RealClearPolitics - President Trump Job Approval - Inflation

According to a poll conducted at the end of 2022, Americans were feeling quite pessimistic about the coming year. 90 percent of Americans felt negatively about the prospect of political conflict in 2023.

The Economy 2022 was a difficult year for many Americans, as it was for many around the world. After a year of high inflation, record fuel prices, and decreased financial security, the country greeted 2023 with high rates of skepticism and caution. Although the U.S. economy itself has experienced a strong rebound from the pandemic recession compared with other major economies, a sustained decline in consumer spending power thanks to wage growth not keeping pace with inflation has everyday Americans feeling the pinch.

U.S. political landscape The political scene in the U.S. also had a tumultuous few years in the lead up to 2023. The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States in 2016 left many voters reeling and the country more divided than ever. The beginning of 2021 was market by the January 6th attack on the Capitol, as well as the inauguration of Joe Biden. Additionally, the country continued to grapple with a politicized response to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions. 2022 began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ushering in the beginning of a global fuel and inflation crisis. In the midst of hardening economic conditions, the Supreme Court overturned its ruling on Roe v. Wade, returning the power to decide abortion restrictions to state legislatures.

The 2022 midterm elections saw Republicans win enough seats to take back control of the House of Representatives, but saw the GOP ultimately underperform compared to predictions at the time. The first day of the 2023 congressional term was marked by the inability of the Republican Party to unify itself behind one candidate for Speaker of the House, leading to a once in a century multi-round of Speaker elections. With new members of the House not able to be sworn in until a Speaker is elected, 2023 had a difficult start.

According to a survey conducted between July 9 and July 11, 2022, 45 percent of Americans thought that Joe Biden was highly responsible for the current trend in the inflation rate. This is compared to 26 percent of Americans who said President Biden did not have a lot of responsibility for the current inflation rate.

Inflation in the U.S. Global events in 2022 had a significant impact on the United States. Inflation rose from 1.4 percent in January 2021 to 9.1 percent in June 2022. Significantly higher prices of basic goods led to increased concern over the state of the economy, and the ability to cover increasing monthly costs with the same income. Low interest rates, COVID-19-related supply constraints, corporate profiteering, and strong consumer spending had already put pressure on prices before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite rising wages on paper, the rapid growth of consumer prices resulted in an overall decline in real hourly earnings in the first half of 2022.

How much control does Joe Biden have over inflation? The bulk of economic performance and the inflation rate is determined by factors outside the President’s direct control, but U.S. presidents are often held accountable for it. Some of those factors are market forces, private business, productivity growth, the state of the global economy, and policies of the Federal Reserve. Although high-spending decisions such as the 2021 COVID-19 relief bill may have contributed to rising inflation rates, the bill has been seen by economists as a necessary intervention for preventing a recession at the time, as well as being of significant importance to low-income workers impacted by the pandemic.

The most important tool for curbing inflation and controlling the U.S. economy is the Federal Reserve. The Reserve has the ability to set, raise, and lower interest rates and determine the wider monetary policy for the United States – something out of the president’s control. In June 2022, the Reserve announced it would raise interest rates 0.75 percent for the second time that year – hoisting the rate to a target range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent – in an attempt to slow consumer demand and balance demand with supply. However, it can often take time before the impacts of interventions by the Federal Reserve are seen in the public’s day-to-day lives. Most economists expect this wave of inflation to pass in a year to 18 months.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency, PIIE Working Paper 24-20.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland. 2024. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency. PIIE Working Paper 24-20. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data, tables, and charts presented in Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans, PIIE Policy Brief 24-1.

If you use the data, please cite as: Clausing, Kimberly, and Mary E. Lovely. 2024. Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans. PIIE Policy Brief 24-1. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

According to a survey conducted in December 2024, approximately 34 percent of Americans wanted Trump to prioritize inflation throughout his first 100 days in office. Additionally, 30 percent wanted to see Trump focus on immigration in his first days in office.

