The general freight trucking industry navigated substantial volatility over the current five-year period, driven by surging consumer demand and elevated freight volumes through 2021 and 2022. This was followed by a prolonged freight recession and gradual recovery through 2025. The early-period demand surge attracted new market entrants and drove significant revenue growth, as e-commerce expansion and supply chain reconfiguration generated consistent shipment volumes. Profit as a share of revenue rose from 8.5% in 2020 to 17.1% in 2025. Still, margin growth has been constrained by inflation-driven increases in operating costs and ongoing overcapacity. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening in 2023 slowed manufacturing and consumer spending, triggering a freight recession that persisted through much of 2024 and compressed spot rates despite carriers' attempts to maintain pricing discipline. Carriers responded by improving operational efficiency through technology investments. Other small enterprises exited the industry since profit turned negative. Smaller operators continue to struggle against larger enterprises that have stronger cash flows and greater access to capital. A 25.0% tariff on medium and heavy-duty trucks and their components has further complicated the operating environment by raising purchase costs and dampening import volumes at West Coast ports. Spot rates and contract renegotiations are reflecting both reduced freight demand and carriers' elevated capital requirements. Still, industry revenue reached $267.1 billion in 2025, growing 1.6% year-over-year, with the current five-year period recording a CAGR of 5.9%. Freight mode dynamics shifted materially in 2025 as shippers increasingly moved loads from less-than-truckload (LTL) networks toward full truckload service. This is partially a response to the deterioration of LTL service reliability and the escalation of density-based pricing, which has closed the traditional cost advantage of consolidated shipments. LTL shipment weight dropped in 2025 as density-based classification imposed premium charges on lightweight, high-cube freight. This incentivized shippers to accept partial truckload utilization rather than absorbing cumulative LTL accessorial charges and handling delays. Simultaneously, diesel prices surged in late 2025 to levels unseen since July 2024. This may limit carrier profit even as freight volumes remained depressed. Small carriers may exit if companies are unable to absorb the softness in freight demand and rising fuel costs. The trucking industry is facing a period of transition as tariffs, diesel price volatility and continued freight uncertainty create an operating environment where scale and financial resilience are crucial. Autonomous vehicle development, real-time logistics optimization and intermodal rail integration may continue to improve operational efficiency for large carriers. Technology could also create competitive advantages that accelerate consolidation among smaller fleets, which often lack the capital for technology and fuel hedging. Spot rate recovery is likely in 2026, but remains contingent on carrier capacity exiting faster than declines in freight demand. Tariff-driven equipment price hikes may also contribute to this outcome. Profit margin is anticipated to stabilize at 17.2% of revenue as larger carriers extract scale advantages while smaller operators face lower profit. Industry revenue is projected to climb at a CAGR of 1.6% over the next five years, reaching $288.7 billion in 2030.

The trucking industry has undergone a significant structural transformation over the past five years, marked by e-commerce-driven demand and technology-enabled efficiency gains. Small and medium-sized enterprises are increasingly relying on less-than-truckload services to optimize shipment economics by consolidating parcels across multiple shippers. Meanwhile, carriers have deployed advanced transportation management systems and real-time optimization software to accommodate fluctuating demand and meet accelerating delivery expectations. The sector has simultaneously faced persistent labor supply constraints. Aging workforce demographics and regulatory limitations on driving hours are forcing carriers to compete for driver talent through wage increases and benefit enhancements that have pressured operating profit. Some industry consolidation (Yellow Corporation's 2023 bankruptcy, UPS's divestment of its LTL business and significant acquisitions by XPO Logistics) concentrated market share among larger operators capable of absorbing technology investments and weathering prolonged freight downturns. Contract-based pricing models have provided relative stability compared to the volatility of the spot market. However, rising insurance, maintenance and equipment costs have offset the efficiency gains achieved through automation and network optimization. Industry revenue reached $1.0 trillion in 2025, growing 1.6% year-over-year, with the current five-year period recording a CAGR of 4.5%. The drop in profit margin reflects the general challenges of the freight trucking industry. As freight demand softened in 2023, labor and operating costs climbed. With elevated interest rates, the freight recession contributed to less revenue growth throughout 2024. If the Fed continues to lower interest rates and consumer spending expands, freight volumes are likely to accelerate through 2025 and 2026. However, tariffs on heavy-duty trucks and imported components, such as aluminum and steel, will likely contribute to higher Class 8 truck prices and significant capital expenditure requirements. Carriers seeking to maintain modern, compliant fleets may generate lower profit over the next five years. Autonomous driving technology continues advancing on regional and long-haul routes, promising efficiency gains through extended operating hours and reduced labor requirements. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts could continue to support consumer demand and reduce borrowing costs, which would help offset pressure from tariff-driven equipment price increases and persistent skilled labor shortages. The trucking industry faces simultaneous pressures from regulatory mandates, technological disruption and market consolidation that will reshape competitive dynamics through 2030. Electric vehicle regulations in California, Oregon and Washington are raising entry barriers for non-employer establishments and small fleets by requiring investments in charging infrastructure, specialized technician training and vehicle purchases at premium price points. This accelerates consolidation toward larger carriers with the capital resources to absorb these transition costs. Profit margin will face competing pressures as technology capital investments compete against wage demands from remaining skilled workers. The profit margin is expected to stabilize at 9.3% of revenue in 2030, a 0.2% gain from 2025. This is well below the 29.1% achieved in 2020 because nonemployer growth increased competition in an industry with rising labor and maintenance costs. Industry revenue is projected to climb at a CAGR of 1.6% through 2030, reaching $1.08 trillion.

