United States Economic Optimism Index data was reported at 49.100 NA in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 49.800 NA for Mar 2025. United States Economic Optimism Index data is updated monthly, averaging 48.600 NA from Feb 2001 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 291 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 62.900 NA in Mar 2002 and a record low of 35.800 NA in Aug 2011. United States Economic Optimism Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S027: Economic Optimism Index. [COVID-19-IMPACT]

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

United States CA: saar: NNI: PI: Reinvested Earnings on US Direct Invt Abroad data was reported at -740.727 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 352.446 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States CA: saar: NNI: PI: Reinvested Earnings on US Direct Invt Abroad data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.000 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 352.446 USD bn in Dec 2017 and a record low of -740.727 USD bn in Mar 2018. United States CA: saar: NNI: PI: Reinvested Earnings on US Direct Invt Abroad data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB073: Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts: Total Economy: Current Account.

Description: This dataset contains historical economic data spanning from 1871 to 2024, used in Jaouad Karfali’s research on Economic Cycle Analysis with Numerical Time Cycles. The study aims to improve economic forecasting accuracy through the 9-year cycle model, which demonstrates superior predictive capabilities compared to traditional economic indicators.

Dataset Contents: The dataset includes a comprehensive range of economic indicators used in the research, such as:

USGDP_1871-2024.csv – U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. USCPI_cleaned.csv – U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), cleaned and processed. USWAGE_1871-2024.csv – U.S. average wages data. EXCHANGEGLOBAL_cleaned.csv – Global exchange rates for the U.S. dollar. EXCHANGEPOUND_cleaned.csv – U.S. dollar to British pound exchange rates. INTERESTRATE_1871-2024.csv – U.S. interest rate data. UNRATE.csv – U.S. unemployment rate statistics. POPTOTUSA647NWDB.csv – U.S. total population data. Significance of the Data: This dataset serves as a foundation for a robust economic analysis of the U.S. economy over multiple decades. It was instrumental in testing the 9-year economic cycle model, which demonstrated an 85% accuracy rate in economic forecasting when compared to traditional models such as ARIMA and VAR.

Applications:

Economic Forecasting: Predicts a 1.5% decline in GDP in 2025, followed by a gradual recovery between 2026-2034. Economic Stability Analysis: Used for comparing forecasts with estimates from institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Academic and Institutional Research: Supports studies in economic cycles and long-term forecasting. Source & Further Information: For more details on the methodology and research findings, refer to the full paper published on SSRN:

https://ssrn.com/author=7429208 https://orcid.org/0009-0002-9626-7289

• Jaouad Karfali

United States US: GDP: Growth: Gross Value Added: Services data was reported at 2.621 % in 2015. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.221 % for 2014. United States US: GDP: Growth: Gross Value Added: Services data is updated yearly, averaging 2.335 % from Dec 1998 (Median) to 2015, with 18 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.456 % in 1999 and a record low of -1.772 % in 2009. United States US: GDP: Growth: Gross Value Added: Services data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.World Bank: Gross Domestic Product: Annual Growth Rate. Annual growth rate for value added in services based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Services correspond to ISIC divisions 50-99. They include value added in wholesale and retail trade (including hotels and restaurants), transport, and government, financial, professional, and personal services such as education, health care, and real estate services. Also included are imputed bank service charges, import duties, and any statistical discrepancies noted by national compilers as well as discrepancies arising from rescaling. Value added is the net output of a sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources. The industrial origin of value added is determined by the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), revision 3.; ; World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.; Weighted Average; Note: Data for OECD countries are based on ISIC, revision 4.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data, PIIE Policy Brief 25-5.

If you use the data, please cite as:

Kolko, Jed. 2025. As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data. PIIE Policy Brief 25-5. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

This graph shows a forecast of the gross domestic product of the United States of America for fiscal years 2024 to 2034. GDP refers to the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. According to the CBO, the United States GDP will increase steadily over the next decade from 28.18 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023 to 41.65 trillion U.S. dollars in 2034. The annual GDP of the United States for recent years can be found here. Also, view the monthly inflation rate for the country.

Graph and download economic data for Trade Balance: Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis (BOPGSTB) from Jan 1992 to Jul 2025 about BOP, balance, headline figure, trade, goods, services, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator (GDPDEF) from Q1 1947 to Q2 2025 about implicit price deflator, headline figure, inflation, GDP, and USA.

In 2021, the agriculture sector contributed around 0.94 percent to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States. In that same year, 17.61 percent came from industry, and the service sector contributed the most to the GDP, at 76.4 percent.

Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Median (GDPC1MDLR) from 2015-06-17 to 2025-06-18 about projection, median, real, GDP, rate, and USA.

