As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The yield on France 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.29% on July 23, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.04 points and is 0.15 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. France 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to May 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield rose to 2.68% on July 18, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.16 points and is 0.22 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Italy 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.49% on July 23, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.01 points and is 0.31 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Italy 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

As of July 18, 2025, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United Kingdom had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield rose to 1.59% on July 23, 2025, marking a 0.09 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.17 points and is 0.52 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield rose to 3.58% on July 24, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.26 points and is 0.21 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

General

The dataset contains government bond prices and yields of 30 countries from 6 world regions (Americas, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Middle East, Africa) in the range of 1970 to 2020.

The data was collected on TradingView and splitted in two files: prices.csv and yields.csv

Columns

There are 216 columns in both files sorted alphabetically. The difference is in units: for yields.csv each value represents a % yield for a particular bond and for prices.csv it is the cost of a bond in a particular country's currency.

column	description	unit
time	UNIX timestamp	ms
AU01	Australian Government Bond 1Y term	% or AUD
AU02	Australian Government Bond 2Y term	% or AUD
AU03	Australian Government Bond 3Y term	% or AUD
AU05	Australian Government Bond 5Y term	% or AUD

... | US07 | US Government Bond 5Y term | % or USD | | US10 | US Government Bond 10Y term | % or USD | | US20 | US Government Bond 20Y term | % or USD | | US30 | US Government Bond 30Y term | % or USD |

Prefixes

prefix	country
AU	Australia
BE	Belgium
CA	Canada
CN	China
DK	Denmark
FR	France
DE	Germany
GR	Greece
HK	Hong Kong
IN	India
ID	Indonesia
IE	Ireland
IT	Italy
JP	Japan
KR	Korea
MY	Malaysia
NL	Netherlands
NZ	New Zealand
NO	Norway
PL	Poland
PT	Portugal
SG	Singapore
ZA	South Africa
ES	Spain
SE	Sweden
TW	Taiwan
TH	Thailand
TR	Turkey
GB	UK
US	US

Acknowledgements

1. TradingView Inc., https://www.tradingview.com/
2. TradingView Inc., https://www.tradingview.com/
3. TradingView Inc., https://www.tradingview.com/

Government bond yields - 10 years' maturity, ENP-East countries Copyright notice and free re-use of data on: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/about-us/policies/copyright

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by June 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *************, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

This paper constructs daily measures of the real interest rate and expected inflation using commodity futures prices and the term structure of Treasury yields. We find that commodity futures markets respond to surprise increases in the federal funds rate target by raising the inflation rate expected over the next three to nine months. There is no evidence that the real interest rate responds to surprises in the federal funds target. The data from the commodity futures markets are highly volatile. We show that one can substantially reduce the noise using limited information estimators such as the median change. Nevertheless, the basket of commodities actually traded daily is quite narrow and we do not know whether our observable rates are closely connected to the unobservable inflation and real rates that affect economy-wide consumption and investment decisions.

The yield on US 3 Month Bill Bond Yield eased to 4.31% on July 22, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.01 points, though it remains 0.99 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Month Bill Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

This paper considers the effect of different dimensions of the FOMC's forward guidance on ex ante investor expectations about future changes in US Treasury yields. Options and Futures data for 2- and 10-year Treasuries is used to extract State-Price Densities of investor beliefs, and the corresponding standard deviation, skewness, and excess kurtosis of these densities are computed. Announcements about extension of the zero-lower bound in 2012-13 are found to reduce the expectations about crash risk, but increase the uncertainty about future yields for the 10-year. Policies about long-security purchases lead investors to place greater weight on no change in future yields.

The yield on Kenya 10Y Bond Yield held steady at 13.48% on July 21, 2025. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.09 points and is 3.58 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Kenya 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Bond Fund Sales Market Outlook

The bond fund sales market size was valued at approximately USD 10 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 15 trillion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%. This growth is primarily driven by increasing investor demand for stable and diversified income streams amidst global economic uncertainties. The market size expansion is fostered by factors such as an aging global population seeking more conservative investment options, heightened volatility in equity markets, and favorable regulatory changes supporting bond fund investments.

One of the primary growth factors for the bond fund sales market is the demographic shift towards an aging population, particularly in developed regions such as North America and Europe. As more individuals approach retirement age, there is a heightened need for investment products that offer steady income with reduced risk exposure. Bond funds, known for their relatively stable returns and lower volatility compared to equity funds, serve as an attractive option for this demographic. Additionally, the increasing life expectancy rates globally are pushing retirees to seek long-term investment solutions that can provide consistent income streams over extended periods.

Another significant growth driver is the evolving regulatory landscape that favors bond investments. Governments and financial regulatory bodies in various regions are implementing rules and guidelines that promote transparency and investor protection in the bond markets. These regulatory changes increase investor confidence and make bond funds more appealing to both retail and institutional investors. Furthermore, the introduction of green bonds and other socially responsible investment (SRI) products within the bond fund market is drawing interest from a growing segment of environmentally and socially conscious investors.

