The UK inflation rate was 3.4 percent in May 2025, down from 3.5 percent in the previous month, and the fastest rate of inflation since February 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years. As of the most recent month, prices were rising fastest in the communications sector, at 6.1 percent, but were falling in both the furniture and transport sectors, at -0.3 percent and -0.6 percent respectively.
The Cost of Living Crisis
High inflation is one of the main factors behind the ongoing Cost of Living Crisis in the UK, which, despite subsiding somewhat in 2024, is still impacting households going into 2025. In December 2024, for example, 56 percent of UK households reported their cost of living was increasing compared with the previous month, up from 45 percent in July, but far lower than at the height of the crisis in 2022. After global energy prices spiraled that year, the UK's energy price cap increased substantially. The cap, which limits what suppliers can charge consumers, reached 3,549 British pounds per year in October 2022, compared with 1,277 pounds a year earlier. Along with soaring food costs, high-energy bills have hit UK households hard, especially lower income ones that spend more of their earnings on housing costs. As a result of these factors, UK households experienced their biggest fall in living standards in decades in 2022/23.
Global inflation crisis causes rapid surge in prices
The UK's high inflation, and cost of living crisis in 2022 had its origins in the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the initial waves of the virus, global supply chains struggled to meet the renewed demand for goods and services. Food and energy prices, which were already high, increased further in 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought an end to the era of cheap gas flowing to European markets from Russia. The war also disrupted global food markets, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of cereal crops. As a result of these factors, inflation surged across Europe and in other parts of the world, but typically declined in 2023, and approached more usual levels by 2024.
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Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom decreased to 3.40 percent in May from 3.50 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
In 2024, the annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom was 2.5 percent, with the average rate for 2025 predicted to rise to 3.2 percent, revised upwards from an earlier prediction of 2.6 percent. The UK has only recently recovered from a period of elevated inflation, which saw the CPI rate reach 9.1 percent in 2022, and 7.3 percent in 2023. Despite an uptick in inflation expected in 2025, the inflation rate is expected to fall to 2.1 percent in 2026, and two percent between 2027 and 2029. UK inflation crisis Between 2021 and 2023, inflation surged in the UK, reaching a 41-year-high of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell to more usual levels by 2024, prices in the UK had already increased by over 20 percent relative to the start of the crisis. The two main drivers of price increases during this time were food and energy inflation, two of the main spending areas of UK households. Although food and energy prices came down quite sharply in 2023, underlying core inflation, which measures prices rises without food and energy, remained slightly above the headline inflation rate throughout 2024, suggesting some aspects of inflation had become embedded in the UK economy. Inflation rises across in the world in 2022 The UK was not alone in suffering from runaway inflation over the last few years. From late 2021 onwards, various factors converged to encourage a global acceleration of prices, leading to the ongoing inflation crisis. Blocked-up supply chains were one of the main factors as the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. This was followed by energy and food inflation skyrocketing after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Central bank interest rates were raised globally in response to the problem, possibly putting an end to the era of cheap money that has defined monetary policy since the financial crash of 2008.
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Core consumer prices in the United Kingdom increased 3.50 percent in May of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
The inflation rate for the Retail Price Index (RPI) in the United Kingdom was 4.3 percent in May 2025, down from 4.5 percent in the previous month. From 2021 onwards, prices in the UK rose rapidly, with the RPI inflation rate peaking at 14.2 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell in subsequent months, it wasn't until July 2023 that inflation fell below double digits, and as of late 2024, the RPI rate was still above three percent. The CPI and CPIH While the retail price index is still a popular method of calculating inflation, the consumer price index (CPI) is the current main measurement of inflation in the UK. There is also an additional price index, which includes some extra housing costs, known as the Consumer Price Index including homer occupiers' costs (CPIH) index, which is seen by the UK's Office of National Statistics as the official inflation rate. As of December 2024, the CPI inflation rate stood at 2.5 percent, while the CPIH rate was 3.5 percent. Core inflation down in 2024 Another way of measuring inflation is to strip out the volatility of energy and food prices and look at the underlying core inflation rate. As of December 2024, this was 3.2 percent, slightly higher than the overall CPI rate, but more aligned with the overall figure than it was in 2022 and 2023. When inflation peaked at 11.2 percent in October 2022, for example, core inflation stood at just 6.5 percent. After energy prices in 2023 fell relative to 2022, the overall inflation rate in the UK declined quite rapidly, with core inflation overtaking the overall rate in July 2023. During the most recent period of high inflation, core inflation peaked at 7.1 percent in May 2023, and while taking longer to fall than the overall figure, has generally been declining since then.