United States Consumer Confidence: Current Index data was reported at 38.471 Index in Jan 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 38.436 Index for Dec 2022. United States Consumer Confidence: Current Index data is updated monthly, averaging 46.474 Index from Jan 2002 (Median) to Jan 2023, with 253 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 57.063 Index in May 2018 and a record low of 27.208 Index in Mar 2009. United States Consumer Confidence: Current Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ipsos Group S.A.. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.IPSOS: Consumer Confidence Survey.

United States US: GDP: USD: Gross National Income data was reported at 19,607.598 USD bn in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 18,968.714 USD bn for 2016. United States US: GDP: USD: Gross National Income data is updated yearly, averaging 5,447.032 USD bn from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 19,607.598 USD bn in 2017 and a record low of 546.400 USD bn in 1960. United States US: GDP: USD: Gross National Income data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.World Bank: Gross Domestic Product: Nominal. GNI (formerly GNP) is the sum of value added by all resident producers plus any product taxes (less subsidies) not included in the valuation of output plus net receipts of primary income (compensation of employees and property income) from abroad. Data are in current U.S. dollars.; ; World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.; Gap-filled total;

United States USD Trade Weighted Index: Nominal: Other Important Trading Partner data was reported at 168.237 Jan1997=100 in Nov 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 166.528 Jan1997=100 for Oct 2018. United States USD Trade Weighted Index: Nominal: Other Important Trading Partner data is updated monthly, averaging 96.825 Jan1997=100 from Jan 1973 (Median) to Nov 2018, with 551 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 168.237 Jan1997=100 in Nov 2018 and a record low of 1.998 Jan1997=100 in Jul 1973. United States USD Trade Weighted Index: Nominal: Other Important Trading Partner data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M016: US Dollar Trade Weighted Index.

United States CA: saar: Plus: Other Current Transfers Received data was reported at 864.129 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 834.249 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States CA: saar: Plus: Other Current Transfers Received data is updated quarterly, averaging 201.663 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6,053.000 USD bn in Dec 1958 and a record low of 5.267 USD bn in Mar 1959. United States CA: saar: Plus: Other Current Transfers Received data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB073: Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts: Total Economy: Current Account.

Key information about United States New Orders Growth

• United States New Orders increased 3.2 % YoY in Jan 2025, compared with a drop of 0.9 % in the previous month
• US New Orders Growth data is updated monthly, available from Feb 1993 to Jan 2025, with an average YoY change of 3.8 %
• The data reached an all-time high of 39.3 % in Apr 2021 and a record low of -30.0 % in Apr 2009

United States New York Stock Exchange: Index: US 100 Index data was reported at 16,491.357 NA in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 16,852.600 NA for Mar 2025. United States New York Stock Exchange: Index: US 100 Index data is updated monthly, averaging 10,169.600 NA from Jan 2012 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 160 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17,440.815 NA in Feb 2025 and a record low of 5,695.000 NA in May 2012. United States New York Stock Exchange: Index: US 100 Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Exchange Data International Limited. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.EDI.SE: New York Stock Exchange: Monthly.

United States Avg Weekly Earnings: IF: Book Publishers data was reported at 1,539.340 USD in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1,571.390 USD for Feb 2025. United States Avg Weekly Earnings: IF: Book Publishers data is updated monthly, averaging 1,060.630 USD from Mar 2006 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 229 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,610.370 USD in Oct 2022 and a record low of 765.740 USD in Mar 2006. United States Avg Weekly Earnings: IF: Book Publishers data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G: Current Employment Statistics: Average Weekly Earnings.

United States WE: Full Time: SO: Male data was reported at 962.000 USD in Mar 2020. This records an increase from the previous number of 886.000 USD for Dec 2019. United States WE: Full Time: SO: Male data is updated quarterly, averaging 737.000 USD from Mar 2000 (Median) to Mar 2020, with 81 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 962.000 USD in Mar 2020 and a record low of 589.000 USD in Sep 2000. United States WE: Full Time: SO: Male data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G030: Current Population Survey: Usual Weekly Earnings.

United States WE: Age 25 & Over: BH: First Decile data was reported at 661.000 USD in Mar 2020. This records a decrease from the previous number of 669.000 USD for Dec 2019. United States WE: Age 25 & Over: BH: First Decile data is updated quarterly, averaging 557.000 USD from Mar 2000 (Median) to Mar 2020, with 81 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 669.000 USD in Dec 2019 and a record low of 444.000 USD in Jun 2000. United States WE: Age 25 & Over: BH: First Decile data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G030: Current Population Survey: Usual Weekly Earnings.