The toll roads and weigh stations industry demonstrated substantial growth over the current five-year period, driven by federal infrastructure investments, sustained freight demand from e-commerce expansion and public-private partnerships that bolstered toll collection during economic recovery. Commercial vehicle activity remained resilient during the 2020 pandemic lockdowns. Essential shipping continued to support ongoing toll road and weigh station usage despite broader travel disruptions. Federal funding programs in 2020 and 2021 accelerated the development of PPP projects and system modernization. This enabled authorities to invest in automation technologies, including cameras, sensors and electronic tolling systems, which improved operational efficiency and reduced labor costs. A temporary freight recession in 2023 slowed growth as trucking volumes declined, but consumer spending recovered through 2024, reviving freight traffic and toll revenues. The profit margin expanded significantly during this period, growing from 8.2% of revenue in 2020 to 12.3% in 2025. This reflects both toll rate increases tied to inflation and cost savings from automation, which reduced per-transaction collection expenses. Industry revenue reached $7.4 billion in 2025, growing 3.1% year over year, with a CAGR of 8.4% over the last five years. The industry's near-term performance is facing headwinds from tariff-driven affordability pressures and uncertainty in freight demand. Tariffs implemented through October 2025 have increased consumer prices, reducing household disposable income and dampening discretionary vehicle travel. At the same time, commercial freight import volumes may drop as supply chain volatility persists. Lower-income households bearing disproportionate tariff burdens may further compress toll demand. Commercial vehicle traffic, which generates disproportionately higher per-transaction revenue, remains sensitive to trade policy shocks. Conversely, ongoing e-commerce expansion and consumer preference for home delivery continue supporting baseline logistics activity and truck traffic. Inflation-indexed toll rate increases allow operators to maintain revenue growth despite modest traffic volume pressures. Wages as a share of revenue fell because cashless tolling and weigh-in-motion automation became more widespread. Toll roads and weigh stations may face potential revenue challenges if federal infrastructure funding expires after 2026 and tariff uncertainty continues to strain freight demand. The Congressional Budget Office projects that federal highway funding could face solvency pressures by 2028 if Congress does not reauthorize or transfer general fund support. This could create volatility in state toll authority capital programs, which would limit the flexibility of toll rates. Technological advancements, including weigh-in-motion enforcement systems, dynamic pricing platforms and multi-protocol electronic tolling, are likely to continue. However, adoption may slow down as authorities prioritize cost containment during federal funding uncertainty. Revenue is projected to climb at a CAGR of 1.4% over the next five years, reaching $8.0 billion by 2030, with the profit margin stabilizing at 12.6% of revenue as operating leverage from automation plateaus and wage pressures for specialized technical roles offset labor-saving efficiency gains.

The Water Freight Transport industry has grown over the past five years, but revenue volatility has been very high. The industry experienced strong revenue growth over the two years through 2022-23, due to a recovery in activity following a slump in 2020-21 at the start of the pandemic. Rising fuel prices over the two years through 2022-23, caused by the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict allowed shipping companies to increase fuel surcharges, boosting revenue. Meanwhile, disruptions to global supply chains increased demand and pricing power of domestic shipping companies, further increasing revenue and supporting a surge in margins. However, over the three years through 2025-26, the industry has faced declines with falling world crude oil prices leading to declining fuel surcharges, normalising global supply chains limiting pricing power, weakening economic conditions reducing freight volumes and fleet breakdowns and ageing and retiring vessels disrupting coastal shipping and ferry activity. Overall, industry revenue is expected to grow by an annualised 6.8% over the five years through 2025-26, including a 5.2% slump in the current year. The industry has faced significant turmoil over the last five years. The second-largest player, KiwiRail, has had multiple major breakdowns of its ferries and was forced to retire its Aratere ferry, the only rail ferry in New Zealand, in mid-2025 due to mounting maintenance costs and decaying infrastructure. The change in government in 2023 saw the scrapping of coastal shipping funding for the expansion of domestic New Zealand fleets, and a new funding plan for landside infrastructure funding for Cook Strait ferries. Shifts in government funding policies have caused delays and disruptions to the expansion of the New Zealand shipping fleet and upgrades of ageing landside infrastructure. The industry is expected to return to sluggish growth over the next five years, following revenue declines over the three years through 2025-26. Growth is expected to be supported by the recovery of the New Zealand economy, following a recession in mid- to late-2024. Slow growth in oil prices is also expected to increase fuel surcharges slightly. However, margins are expected to remain low amid rising maintenance costs from an ageing fleet. Industry revenue is expected to grow at an annualised 1.0% over the five years through 2030-31.