The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to increase by *** percentage points by 2027, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by *** percentage points. From *** percent in 2024, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach *** percent in 2027.

Track real-time 10 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

Graph and download economic data for 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE15US) from 1991-08-30 to 2025-11-26 about 15-year, mortgage, fixed, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Track real-time 1 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

The U.S. bank prime loan rate has undergone significant fluctuations over the past three decades, reflecting broader economic trends and monetary policy decisions. From a high of **** percent in 1990, the rate has seen periods of decline, stability, and recent increases. As of October 2025, the prime rate stood at **** percent, marking a notable rise from the historic lows seen in the early 2020s. Federal Reserve's impact on lending rates The prime rate's trajectory closely mirrors changes in the federal funds rate, which serves as a key benchmark for the U.S. financial system. In 2023, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of rate hikes, pushing the federal funds target range to ******** percent by year-end. This was followed by several rate cuts in 2024, with the target range standing at 4.25 to 4.5 percent in December 2024. The aggressive monetary tightening in 2023 was aimed at combating rising inflation, and its effects rippled through various lending rates, including the prime rate. Long-term investment outlook While short-term rates have risen, long-term investment yields have also seen changes. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, a benchmark for long-term interest rates, showed an average market yield of **** percent in the second quarter of 2024, adjusted for constant maturity and inflation. This figure represents a recovery from negative real returns seen in 2021, reflecting shifting expectations for economic growth and inflation. The evolving yield environment has implications for both borrowers and investors, influencing decisions across the financial landscape.

30 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States decreased to 6.23 percent in November 26 from 6.26 percent in the previous week. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 30 Year Mortgage Rate.

An index that can be used to gauge broad financial conditions and assess how these conditions are related to future economic growth. The index is broadly consistent with how the FRB/US model generally relates key financial variables to economic activity. The index aggregates changes in seven financial variables: the federal funds rate, the 10-year Treasury yield, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the triple-B corporate bond yield, the Dow Jones total stock market index, the Zillow house price index, and the nominal broad dollar index using weights implied by the FRB/US model and other models in use at the Federal Reserve Board. These models relate households' spending and businesses' investment decisions to changes in short- and long-term interest rates, house and equity prices, and the exchange value of the dollar, among other factors. These financial variables are weighted using impulse response coefficients (dynamic multipliers) that quantify the cumulative effects of unanticipated permanent changes in each financial variable on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the subsequent year. The resulting index is named Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G). One appealing feature of the FCI-G is that its movements can be used to measure whether financial conditions have tightened or loosened, to summarize how changes in financial conditions are associated with real GDP growth over the following year, or both.

United States US: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 3.186 % pa in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.201 % pa for 2015. United States US: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 2.868 % pa from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2016, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.793 % pa in 1981 and a record low of 0.587 % pa in 1965. United States US: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

Track real-time 5 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

Trinidad and Tobago TT: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 7.672 % pa in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 7.844 % pa for 2016. Trinidad and Tobago TT: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 6.759 % pa from Dec 1983 (Median) to 2017, with 35 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.357 % pa in 1984 and a record low of 4.240 % pa in 2005. Trinidad and Tobago TT: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Trinidad and Tobago – Table TT.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

Uruguay UY: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 3.425 % pa in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.669 % pa for 2016. Uruguay UY: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 3.421 % pa from Dec 1994 (Median) to 2017, with 18 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 62.317 % pa in 1996 and a record low of 1.007 % pa in 2011. Uruguay UY: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Uruguay – Table UY.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

Graph and download economic data for Treasury and Agency Securities: Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), All Commercial Banks (TMBACBW027NBOG) from 2009-07-01 to 2025-11-19 about mortgage-backed, agency, Treasury, securities, banks, depository institutions, and USA.

Hungary HU: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 1.454 % pa in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.355 % pa for 2016. Hungary HU: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 1.533 % pa from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2017, with 28 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10.400 % pa in 1992 and a record low of -1.350 % pa in 1990. Hungary HU: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Hungary – Table HU.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

Bolivia BO: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 7.761 % pa in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 7.735 % pa for 2016. Bolivia BO: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 9.668 % pa from Dec 1994 (Median) to 2017, with 24 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 37.682 % pa in 1994 and a record low of 5.564 % pa in 2008. Bolivia BO: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Bolivia – Table BO.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.;International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.;;

Georgia GE: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 4.186 % pa in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 8.435 % pa for 2013. Georgia GE: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 5.238 % pa from Dec 2003 (Median) to 2017, with 4 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.435 % pa in 2013 and a record low of -20.507 % pa in 2003. Georgia GE: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Georgia – Table GE.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

Egypt EG: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at -1.264 % pa in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of -0.653 % pa for 2016. Egypt EG: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 3.642 % pa from Dec 1997 (Median) to 2017, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.900 % pa in 2002 and a record low of -1.606 % pa in 2012. Egypt EG: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Egypt – Table EG.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

Ten-year government bonds in the Netherlands had a yield of *** percent in 2023, compared to **** percent in 2022. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury and Agency Securities: Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), All Commercial Banks (H8B1301NCBCQG) from Q4 2009 to Q3 2025 about mortgage-backed, agency, Treasury, securities, banks, depository institutions, and USA.

Adjustable-rate mortgages have typically been tied to either of two indexes, one based on U.S. treasuries, the other on the London interbank offered rate, or Libor. The index is used to determine a mortgage’s new interest rate when it is reset, and up until recently, the choice would have made little difference. But since 2007, the rates on which the indexes are based have diverged sharply, and borrowers with Libor-based adjustable-rate mortgages are likely to pay more than they would have had their mortgages been tied to treasuries. Moreover, the proportion of Libor-based ARMs has increased significantly, especially for subprime loans.