In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.48% on June 9, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0 points and is 0.01 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years: Annual data was reported at 3.742 % in 2028. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.715 % for 2027. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years: Annual data is updated yearly, averaging 3.676 % from Dec 2013 (Median) to 2028, with 16 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.954 % in 2021 and a record low of 1.841 % in 2016. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years: Annual data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M009: Treasury Securities Yields: Projection: Congressional Budget Office.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to increase by *** percentage points by 2027, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by *** percentage points. From *** percent in 2024, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach *** percent in 2027.

The yield on US 3 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.00% on June 9, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.03 points and is 0.68 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The yield on US 7 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.28% on June 9, 2025, marking a 0.04 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.03 points and is 0.20 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 7 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

This statistic shows the yield on ten-year government bonds in the Netherlands from 2011 to 2023 with a forecast for 2024 and 2025. In 2023, the long-term interest rate was at 2.8 percent. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Long term historical dataset of the daily 1 year treasury yield back to 1962. The values shown are daily data published by the Federal Reserve Board based on the average yield of a range of Treasury securities, all adjusted to the equivalent of a one-year maturity.

The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.02% on June 9, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.02 points and is 0.87 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

United States CBO Projection: Treasury Bills Yield: 10 Years data was reported at 2.822 % in Dec 2028. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.816 % for Sep 2028. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Bills Yield: 10 Years data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.744 % from Mar 2013 (Median) to Dec 2028, with 64 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.240 % in Mar 2022 and a record low of 0.020 % in Jun 2015. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Bills Yield: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M009: Treasury Securities Yields: Projection: Congressional Budget Office.

Long term dataset of the daily 5 year treasury yield back to 1962. The values shown are daily data published by the Federal Reserve Board based on the average yield of a range of Treasury securities, all adjusted to the equivalent of a five-year maturity.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data was reported at 1.981 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.667 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.450 % from Sep 1981 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 148 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14.439 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 0.057 % in Mar 2012. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.96% on June 9, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.04 points and is 0.36 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The yield on US 3 Month Bill Bond Yield eased to 4.34% on June 9, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.05 points and is 1.03 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Month Bill Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

MFCR Forecast: Treasury Bond Yield: 10 Years data was reported at 4.000 % pa in Dec 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.100 % pa for Sep 2025. MFCR Forecast: Treasury Bond Yield: 10 Years data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.265 % pa from Mar 2017 (Median) to Dec 2025, with 36 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.580 % pa in Mar 2023 and a record low of 0.770 % pa in Jun 2017. MFCR Forecast: Treasury Bond Yield: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Czech Republic – Table CZ.M009: Treasury Bond Yield: Forecast: Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic.

The yield on US 5 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.12% on June 9, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0 points, though it remains 0.37 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 5 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data was reported at 2.250 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.130 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data is updated monthly, averaging 4.620 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 16.300 % in May 1981 and a record low of 0.010 % in Dec 2011. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.36% on June 9, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.15 points, though it remains 0.15 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.