This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

In 2025, President Trump announced plans to implement a universal baseline tariff of 10 percent. Estimates show that a 10 percent universal tariff on imported goods would raise U.S. revenue by 2.95 trillion U.S. dollars, while a 20 percent tariff would raise revenue by 2.62 trillion U.S. dollars. Comparatively, imports before Trump's proposed taxes would increase revenue by 3.28 trillion U.S. dollars. By enacting tariffs on all imports, significantly less foreign-produced goods would be purchased, thus decreasing the overall amount of imported goods.

Customs and other import duties (% of tax revenue) in United States was reported at 2.7662 % in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. United States - Customs and other import duties (% of tax revenue) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports (NA000324Q) from Q1 1947 to Q2 2025 about receipts, imports, tax, federal, production, government, GDP, and USA.

According to a scenario where the U.S. introduced higher tariff rates to its trading partners, the net income of luxury companies such as Burberry and Swatch could suffer significantly. The scenario assumed a ** percent tariff rate to Mexico and ** percent rate to China and the rest of the other countries.

According to new estimations, if the 2025 tariffs were to remain in place, they would put more of a strain on households with lower income than those with more. The estimated tariff burden on households in the *** income decile is almost **** times that of the top decile.

Introduction

The global semiconductor industry is currently facing significant challenges due to the imposition of tariffs, which have disrupted supply chains and increased production costs. These tariffs, particularly those introduced by the U.S. administration, have led to a reevaluation of manufacturing strategies across the sector. In 2025, the United States imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese semiconductor imports, prompting retaliatory tariffs of 125% from China. These measures have significantly strained the global semiconductor supply chain, leading to increased costs and uncertainties for manufacturers and consumers alike.

For instance, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has projected a revenue impact of $1.5 billion in 2025 due to new U.S. export restrictions on advanced AI chip shipments to China, a market that accounts for over 24% of AMD's revenue. Similarly, the German chip-equipment maker Suss MicroTec has warned that new U.S. tariffs could severely disrupt global semiconductor supply chains and potentially trigger a worldwide recession. These developments underscore the far-reaching implications of trade policies on the semiconductor industry, affecting not only corporate revenues but also the broader global economy.

Around 30% of businesses are currently adopting a wait-and-watch approach toward the ongoing uncertainty surrounding semiconductor tariffs. This cautious stance reflects growing concerns over supply chain unpredictability. In contrast, before the introduction of the Trump-era tariffs, nearly 61% of companies had already started reshaping their procurement strategies, actively exploring alternative suppliers. This shift was largely driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, evolving global trade policies, and new market barriers, all of which increased the complexity of international semiconductor trade. Businesses now demand greater transparency to make informed decisions in this rapidly changing environment.

If proposed tariffs of 25 percent on goods imported into the United States from Mexico and Canada were put into effect, tax revenue would be impacted. Tax revenue from Mexican wine imports are projected to increase by 108 million U.S. dollars while taxes from Mexican spirits imports would decrease by 1.4 billion dollars.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global Assembly Fastening Tools market size will be USD 3,514.2 million in 2025. It will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.00% from 2025 to 2033.

North America held the major market share for more than 37% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 1300.25 million in 2025 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% from 2025 to 2033.
Europe accounted for a market share of over 29% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 1019.12 million.
APAC held a market share of around 24% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 843.41 million in 2025 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7% from 2025 to 2033.
South America has a market share of more than 4% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 133.54 million in 2025 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% from 2025 to 2033.
Middle East had a market share of around 4% of the global revenue and was estimated at a market size of USD 140.57 million in 2025 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% from 2025 to 2033.
Africa had a market share of around 2.2% of the global revenue and was estimated at a market size of USD 77.31 million in 2025 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from 2025 to 2033.
Inline Tool is the fastest growing segment of the Assembly Fastening Tools industry

