As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.90% on July 29, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.18 points, though it remains 0.47 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.38% on July 30, 2025, marking a 0.05 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.14 points and is 0.34 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS5) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-07-24 about maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, 5-year, rate, and USA.

The yield on Canada 2 Year Bond Yield rose to 2.79% on July 30, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.12 points, though it remains 0.67 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Canada 2Y.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jul 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March, and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year, before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. In January 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented another cut, setting the rate at 4.33 percent, which remained unchanged throughout the following months. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate - from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April - mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

Canadian government bond yields mostly decreased between April 2024 and April 2025. For instance, the 2-year bond yield dropped from 4.22 percent to 2.57 percent, and the 30-year yield went from 3.63 percent to 3.44 percent. The decline in yields was consistent across both short- and long-term maturities during this period.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield eased to 2.68% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.11 points and is 0.43 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.74% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points, though it remains 0.39 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Australia 2 Year Bond Yield rose to 3.37% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.17 points, though it remains 0.49 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Australia 2 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

The yield on Germany 2 Year Bond Yield rose to 1.94% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points, though it remains 0.52 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 2 Year Schatz Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Net prime yields for warehouses in German cities increased for the second year in a row in 2023, after seven years of decline. From over six percent, the net prime yields for warehouses over 5,000 square meters dropped to three percent in 2021. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the net yield in all four major markets amounted to 4.25 percent. Among different European cities, Munich, Berlin, Hamburg, and Frankfurt had some of the lowest yields.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

The yield on India 10Y Bond Yield eased to 6.37% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.01 points, though it remains 0.54 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.47% on July 29, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.20 points and is 0.24 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Bank Prime Loan Rate Changes: Historical Dates of Changes and Rates (PRIME) from 1955-08-04 to 2024-12-20 about prime, loans, interest rate, banks, interest, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

Net prime yields for warehouses in German cities increased for the second year in a row in 2023, after seven years of decline. From over *** percent, the net prime yields for warehouses over ***** square meters dropped to ***** percent in 2021. In the first quarter of 2025, the net yield in all four major markets amounted to **** percent. Among different European cities, Munich, Berlin, Hamburg, and Frankfurt had some of the lowest yields.