Technological advancements and the proliferation of digital investment platforms are also contributing to the growth of the bond fund sales market. Online platforms and robo-advisors are making it easier for retail investors to access and manage bond fund investments with lower fees and greater convenience. These platforms provide investors with tools and resources to make informed investment decisions, thereby increasing the participation rate of individual investors in the bond market. This digital transformation is democratizing access to bond funds and expanding the market's reach across various investor segments.

Regionally, the bond fund sales market exhibits diverse growth patterns. North America and Europe are expected to maintain their dominance due to their mature financial markets and high levels of investor awareness and engagement. However, the Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR during the forecast period, driven by rapid economic growth, rising disposable incomes, and increasing investor sophistication. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa regions are also witnessing growing interest in bond funds, albeit at a slower pace, as these markets gradually develop and integrate into the global financial system.

Fund Type Analysis

Government bond funds are a cornerstone of the bond fund market, offering investors a relatively low-risk investment option backed by government securities. These funds have been traditionally appealing to risk-averse investors, including retirees and conservative institutional investors. The demand for government bond funds is amplified during periods of economic uncertainty, as they are perceived as safe havens. The increasing issuance of government bonds to finance fiscal stimulus and infrastructure projects globally is also contributing to the growth of this segment. Moreover, central banks' policies, such as quantitative easing, have increased the liquidity and attractiveness of these bonds.

Corporate bond funds represent a significant portion of the bond fund market, providing higher yields compared to government bonds, albeit with increased risk. These funds invest in bonds issued by corporations to finance their operations and expansions. The corporate bond market is highly dynamic, with companies frequently entering and exiting the market based on their financing needs and credit ratings. The growth of this segment is supported by strong corporate earnings and favorable economic conditions that enhance companies' ability to service their debt. Additionally, the trend towards globalization and cross-border investments is expanding the market for corporate bond funds.

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The yield on Switzerland 10Y Bond Yield rose to 0.42% on July 24, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.03 points, though it remains 0.11 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Switzerland 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Treasury Software Market Outlook

The global treasury software market size was valued at USD 1.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 3.24 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% during the forecast period. Key growth factors include the increasing need for effective risk management, automation of manual treasury operations, and the adoption of cloud-based treasury solutions.

One of the primary growth factors driving this market is the increasing complexity of financial transactions and the need for real-time data. Companies are seeking advanced treasury software to manage their cash flow, liquidity, and risk more effectively. The automation of routine tasks such as reconciliation, cash positioning, and forecasting is significantly reducing operational costs and enhancing productivity. Moreover, regulations and compliance requirements are pushing organizations to adopt robust treasury management systems to ensure accuracy and transparency in financial reporting.

Another crucial factor contributing to the market's growth is the advancement in technology. The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) into treasury software solutions is enabling predictive analytics and smarter decision-making. These technologies help in identifying patterns and trends, thereby offering actionable insights for better financial planning and risk management. Furthermore, blockchain technology is being increasingly adopted to enhance the security and transparency of transactions, making treasury software even more indispensable.

The rising trend of digital transformation across various industries is also fueling the demand for treasury software. As businesses increasingly move their operations online, the need for sophisticated financial management tools is becoming more critical. Cloud-based treasury software solutions are gaining traction as they offer flexibility, scalability, and lower upfront costs compared to traditional on-premises solutions. The ability to access real-time financial data from any location is particularly beneficial for global enterprises managing multiple subsidiaries and currencies.

Regionally, North America holds the largest market share, driven by the presence of major technology players and a high adoption rate of advanced financial solutions. Europe follows closely, with significant investments in treasury management technology aimed at enhancing financial transparency and regulatory compliance. The Asia Pacific region is anticipated to witness the highest growth rate during the forecast period, attributed to the rapid economic development, increasing adoption of digital technologies, and the growing number of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are also expected to show considerable growth, driven by regulatory reforms and increasing awareness of the benefits of treasury software.

Component Analysis

The treasury software market is segmented by component into software and services. The software segment is dominant, driven by the increasing need for automation of various treasury functions such as cash flow management, liquidity tracking, and risk assessment. The treasury software includes various modules like treasury management systems (TMS), cash management, and financial risk management, each designed to streamline treasury operations and provide real-time insights. The adoption of AI and ML in these software solutions is further enhancing their capabilities, making them indispensable for modern financial management.

The services segment encompasses consulting, implementation, and support services. Consulting services involve advising organizations on the best practices and solutions tailored to their specific needs. Implementation services ensure the successful deployment of the software, including customization and integration with existing systems. Support services provide ongoing assistance to ensure the smooth operation of the software. As the complexity of financial operations increases, the demand for comprehensive service packages is also on the rise, contributing significantly to the market's growth.

The integration of advanced technologies in treasury software is also a notable trend in this segment. Companies are increasingly opting for solutions that offer predictive analytics, automated reporting, and real-time data visualization. These features enable better decision-making and improve financial performance. The shift towards cloud-based solutions is another key trend, offerin