In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

US 10 Year Note Bond Yield was 4.34 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

As of December 30, 2024, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of 27.38 percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United States had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

Russia 10Y Bond Yield was 15.01 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Russia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

US 30 Year Bond Yield was 4.72 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest 0.9 trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately 6.76 trillion U.S. dollars by March 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached eight percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by November 2024, inflation had declined to 2.7 percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at 5.33 percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of 114.3 billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the 58.84 billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over 281 billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of 174.53 billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

China 10Y Bond Yield was 1.88 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: All: Wednesday Level (TREAST) from 2002-12-18 to 2025-03-19 about maturity, securities, Treasury, and USA.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

As of November 2024, Luxembourg government bonds with maturities of close to ten years reached an average of 2.31 percent per annum. That was almost 0.8 percent less than the previous year. Treasury notes: a safe haven in times of trouble Ten-year government bonds, otherwise known as treasury notes, are debt obligations issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. In August 2019, investors became more interested in these investments as global developments sparked uncertainty on the stock markets. Traditionally, government bonds from the U.S. and Germany have the highest liquidity. When stock exchanges fall with around ten percent, a German treasury note with an interest rate of around 2.43 percent is then considered a relatively safe place. What are other options to do with your money in Luxembourg? In March 2023, the interest rate of short-term household deposits (with an agreed maturity of up to one year) in Luxembourg was 2.35. This was the lowest of all Benelux countries (Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands). Low interest rates on consumer savings are deemed a consequence of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), as it maintains artificially low interest rates to increase inflation on the European continent. Low interest rates and uncertainty on the stock exchange might therefore explain investors’ interest in gold. The international price of gold per troy ounce has increased sharply in recent years.

Canada 10Y Bond Yield was 3.16 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Brazil 10Y Bond Yield was 15.16 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Key information about Kenya Exchange Rate against USD

• Kenya Exchange Rate against USD averaged 137.240 (USD/KES) in May 2023, compared with 134.395 USD/KES in the previous month.
• Kenya Exchange Rate against USD data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1957 to May 2023.
• The data reached an all-time high of 137.240 in May 2023 and a record low of 6.900 in Dec 1973.

CEIC extends history for monthly average Exchange Rate against USD. Central Bank of Kenya provides average Exchange Rate against USD. Exchange Rate against USD prior to January 2000 is sourced from the International Monetary Fund.


Key information about Kenya Exchange Rate against USD

• In the latest reports, Kenya Short Term Interest Rate: Monthly Average: Treasury Bills Rate: 91 Days was reported at 9.760 % pa in Mar 2023.
• Its Long Term Interest Rate (Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Years) was reported at 13.490 % pa in May 2022.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Central Bank Rediscount Rate) was set at 9.500 % pa in May 2023.

The year 2021 saw the peak in issuance of residential mortgage backed securities (MBS), at 3.7 trillion U.S. dollars. Since then, MBS issuance has slowed, reaching 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023. What are mortgage backed securities? A mortgage backed security is a financial instrument in which a group of mortgages are bundled together and sold to the investors. The idea is that the risk of these individual mortgages is pooled when they are packaged together. This is a sound investment policy, unless the foreclosure rate increases significantly in a short amount of time. Mortgage risk Since mortgages are loans backed by an asset, the house, the risk is often considered relatively low. However, the loan maturities are very long, sometimes decades, meaning lenders must factor in the risk of a shift in the economic climate. As such, interest rates on longer mortgages tend to be higher than on shorter loans. The ten-year treasury yield influences these rates, since it is a long-term rate that most investors accept as risk-free. Additionally, a drop in the value of homeowner equity could lead to a situation where the debtor is “underwater” and owes more than the home is worth.

Romania 10Y Bond Yield was 7.48 percent on Tuesday March 25, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Romania 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

India 10Y Bond Yield was 6.60 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Investors have received lower and lower returns on 10-year bonds issued by the Australian government between 2010 and 2020. Peaking at 5.79 percent in March 2010, the yield on 10-year bond yields fell to a low of 0.83 percent in October 2020. Since then, yields have increased again, reaching 4.46 percent as of January 2025.

The average market risk premium in the United States decreased slightly to 5.5 percent in 2023. This suggests that investors demand a slightly lower return for investments in that country, in exchange for the risk they are exposed to. This premium has hovered between 5.3 and 5.7 percent since 2011. What causes country-specific risk? Risk to investments come from two main sources. First, inflation causes an asset’s price to decrease in real terms. A 100 U.S. dollar investment with three percent inflation is only worth 97 U.S. dollars after one year. Investors are also interested in risks of project failure or non-performing loans. The unique U.S. context Analysts have historically considered the United States Treasury to be risk-free. This view has been shifting, but many advisors continue to use treasury yield rates as a risk-free rate. Given the fact that U.S. government securities are available at a variety of terms, this gives investment managers a range of tools for predicting future market developments.

The U.S. bank prime loan rate has undergone significant fluctuations over the past three decades, reflecting broader economic trends and monetary policy decisions. From a high of 10.1 percent in 1990, the rate has seen periods of decline, stability, and recent increases. As of February 2025, the prime rate stood at 7.5 percent, marking a notable rise from the historic lows seen in the early 2020s. Federal Reserve's impact on lending rates The prime rate's trajectory closely mirrors changes in the federal funds rate, which serves as a key benchmark for the U.S. financial system. In 2023, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of rate hikes, pushing the federal funds target range to 5.25-5.5 percent by year-end. This aggressive monetary tightening was aimed at combating rising inflation, and its effects rippled through various lending rates, including the prime rate. Long-term investment outlook While short-term rates have risen, long-term investment yields have also seen changes. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, a benchmark for long-term interest rates, showed an average market yield of 2.13 percent in the second quarter of 2024, adjusted for constant maturity and inflation. This figure represents a recovery from negative real returns seen in 2021, reflecting shifting expectations for economic growth and inflation. The evolving yield environment has implications for both borrowers and investors, influencing decisions across the financial landscape.