This statistic shows the estimated value of the retaliation limits permitted by the World Trade Organization for major trading partners of the United States should a case be brought against the United States as a result of President Trump's proposed tariff on steel and aluminum imports, as of March 2018. The retaliation limit is based on the estimated export losses due to Trump's trade tariffs. Should such a case be successful these figures show the retaliation capacity of each country as they could then impose tariffs against the United States on other products to the prescribed value without breaking World Trade Organization regulations.

It is estimated that if the case were successful, Canada would be able to impose tariffs on U.S. imports to the value of 3.2 billion U.S. dollars. This retaliation limit would be awarded to them by the World Trade Organization, allowing tariffs that would normally risk sanctions. The 3.2 billion U.S. dollar retaliation limit would be afforded to Canada in response to the expected 2 billion U.S. dollars in lost steel exports and 1.2 billion U.S. dollars in lost aluminum exports if the tariffs were to be imposed.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data, tables, and charts presented in Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans, PIIE Policy Brief 24-1.

If you use the data, please cite as: Clausing, Kimberly, and Mary E. Lovely. 2024. Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans. PIIE Policy Brief 24-1. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

President Trump's proposals to impose universal tariffs as well as tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican imports would considerably increase the average tariff rate. It's estimated that, if put into effect, the average tariff rate including dutiable imports would reach almost 18 percent, up from two percent in 2024. Tariff rates are higher when dutiable imports are included because they refer only to goods that are actually subject to tariffs, rather than all imports. This skews the average tariff rate upward because it excludes duty-free goods. Trump's proposal for a universal 10 percent tariff on all imports would impose a flat tax on all imports, rather than just dutiable goods. This would result in a sharp increase in the overall tariff burden because previously duty-free goods would be taxed.

According to estimates, President Trump's proposals to impose universal tariffs as well as tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican imports would considerably increase the average tariff rate. If Trump's proposals go into effect, it is estimated that the average tariff rate of all imports would almost triple, marking the highest rate in the United States since 1969.

Tariffs have long been central tool in global trade policy. Learn how tariffs affect critical US industries, and how businesses are navigating their impacts.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency, PIIE Working Paper 24-20.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland. 2024. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency. PIIE Working Paper 24-20. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

In 2023, Chinese exports of trade goods to the United States amounted to about 427.23 billion U.S. dollars; a significant increase from 1985 levels, when imports from China amounted to about 3.86 billion U.S. dollars. U.S. exports to China Compared to U.S. imports from China, the value of U.S. exports to China in 2020 amounted to 427.23billion U.S. dollars. China is the United States’ largest trading partner, while China was the United States third largest goods export market. Some of the leading exports to China in the agricultural sector included soybeans, cotton, and pork products. Texas was the leading state that exported to China in 2020 based on total value of goods exports, at 16.9 billion U.S. dollars. U.S. - China trade war The trade war between the United States and China is an economic conflict between two of the world’s largest national economies. It started in 2018 when U.S. President Donald Trump started putting tariffs and trade barriers on China, with the intent to get China to conform to Trump’s wishes. President Trump claimed that China has unfair trade businesses. As a result of this trade war, it has caused a lot of tension between the U.S. and China. Nearly half of American companies impacted by the U.S.-China trade tariffs said that the trade war increased their cost of manufacturing. The healthcare product industry has suffered the most from the trade war in regards to reduced profits.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the value of exports from the United Kingdom amounted to approximately 206.3 billion British pounds, while imports to the country amounted to around 217.8 billion pounds, resulting in a trade deficit of around 11.5 billion pounds in this quarter. During this time period, the value of UK exports was highest in the fourth quarter of 2022, with the value of imports peaking in the third quarter of 2022. The UK's main trade partners Despite the UK leaving the EU in 2020 following the Brexit referendum of 2016, Europe remains the main destination for UK exports, with almost half of UK exports heading there in 2023. During the same year, just over 60 percent of imports came from European countries, compared with around 17.9 percent from countries in Asia, and 11.8 percent from the Americas. In terms of individual countries, the United States was the UK's leading export partner for both goods and services from the UK, while Germany was the main source of UK goods imports, and the U.S. for service imports. It is as yet unclear how the return of Donald Trump to the White House will impact UK/US trade relations, should the President follow through with threats made on the campaign trail to increase trade tariffs. Brexit rethink under Starmer? Although generally more pro-European than the previous government, the new Labour government, led by Keir Starmer, does not plan to rejoin the European Union, or the Single Market. Public opinion, while gradually turning against Brexit recently, has not coalesced around a particular trading relationship. In late 2023, a survey indicated that while 31 percent of British adults wanted to rejoin the EU, a further 30 percent wanted to simply improve relations with the EU, instead of rejoining. Just 11 percent of respondents wanted to join the single market but not the EU, while 10 percent were happy with the relationship as it was. At the start of 2025, after several months in office, the new government has not signalled any major change in direction regarding on this, but has broadly signalled it wants a better relationship with the EU.

According to a survey conducted between July 9 and July 11, 2022, 45 percent of Americans thought that Joe Biden was highly responsible for the current trend in the inflation rate. This is compared to 26 percent of Americans who said President Biden did not have a lot of responsibility for the current inflation rate.

Inflation in the U.S. Global events in 2022 had a significant impact on the United States. Inflation rose from 1.4 percent in January 2021 to 9.1 percent in June 2022. Significantly higher prices of basic goods led to increased concern over the state of the economy, and the ability to cover increasing monthly costs with the same income. Low interest rates, COVID-19-related supply constraints, corporate profiteering, and strong consumer spending had already put pressure on prices before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite rising wages on paper, the rapid growth of consumer prices resulted in an overall decline in real hourly earnings in the first half of 2022.

How much control does Joe Biden have over inflation? The bulk of economic performance and the inflation rate is determined by factors outside the President’s direct control, but U.S. presidents are often held accountable for it. Some of those factors are market forces, private business, productivity growth, the state of the global economy, and policies of the Federal Reserve. Although high-spending decisions such as the 2021 COVID-19 relief bill may have contributed to rising inflation rates, the bill has been seen by economists as a necessary intervention for preventing a recession at the time, as well as being of significant importance to low-income workers impacted by the pandemic.

The most important tool for curbing inflation and controlling the U.S. economy is the Federal Reserve. The Reserve has the ability to set, raise, and lower interest rates and determine the wider monetary policy for the United States – something out of the president’s control. In June 2022, the Reserve announced it would raise interest rates 0.75 percent for the second time that year – hoisting the rate to a target range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent – in an attempt to slow consumer demand and balance demand with supply. However, it can often take time before the impacts of interventions by the Federal Reserve are seen in the public’s day-to-day lives. Most economists expect this wave of inflation to pass in a year to 18 months.