Graph and download economic data for Inflation, consumer prices for the United States (FPCPITOTLZGUSA) from 1960 to 2024 about consumer, CPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

In January 2025, prices had increased by three percent compared to January 2024 according to the 12-month percentage change in the consumer price index — the monthly inflation rate for goods and services in the United States. The data represents U.S. city averages. In economics, the inflation rate is a measure of the change in price level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. A projection of the annual U.S. inflation rate can be accessed here and the actual annual inflation rate since 1990 can be accessed here. InflationOne of the most important economic indicators is the development of the Consumer Price Index in a country. The change in this price level of goods and services is defined as the rate of inflation. The inflationary situation in the United States had been relatively severe in 2022 due to global events relating to COVID-19, supply chain restrains, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. More information on U.S. inflation may be found on our dedicated topic page. The annual inflation rate in the United States has increased from 3.2 percent in 2011 to 8.3 percent in 2022. This means that the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has weakened in recent years. The purchasing power is the extent to which a person has available funds to make purchases. According to the data published by the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was about 258.84 in 2020 and is forecasted to grow up to 325.6 by 2027, compared to the base period from 1982 to 1984. The monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for urban consumers in the United States was 0.1 percent in March 2023 compared to the previous month. In 2022, countries all around the world are experienced high levels of inflation. Although Brazil already had an inflation rate of 8.3 percent in 2021, compared to the previous year, while the inflation rate in China stood at 0.85 percent.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.40 percent in May from 2.30 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In August 2024, the presidential campaign of former U.S. President and Republican nominee Donald Trump devoted ** percent of its TV ad spend to ads that mentioned immigration and/or crime. By the following month, ads mentioning these themes accounted for less than *** percent of spending. Instead, inflation was the primary focus, receiving ** percent of ad spend.

Oil prices surged due to Trump's skepticism about Iran negotiations and optimism for a China trade deal, supported by lower US inflation and positive market sentiment.

Before handing over to President Trump, President Biden's administration in the United States obligated the spending of 84 percent of the clean energy funds allocated by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) awarded 38 billion U.S. dollars in binding contracts signed as of January 2025.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Ace of Hearts (SLRN): Can it Trump the Market?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Die von Donald Trump im Januar 2025 angekündigten Strafzölle in Höhe von 25 Prozent auf Importgüter aus Mexiko und Kanada würden in den drei Mitgliedstaaten des USA-Mexiko-Kanada-Abkommens die Inflationsrate erhöhen. Wie stark würden die Preise in Nordamerika durch den Handelskrieg steigen? Am Beispiel der USA würden die Preise durch einseitige Strafzölle der USA um rund 0,43 Prozentpunkte mehr steigen als ohne die Zölle. Der IMF geht für die USA von einer Inflationsrate im Jahr 2025 von rund 1,85 Prozent aus. Durch die von Trump angekündigten Strafzölle gegen Mexiko und Kanada könnte die Inflationsrate im Jahr 2025 demnach bei rund 2,28 Prozent liegen. Sollten Mexiko und Kanada zudem Vergeltungs- oder Gegenzölle auf US-Exporte in die beiden Länder erheben, könnte die Inflationsrate auf bis zu 2,71 Prozent steigen. Vergeltungszölle (Gegenzölle) von Mexiko und Kanada würden zu noch höheren Inflationsraten in allen drei Ländern führen. In Mexiko und Kanada würde die Inflationsrate in diesem Szenario um rund drei bis vier Prozentpunkte höher liegen als ohne Straf- und Vergeltungszölle. Für Mexiko prognostiziert der IMF eine Inflationsrate von rund 3,79 Prozent im Jahr 2025. Im Falle von Straf- und Gegenzöllen könnte die Inflationsrate in Mexiko im Jahr 2025 auf fast acht Prozent steigen. Die Prognosen für die Inflationsrate in Kanada sind niedriger als in Mexiko. Durch Straf- und Vergeltungszölle könnte die Inflationsrate in Kanada auf bis zu 4,9 Prozent steigen. Welche wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen hätte der neue Handelskrieg? Der neue Zollkrieg von Donald Trump, der sich zunächst gegen Kanada, Mexiko und China zu richten scheint, hätte signifikante wirtschaftliche Effekte. Der Außenhandel mit Kanada und Mexiko, der im USA-Mexiko-Kanada-Abkommen (ehemals NAFTA) geregelt ist, hatte zuvor kaum Importzölle. Chinesische Importgüter waren dagegen bereits zuvor mit diversen Zöllen belegt (siehe die Themenseite zum Handelskrieg). Die wichtigsten Effekte wären eine Preissteigerung der betroffenen Güter, da Importeure die höhere Belastung durch Steuern über die Preise an Verbraucher:innen weitergeben. Die wichtigsten betroffenen Güter:

US-Strafzölle auf Importe aus Mexiko nach Zollsatz und Einfuhrwert. US-Strafzölle auf Importe aus China nach Zollsatz und Einfuhrwert. US-Strafzölle aus Kanada nach Zollsatz und Einfuhrwert.

