As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS3) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-07-16 about 3-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Interactive chart showing the daily 5 year treasury yield back to 1962. The values shown are daily data published by the Federal Reserve Board based on the average yield of a range of Treasury securities, all adjusted to the equivalent of a five-year maturity.

At the end of 2024, the yield for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was 4.78 percent, slightly higher than the yields for bonds with short-term maturities. Bonds of longer maturities generally have higher yields as a reward for the uncertainty about the condition of financial markets in the future.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2025-07-15 about 2-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield eased to 5.00% on July 18, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.11 points and is 0.55 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities dataset provides average interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities on a monthly basis. Its primary purpose is to show the average interest rate on a variety of marketable and non-marketable Treasury securities. Marketable securities consist of Treasury Bills, Notes, Bonds, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), Floating Rate Notes (FRNs), and Federal Financing Bank (FFB) securities. Non-marketable securities consist of Domestic Series, Foreign Series, State and Local Government Series (SLGS), U.S. Savings Securities, and Government Account Series (GAS) securities. Marketable securities are negotiable and transferable and may be sold on the secondary market. Non-marketable securities are not negotiable or transferrable and are not sold on the secondary market. This is a useful dataset for investors and bond holders to compare how interest rates on Treasury securities have changed over time.

The yield on US 3 Month Bill Bond Yield rose to 4.34% on July 18, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.01 points, though it remains 0.99 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Month Bill Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Years: Mean: Plus 3 Qtrs data was reported at 3.363 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.113 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Years: Mean: Plus 3 Qtrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.927 % from Mar 1992 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 106 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.891 % in Dec 1994 and a record low of 2.060 % in Sep 2012. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Years: Mean: Plus 3 Qtrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

View a 10-year yield estimated from the average yields of a variety of Treasury securities with different maturities derived from the Treasury yield curve.

The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 3.92% on July 17, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.04 points and is 0.57 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Series is calculated as the spread between Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond© (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DBAA) and 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR).

©2017, Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "Moody's"). All rights reserved. Moody's ratings and other information ("Moody's Information") are proprietary to Moody's and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. Moody's Information is licensed to Client by Moody's. MOODY'S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

U.S. ten-year government bonds have provided significantly higher yields compared to German ten-year bonds since 2008, with the former yielding 4.42 percent in May 2025 compared to 2.56 percent for the latter. Being safe but low-return investments, treasury bond yields are generally considered an indicator of investor confidence about the economy. A rising yield indicates falling rates and falling demand, meaning that investors prefer to invest in higher-risk, higher-reward investments; a falling yield suggests the opposite.

As of December 2024, the countries with the highest 10-year yields are the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia with 4.68, 4.38 and 4.21 percent, respectively. Of the largest economies by GDP, the United States saw the sharpest fall in absolute terms for 10-year government bond yields due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. From a level of 1.51 percent in January 2020, yields on 10-year government bonds fell to 0.65 percent by April 2020, and had further fallen to 0.53 percent by July 2020 before starting to recover towards the end of the year. Conversely, countries that went into 2020 with already low bond yields like Japan, Germany and France actually saw a small increase in March 2020 - although these already low yields mean that these small changes are significant in relative terms.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data was reported at 1.981 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.667 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.450 % from Sep 1981 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 148 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14.439 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 0.057 % in Mar 2012. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

United States FRBOP: Annual Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Year: Mean: Current data was reported at 3.014 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.924 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP: Annual Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Year: Mean: Current data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.594 % from Mar 1992 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 106 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.691 % in Mar 1995 and a record low of 1.748 % in Dec 2016. United States FRBOP: Annual Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Year: Mean: Current data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.53% on July 18, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.12 points and is 0.49 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

In January 2020, prior to the onset of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, three of the seven largest economies by GDP had negative yields for two-year government bonds (Japan, Germany and France). With the onset of the pandemic, two-year bond yields in these countries actually rose slightly - in contrast to the other major economies, where yields fell over this period. As of December 2024, yields for two-year government bonds exhibited fluctuations across all countries. Notably, Japan showed a slight upward trend, while China experienced a modest decline.Negative yields assume that investors lack confidence in economic growth, meaning many investments (such as stocks) may lose value. Therefore, it is preferable to take a small loss on government debt that carries almost no risk to the investor, than risk a larger loss on other investments. As both the yen and euro are considered very safe assets, Japanese, German and French bonds were already being held by many investors prior to the pandemic as a hedge against economic downturn. Therefore, with the announcement of fiscal responses to the pandemic by many governments around March 2020, the value of these assets rose as confidence increased (slightly) that the worst case may be avoided. At the same time, yields on bonds with a higher return fell, as investors sought out investments with a higher return that were still considered safe.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Annual 10 Year Bond Yield: Mean: Next 10 Yrs data was reported at 3.570 % in 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.677 % for 2017. United States FRBOP Forecast: Annual 10 Year Bond Yield: Mean: Next 10 Yrs data is updated yearly, averaging 5.146 % from Dec 1992 (Median) to 2018, with 27 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.444 % in 1992 and a record low of 3.437 % in 2016. United States FRBOP Forecast: Annual 10 Year Bond Yield: Mean: Next 10 Yrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

On December 15, 2020, the FDIC Board of Directors approved a Final Rule (https://www.fdic.gov/news/board/2020/2020-12-15-notice-dis-a-fr.pdf) making certain revisions to the interest rate restrictions applicable to less than well capitalized institutions (as defined in Section 38 of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act), which are effective on April 1, 2021. The interest rate restrictions generally limit a less than well capitalized institution from soliciting deposits by offering rates that significantly exceed rates in its prevailing market.

The Final Rule redefined the "national rate" as the average of rates paid by all insured depository institutions and credit unions for which data is available, with rates weighted by each institution's share of domestic deposits. The "national rate cap" is calculated as the higher of: (1) the national rate plus 75 basis points; or (2) 120 percent of the current yield on similar maturity U.S. Treasury obligations plus 75 basis points. The national rate cap for non-maturity deposits is the higher of the national rate plus 75 basis points or the federal funds rate plus 75 basis points.

A less than well capitalized institution may use the "local rate cap" in place of the national rate cap for deposits gathered from within the institution's local market area. The Final Rule redefined the "local rate cap" for a particular deposit product as 90 percent of the highest rate offered on the deposit product by an institution or credit union accepting deposits at a physical location within the institution's local market area.

In accordance with Section 337.7(d), an insured depository institution that seeks to pay a rate of interest up to its local market rate cap shall provide notice and evidence of the highest rate paid on a particular deposit product in the institution's local market areas to the appropriate FDIC regional director. The institution shall update its evidence and calculations for existing and new accounts monthly unless otherwise instructed by the appropriate FDIC regional director, and retain such information available for at least the two most recent examination cycles and, upon the FDIC's request, provide the documentation to the appropriate FDIC regional office and to examination staff during any subsequent examinations.