 1988–2019. I show that for all but the very shortest-maturity interest rate futures, Fed Chair speeches are more important than FOMC announcements. My results suggest that the previous literature’s focus on FOMC announcements has ignored the most important source of variation in U.S. monetary policy.

This paper considers the effect of different dimensions of the FOMC's forward guidance on ex ante investor expectations about future changes in US Treasury yields. Options and Futures data for 2- and 10-year Treasuries is used to extract State-Price Densities of investor beliefs, and the corresponding standard deviation, skewness, and excess kurtosis of these densities are computed. Announcements about extension of the zero-lower bound in 2012-13 are found to reduce the expectations about crash risk, but increase the uncertainty about future yields for the 10-year. Policies about long-security purchases lead investors to place greater weight on no change in future yields.

We identify Treasury supply shocks using auction data, interpreting changes in futures prices around announcements as shocks to expected supply. We isolate the component of futures price variations pertaining to U.S. Treasury announcements between 1998 and 2020. We study how supply affects financial markets through local projections, using shocks as instruments. We show that increases in Treasury supply cause an upward shift of the yield curve fueled partly by a higher term premium. Stock prices decline, volatility climbs and corporate bond yields increase. The risk premium rises, the equity premium falls, inflation expectations soar and the liquidity premium decreases.

Graph and download economic data for 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T3MFF) from 1982-01-04 to 2025-06-26 about yield curve, spread, 3-month, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.