The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Graph and download economic data for 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE15US) from 1991-08-30 to 2025-03-20 about 15-year, fixed, mortgage, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The U.S. bank prime loan rate has undergone significant fluctuations over the past three decades, reflecting broader economic trends and monetary policy decisions. From a high of 10.1 percent in 1990, the rate has seen periods of decline, stability, and recent increases. As of February 2025, the prime rate stood at 7.5 percent, marking a notable rise from the historic lows seen in the early 2020s. Federal Reserve's impact on lending rates The prime rate's trajectory closely mirrors changes in the federal funds rate, which serves as a key benchmark for the U.S. financial system. In 2023, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of rate hikes, pushing the federal funds target range to 5.25-5.5 percent by year-end. This aggressive monetary tightening was aimed at combating rising inflation, and its effects rippled through various lending rates, including the prime rate. Long-term investment outlook While short-term rates have risen, long-term investment yields have also seen changes. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, a benchmark for long-term interest rates, showed an average market yield of 2.13 percent in the second quarter of 2024, adjusted for constant maturity and inflation. This figure represents a recovery from negative real returns seen in 2021, reflecting shifting expectations for economic growth and inflation. The evolving yield environment has implications for both borrowers and investors, influencing decisions across the financial landscape.

Historical dataset of the daily 10 year treasury yield back to 1962. The 10 year treasury is the benchmark used to decide mortgage rates across the U.S. and is the most liquid and widely traded bond in the world.

Vietnam VN: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 3.300 % pa in 2013. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.655 % pa for 2012. Vietnam VN: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 3.853 % pa from Dec 1993 (Median) to 2013, with 18 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.027 % pa in 2007 and a record low of 1.990 % pa in 2010. Vietnam VN: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Vietnam – Table VN.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

Ten-year government bonds in the Netherlands had a yield of 2.8 percent in 2023, compared to 1.47 percent in 2022. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

Risk premium on lending (lending rate minus treasury bill rate, %) in Guyana was reported at 6.9472 % in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. Guyana - Risk premium on lending (prime rate minus treasury bill rate, %) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on March of 2025.

Brazil BR: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 31.484 % pa in 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 26.136 % pa for 2022. Brazil BR: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 33.566 % pa from Dec 1997 (Median) to 2023, with 27 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 57.797 % pa in 1998 and a record low of 18.402 % pa in 2013. Brazil BR: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Brazil – Table BR.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.;International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.;;

United States US: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 3.186 % pa in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.201 % pa for 2015. United States US: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 2.868 % pa from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2016, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.793 % pa in 1981 and a record low of 0.587 % pa in 1965. United States US: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

US 2 Year Note Bond Yield was 3.99 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Georgia GE: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 4.186 % pa in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 8.435 % pa for 2013. Georgia GE: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 5.238 % pa from Dec 2003 (Median) to 2017, with 4 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.435 % pa in 2013 and a record low of -20.507 % pa in 2003. Georgia GE: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Georgia – Table GE.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

This statistic shows the yield on ten-year government bonds in the Netherlands from 2011 to 2023 with a forecast for 2024 and 2025. In 2023, the long-term interest rate was at 2.8 percent. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury and Agency Securities: Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), All Commercial Banks (H8B1301NCBCAG) from 2010 to 2024 about mortgage-backed, agency, securities, Treasury, banks, depository institutions, and USA.

In November 2022, the long-term interest rate of the Netherlands reached a value of approximately 2.35, compared to 2.7 percent in Luxembourg. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

Jamaica JM: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data was reported at 10.535 % pa in 2016. This records an increase from the previous number of 10.387 % pa for 2015. Jamaica JM: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 6.236 % pa from Dec 1976 (Median) to 2016, with 39 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.927 % pa in 1995 and a record low of -3.518 % pa in 2009. Jamaica JM: Risk Premium on Lending: Lending Rate Minus Treasury Bill Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Jamaica – Table JM.World Bank.WDI: Interest Rates. Risk premium on lending is the interest rate charged by banks on loans to private sector customers minus the 'risk free' treasury bill interest rate at which short-term government securities are issued or traded in the market. In some countries this spread may be negative, indicating that the market considers its best corporate clients to be lower risk than the government. The terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability.; ; International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics database.; ;

Ten-year government bonds in Belgium had a yield of 3.1 percent in 2023, compared to 1.74 percent in 2022. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury and Agency Securities: Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), Domestically Chartered Commercial Banks (H8B1301NDMCQG) from Q4 2009 to Q4 2024 about charter, mortgage-backed, agency, securities, Treasury, domestic, banks, depository institutions, and USA.

The yield of ten-year government bonds in Belgium have started declining from April 2020 due to the financial unrest caused by the coronavirus outbreak in early March 2020, spending much of 2020 in negative territory. By July 2021, Belgian bond yields had dropped back to a negative value of -0.13 percent, before just creeping into positive territory again in September 2021 with a yield of 0.01 percent. From the beginning of 2022, ten-year yield of Belgian government bonds started to increase and reached 3.06 percent as of June 2023.

A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury and Agency Securities: Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), All Commercial Banks (TMBACBW027NBOG) from 2009-07-01 to 2025-03-12 about mortgage-backed, agency, securities, Treasury, banks, depository institutions, and USA.