Market Dynamics of Assembly Fastening Tools Market

Key Drivers for Assembly Fastening Tools Market

Rising Demand from Automotive Industry Is Expected To Boost Market Growth

Automation is transforming automotive manufacturing, with robotic and smart fastening tools becoming integral to production lines. Automotive manufacturers are increasingly adopting torque-controlled and data-driven fastening systems to improve efficiency, reduce errors, and ensure consistency in mass production. The integration of fastening tools with Industry 4.0 technologies, such as IoT and AI-based monitoring, further enhances productivity by enabling real-time data collection and predictive maintenance. This technological advancement is crucial in maintaining the high production volumes required to meet the growing global demand for vehicles. Additionally, stringent safety and quality regulations in the automotive sector necessitate the use of high-performance fastening tools. Manufacturers must comply with international safety standards such as ISO, ensuring that fastened joints remain secure under extreme conditions, including vibrations and high-impact forces. As automakers continue to innovate with new vehicle designs, including lightweight structures and modular assembly techniques, the need for specialized fastening tools will continue to grow. In February 2025, Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Källenius voiced concerns over President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on the automotive industry, highlighting the company's substantial investments in the U.S. and the potential negative impact on both American and foreign car manufacturers.

https://www.the-sun.com/motors/13587592/mercedes-benz-ceo-fines-us-plans-trump-tariffs/

Growth in Aerospace and Defense Sector To Boost Market Growth

The aerospace and defense industry is one of the most demanding sectors when it comes to manufacturing precision, safety, and quality standards. Aircraft and defense equipment must meet strict regulatory requirements, necessitating the use of high-performance fastening tools for assembly and maintenance. Every component, from airframes and engines to avionics and interior structures, requires precise fastening solutions to ensure structural integrity, reliability, and resistance to extreme conditions such as high pressure, temperature fluctuations, and vibrations. This growing emphasis on quality and safety is driving the demand for advanced fastening tools designed specifically for aerospace and defense applications. In August 2023, the Pentagon's Space Development Agency awarded contracts totaling $1.5 billion to Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman for the development of 72 prototype communications satellites. These satellites are designed to provide encrypted communications for the U.S. military, forming part of the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture.

Restraint Factor for the Assembly Fastening Tools Market

High Initial Cost of Advanced Fastening Tools, Will Limit Market Growth

The ...

Entegris reports flat revenue for Q1 2025, impacted by U.S.-China tariffs and decreased demand, with a focus on strategic investments and market expansion.

The United States recorded a government budget surplus of 27000 USD Million in June of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Government Budget Value - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Global Bulk Carrier Ships market size was $374.24 Billion in 2022 and it is forecasted to reach $412.36 Billion by 2030. Bulk Carrier Ships Industry's Compound Annual Growth Rate will be 4.4% from 2023 to 2030. Factors Impacting on Bulk Carrier Ships Market

Rise in international trading

Trading and transportation across the borders have dramatically increased over the past few decades. Moreover, recent couple of decades have seen mounted growth in world economy. This trade growth is an ultimate result of both technological advancements and reduction in trade barriers. Almost every country is aggressively promoting economic development which is driving world trade to significantly grow every year with an average growth of 6%. International trade allows countries to expand their markets by providing goods and services to other countries. It thus allows countries to extend their markets and get access to items and services that are otherwise be unavailable in their home country. International commerce also leads to the increasing competitiveness. This integration thus helps in raising living standards across the world. Import, export, and entrepot activities are used in international trade. Currently, technological innovation, increased need for a variety of items, and rising desire for authentic products are all driving up international commercial activity. Bulk carrier ships play vital role in supply chain by carrying cargo across oceans linking borders across the globe. It is one of the most cost-effective ways to transfer large amounts of commodities throughout the world. Shipping and seaborne trade have enabled the transition from a world of separated territories to a globally linked community. Hence surging international trade drives the growth of bulk carrier’s market across the globe.

Restraining Factor of Bulk Carrier Ships market

Volatility in transportation cost and tensions in trade across borders may hamper the growth of market Volatility in the prices of fuels impacts pricing of the goods. Further, in case of global rise in the tariffs, high import prices hamper firm's production costs as well as purchasing power of customers. Further, stringent regulations, such as tracking orders, meeting promised timeline, determining liabilities, etc. associated with shipping goods across borders may hinder the growth of market. Moreover, unstable political parameters of any particular country also hamper the cargo shipping market. For instance, Russia-Ukraine war has impacted the shipping industry owing to the rise in the oil prices. Furthermore, ongoing U.S.-China tariff stand-off is also threatening trading across the borders. Hence, geopolitical crisis somehow hinders the growth of bulk carriers ships market.