Dies würde sich ebenfalls auf die Wirtschaftsleistung auswirken und zu langsamem Wachstum führen. Die Prognosen zur Abweichung des BIP-Wachstums von den Ursprungsprognosen gehen von einem geringeren Wachstum von ein bis zwei Prozentpunkten in den kommenden Jahren aus.

Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) inclined by 3.33 percent in 2020 after adjusting for inflation. This figure fell from 13.4 percent growth four years ago, which had been a reaction to sanctions lifting after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JPCOA) regarding Iran’s nuclear program. United States president Donald Trump ended that country’s participation in the deal, imposing new sanctions.

Political influence on the economy

Political tensions have hampered the economy of Iran, keeping growth low in spite of the country’s considerable oil reserves. The effect of these sanctions becomes obvious when looking at Iran’s oil exports to Europe over the past decade. Some analysts have blamed the new sanctions for the increase in Iran’s inflation rate, as well as the currency depreciation that has accompanied it.

Iran’s options

Although Iran’s main export partners are largely in Asia, many of the transactions are carried out using U.S. dollars. Even though other means of payment are possible, some countries worry about political ramifications of continuing trade relations with Iran. Iran’s greatest strength at the moment may be its low national debt, meaning that it can borrow a substantial amount of money if it can find a willing lender. However, given the instability of the political situation worldwide and regionally, it is difficult to assume that such a borrower exists at the moment.

Money Supply M2 in the United States increased to 21942 USD Billion in May from 21862.40 USD Billion in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Money Supply M2 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by June 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *************, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

As of the third quarter of 2024, the GDP of the U.S. grew by 2.8 percent from the second quarter of 2024. GDP, or gross domestic product, is effectively a count of the total goods and services produced in a country over a certain period of time. It is calculated by first adding together a country’s total consumer spending, government spending, investments and exports; and then deducting the country’s imports. The values in this statistic are the change in ‘constant price’ or ‘real’ GDP, which means this basic calculation is also adjusted to factor in the regular price changes measured by the U.S. inflation rate. Because of this adjustment, U.S. real annual GDP will differ from the U.S. 'nominal' annual GDP for all years except the baseline from which inflation is calculated. What is annualized GDP? The important thing to note about the growth rates in this statistic is that the values are annualized, meaning the U.S. economy has not actually contracted or grown by the percentage shown. For example, the fall of 29.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 did not mean GDP is suddenly one third less than a year before. In fact, it means that if the decline seen during that quarter continued at the same rate for a full year, then GDP would decline by this amount. Annualized values can therefore exaggerate the effect of short-term economic shocks, as they only look at economic output during a limited period. This effect can be seen by comparing annualized quarterly growth rates with the annual GDP growth rates for each calendar year.

In 2023, it was estimated that over 161 million Americans were in some form of employment, while 3.64 percent of the total workforce was unemployed. This was the lowest unemployment rate since the 1950s, although these figures are expected to rise in 2023 and beyond. 1980s-2010s Since the 1980s, the total United States labor force has generally risen as the population has grown, however, the annual average unemployment rate has fluctuated significantly, usually increasing in times of crisis, before falling more slowly during periods of recovery and economic stability. For example, unemployment peaked at 9.7 percent during the early 1980s recession, which was largely caused by the ripple effects of the Iranian Revolution on global oil prices and inflation. Other notable spikes came during the early 1990s; again, largely due to inflation caused by another oil shock, and during the early 2000s recession. The Great Recession then saw the U.S. unemployment rate soar to 9.6 percent, following the collapse of the U.S. housing market and its impact on the banking sector, and it was not until 2016 that unemployment returned to pre-recession levels. 2020s 2019 had marked a decade-long low in unemployment, before the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic saw the sharpest year-on-year increase in unemployment since the Great Depression, and the total number of workers fell by almost 10 million people. Despite the continuation of the pandemic in the years that followed, alongside the associated supply-chain issues and onset of the inflation crisis, unemployment reached just 3.67 percent in 2022 - current projections are for this figure to rise in 2023 and the years that follow, although these forecasts are subject to change if recent years are anything to go by.