Immigration and demographic change have become highly salient in American politics, partly because of the 2016 campaign of Donald Trump. Previous research indicates that local influxes of immigrants or unfamiliar ethnic groups can generate threatened responses, but has either focused on non-electoral outcomes or has analyzed elections in large geographic units such as counties. Here, we examine whether demographic changes at low levels of aggregation were associated with vote shifts toward an anti-immigration presidential candidate between 2012 and 2016. To do so, we compile a novel, precinct-level data set of election results and demographic measures for almost 32,000 precincts in the states of Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Washington. We employ regression analyses varying model specifications and measures of demographic change. Our estimates uncover little evidence that influxes of Hispanics or non-citizen immigrants benefited Trump relative to past Republicans, instead consistently showing that such changes were associated with shifts to Trump's opponent.

Online survey administered via Qualtrics in July, 2017, yielding 1,112 completed responses from respondents who passed two attention checks. Quotas were established matching the U.S. Census, following previous research (Bode et al. 2014). The questions used are briefly described below and all the items asked in each scale can be provided upon request.

Title: Pew Research Center – Wave 69 American Trends Panel Fieldwork Dates: June 16–22, 2020 Sample Size: N = 4,708 U.S. adults Mode: Web-based survey (English and Spanish) Purpose: This wave of the ATP explores public opinion on coronavirus concerns, political traits, policing reforms, and census participation. It includes longitudinal variables from previous waves (W59 and W64) and supports multiple Pew Research reports released between June and July 2020. The dataset includes multiple weighting schemes for full sample analysis, longitudinal tracking, and census module calibration. It also features a battleground state classification variable for electoral analysis. 🏷️ Tags - Pew Research Center - American Trends Panel - COVID-19 - Public Opinion - Census Participation - Police Reform - Political Traits - Battleground States - Longitudinal Survey - Web Survey - Social Media Use - Survey Weights - Panel Study - June 2020 - U.S. Politics 📝 Notes 📊 Weighting Variables - WEIGHT_W69: Full sample weight for general analysis. - WEIGHT_W59_W69: Longitudinal weight for panelists who responded to Waves 59 and 69. - WEIGHT_W64_W69: Longitudinal weight for panelists who responded to Waves 64 and 69. - WEIGHT_W69_CENSUS: Census module weight adjusted to match estimated 2020 census response rate (targeted at 74%). 🧠 Key Variables - SNSUSE: Non-internet households coded as not using social media. - COVID_COMFORT_COMB_W69: Combines comfort levels from two COVID-related questions. - BATTLE_NARROW_W69: Classifies respondents by battleground state status using SPSS syntax. Categories include: - 1 = Solid Democrat - 2 = Lean/Likely Democrat - 3 = Toss-up/Battleground - 4 = Lean/Likely Republican - 5 = Solid Republican 🔁 Longitudinal Variables from Prior Waves - POL1DT_W59, POL1DTSTR_W59, POL1DT_W64, POL1DTSTR_W64 - DEMFIELD_W59, TRUMPDEM2020_W59, DEM1_CODE_FINAL_W59 🔐 Privacy Measures - State-level data used for classification, but actual state identifiers are excluded. - ZIP codes, counties, and phone numbers removed to protect respondent confidentiality. 📚 Related Reports - Republicans, Democrats Move Further Apart on Coronavirus - Public’s Mood Turns Grim; Trump Trails Biden - Majority Favors Power to Sue Police Officers - Census Participation and Doorstep Reluctance Let me know if you’d like help building a codebook, visualizing trends, or preparing this for statistical analysis.

Content

Hate Crimes

This folder contains data behind the story Higher Rates Of Hate Crimes Are Tied To Income Inequality.

Sources: Kaiser Family Foundation Kaiser Family Foundation Kaiser Family Foundation Census Bureau Kaiser Family Foundation Kaiser Family Foundation Census Bureau Kaiser Family Foundation United States Elections Project Southern Poverty Law Center FBI

Correction

Please see the following commit: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/commit/fbc884a5c8d45a0636e1d6b000021632a0861986

Context

This is a dataset from FiveThirtyEight hosted on their GitHub. Explore FiveThirtyEight data using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the FiveThirtyEight organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using GitHub's API and Kaggle's API.

This dataset is distributed under the Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license.

From: and: More info: Copied Jan 5th, 2020: More than a year after his death, a cache of computer files saved on the hard drives of Thomas Hofeller, a prominent Republican redistricting strategist, is becoming public. Republican state lawmakers in North Carolina fought in court to keep copies of these maps, spreadsheets and other documents from entering the public record. But some files have already come to light in recent months through court filings and news reports. They have been cited as evidence of gerrymandering that got political maps thrown out in North Carolina, and they have raised questions about Hofeller s role in the Trump administration s failed push for a census citizenship question. Now more of the files are available online through a website c

Since 1964, voter turnout rates in U.S. presidential elections have generally fluctuated across all age groups, falling to a national low in 1996, before rising again in the past two decades. Since 1988, there has been a direct correlation with voter participation and age, as people become more likely to vote as they get older. Participation among eligible voters under the age of 25 is the lowest of all age groups, and in the 1996 and 2000 elections, fewer than one third of eligible voters under the age of 25 participated, compared with more than two thirds of voters over 65 years.

Laut Erhebungen des US Census Bureau lag der Anteil der Briefwählerinnen und -Wähler bei der US-Präsidentschaftswahl im Jahr 2020 bei etwa 43 Prozent, dem höchsten Wert im Verlauf der vergangenen Jahre. Aufgrund der Corona-Pandemie entschieden sich viele US-Amerikanerinnen und Amerikaner ihre Stimme per Post abzugeben.

Die Wahlen zum 59. US-Präsidenten
Am 3. November 2020 fand in den USA die 59. Präsidentschaftswahl statt. Nach den Vorwahlen, die bereits im Februar 2020 unter COVID-19-bedingten Einschränkungen begonnen hatten, traten der damals amtierende Präsident Donald Trump gegen den Herausforderer der demokratischen Partei und ehemaligen Vize-Präsidenten Joe Biden an. Nach einer langen Wahlnacht mit einem zunächst engen Verlauf und anschließenden juristischen und gesellschaftlichen Protesten über den korrekten Wahlausgang konnte Joe Biden schließlich als 59. US-Präsident vereidigt werden. Trump sah im hohen Anteil der Briefwahlstimmen einen möglichen Betrug am Wahlergebnis, welcher jedoch nicht bestätigt werden konnte. Weitere Informationen rund um die US-Wahl finden Sie auf der gleichnamigen Themenseite.

Das amerikanische Wahlsystem Am Tag der Wahl werden durch die wählende Bevölkerung die Wahlmänner (Electoral College) bestimmt, die im Dezember in einer formalen Wahl den neuen US-Präsidenten wählen. Im Januar werden die Stimmen ausgezählt und der US-Präsident oder die US-Präsidentin ernannt. Durch das föderale Wahlsystem der einzelnen Staaten und die Bestimmung von Wahlmännern und Wahlfrauen kann es nicht als gegeben betrachtet werden, dass der Kandidat bzw. die Kandidatin mit den meisten Wählerstimmen auch die Präsidentschaftswahl gewonnen hat. Bei der Wahl 2020 siegte Joe Biden in beiden Fällen, er erlangte rund 81 Millionen Wählerstimmen im gesamten Land und konnte durch die gewonnen Bundesstaaten insgesamt 306 Stimmen der Wahlmänner und -frauen für sich gewinnen.