Current Trends on Bulk Carrier Ships

Technological Improvement

Demand for coal, ores and cement has increased owing to the liberalization in global trade. This demand will keep on increasing and to meet the growing demand, developments have been made to offer solutions that can enable reduction in the transportation cost. Moreover, rise in the environment concern is aiming to reduce the impact of CO2 emissions from ships on marine culture by reducing the fuel consumption. Hence, new regulations have made in designing smaller ship size bulk carrier ship with engines meeting the demand for lower rpm in order to obtain an optimum ship design with highly efficient large propellers.

What is the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Bulk Carrier Ships Market?

Advent of COVID-19 in year 2020 has plunged international trade due to the reduction in production and distribution of goods. Initial period of pandemic has resulted in the double-digit decline of revenue from bulk carrier ship market. However, the second half of pandemic global trade started recovering at relatively faster pace facilitating a V-shaped graph. What are Bulk Carrier Ships?

Carrier ships are the integral link between the production and its consumption all across the globe. It thus plays very crucial part in connecting global economy. It has been estimated that almost 80% of global goods gets transported across oceans via ships. Though air freight is less time consuming, but the cost associated with it is too high in comparison to carrier ships. Further, carrier shipping allows heavy loads, as well as hazardous materials which brings flexibility in tra...

Harley-Davidson suspends annual forecasts due to U.S. tariff challenges, impacting revenue and market dynamics.

Graph and download economic data for Federal government current tax receipts (W006RC1Q027SBEA) from Q1 1947 to Q1 2025 about receipts, tax, federal, government, GDP, and USA.

TSMC's quarterly revenue jumps 42% due to AI demand, beating expectations as US tariffs approach. The company plans a US$100 billion US investment to boost domestic chip production.

US iron and steel manufacturers, who are estimated to generate $108.4 billion in revenue for 2025, face a complex financial landscape after several years of fluctuating performance. While the industry has demonstrated a current period growth of 3.7% CAGR, the current year growth is estimated at 3.6%. Lower revenues in recent years were linked to depressed steel prices, caused by oversupply, sluggish demand in the construction and automotive sectors, and import competition. However, early 2025 has seen an uptick in prices driven partly by tariffs on imported steel, providing a glimmer of hope for improved earnings and profit, even as stricter EPA regulations on air quality and hazardous pollutants raise compliance costs. Characterized by a mix of large integrated producers and smaller specialized mills, the industry's structure is being reshaped by tariffs on foreign steel. While tariffs are boosting domestic manufacturers by creating a more favorable environment for domestic investment and job creation, they are also driving up costs for downstream industries such as automakers and construction firms. These tariffs, imposed to protect domestic producers, have contributed to higher US steel prices, even as manufacturers navigate increasingly stringent environmental regulations. The EPA's tougher air quality standards, targeting emissions from steelmaking processes, require costly investments in new equipment and process upgrades. As a result, the industry faces a complex landscape of trade tensions and varying profit impacts across different sectors. Looking ahead, the industry is expected to see growth stimulated by projected expansion in the domestic economy and large-scale federal infrastructure investments. Government initiatives, particularly those tied to infrastructure projects with “Buy America” provisions, are expected to bolster demand for domestically produced steel. The industry is projected to achieve a 1.7% CAGR through 2030, reaching $117.8 billion in revenue. Rising demand for green steel will also accelerate technology investments and transform production processes. Steelmakers will need to invest in expanding capacity, modernizing facilities and adopting advanced manufacturing technologies to meet anticipated demand and comply with evolving environmental standards.

Stellantis projects a €2.3 billion net loss for the first half of 2025 due to U.S. tariffs and reduced vehicle shipments, impacting revenue significantly.

In a May 2025 survey, U.S. consumers were asked based on their income group whether they delayed purchases due to increased prices imposed by recent tariffs introduced by the Trump administration. Those in the lower income group were more likely to delay purchases.

Discover the implications of potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil imports and how the Trans Mountain Pipeline is poised to become a critical asset in optimizing Canada's oil export routes, especially toward Asian markets.

Hyundai Motor's Q2 operating profit fell by 16% due to U.S. tariffs, even as revenue rose by 7%. The company's shares dropped 3.2% amid tariff concerns.