Between January 2018 and May 2025, the United Kingdom's consumer price inflation rate showed notable volatility. The rate hit its lowest point at *** percent in August 2020 and peaked at *** percent in October 2022. By September 2024, inflation had moderated to *** percent, but the following months saw inflation increase again. The Bank of England's interest rate policy closely tracked these inflationary trends. Rates remained low at -* percent until April 2020, when they were reduced to *** percent in response to economic challenges. A series of rate increases followed, reaching a peak of **** percent from August 2023 to July 2024. The central bank then initiated rate cuts in August and November 2024, lowering the rate to **** percent, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. In February 2025, the Bank of England implemented another rate cut, setting the bank rate at *** percent, which was further reduced to **** percent in May 2025. Global context of inflation and interest rates The UK's experience reflects a broader international trend of rising inflation and subsequent central bank responses. From January 2022 to July 2024, advanced and emerging economies alike increased their policy rates to counter inflationary pressures. However, a shift began in late 2024, with many countries, including the UK, starting to lower rates. This change suggests a potential new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Comparison with other major economies The UK's monetary policy decisions align closely with those of other major economies. The United States, for instance, saw its federal funds rate peak at **** percent in August 2023, mirroring the UK's rate trajectory. Similarly, central bank rates in the EU all increased drastically between 2022 and 2024. These synchronized movements reflect the global nature of inflationary pressures and the coordinated efforts of central banks to maintain economic stability. As with the UK, both the U.S. and EU began considering rate cuts in late 2024, signaling a potential shift in the global economic landscape.
In April 2025, the UK inflation rate was 3.5 percent, with prices rising fastest in the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels sector, which had an inflation rate of 7.8 percent. In this month, prices were rising in all sectors, except for in the clothing and footwear, and furniture sectors. UK inflation falls in 2024 After reaching a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022, the CPI inflation rate in the UK gradually declined over several months, falling to a low of 1.7 percent by August 2024. An uptick in inflation has occurred since that month, however, and by the end of the year inflation was at 2.5 percent above the Bank of England's target rate of 2 percent. Going into 2025, recent forecasts suggest that over the course of the year, inflation will average out at 2.6 percent, with the 2 percent target not met on an annual basis until at least 2029. Roots of the inflation crisis This long period of high inflation that the UK and much of the world experienced had its roots in the post-pandemic economic recovery of 2021. During that year, as consumer demand returned, global supply chains struggled to return to full capacity, resulting in prices rising. With inflation already elevated going into 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine added even more inflationary pressures to the global economy. European markets which were heavily reliant on Russian oil and gas gradually phased out hydrocarbons from their economies. Food prices were also heavily impacted due to Ukraine's difficulty in exporting its agricultural products.
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The Consumer Price Index in the United Kingdom increased 0.20 percent in May of 2025 over the previous month. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate MoM - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2024 and 2025, as well as medium-term forecasts from 2024 to 2028, and financial year 2024-25 to 2028-29.
In May 2025, the UK inflation rate for goods was two percent and 4.7 percent for services. Prices for goods accelerated significantly, sharply between in 2021 and 2022 before falling in 2023. By comparison, prices for services initially grew at a more moderate rate, but have also not fallen as quickly. The overall CPI inflation rate for the UK reached a recent high of 11.1 percent in October 2022 and remained in double-figures until April 2023, when it fell to 8.7 percent. As of this month, the UK's inflation rate was 2.6 percent, down from 2.8 percent in the previous month. Sectors driving high inflation In late 2024, communication was the sector with the highest inflation rate, with prices increasing by 6.1 percent as of December 2024. During the recent period of high inflation that eased in 2023, food and energy prices were particular high, with housing and energy inflation far higher than in any other sector, peaking at 26.6 percent towards the end of 2022. High food and energy prices since 2021 have been one of the main causes of the cost of living crisis in the UK, especially for low-income households that spend a higher share of their income on these categories. This is likely one of the factors driving increasing food bank usage in the UK, which saw approximately 3.12 million people use a food bank in 2023/24, compared with 1.9 million just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The global inflation crisis The UK has not been alone in suffering rapid price increases since 2021. After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of economic and geopolitical shocks had a dramatic impact on the global economy. A global supply chain crisis failed to meet rising demand in 2021, leading to the beginning of an Inflation Crisis, which was only exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war directly influenced the prices of food and energy, as both countries were major exporters of important crops. European imports of hydrocarbons from Russia were also steadily reduced throughout 2022 and 2023, resulting in higher energy prices throughout the year.
In May 2025, the Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) inflation rate of the United Kingdom was **** percent, down from *** percent in the previous month. The inflation rate fell noticeably after the COVID-19 pandemic, but rose sharply between Spring 2021 and Autumn 2022. After peaking at *** percent in October 2022, CPIH inflation declined throughout 2023 and into 2024, falling to *** percent by September of that year, before increasing again recently. Cost of living problems persist into 2025 Although it is likely that the worst of the recent inflation surge may have passed, the issues caused by it look set to linger into 2025 and beyond. While the share of households experiencing living cost rises has fallen from ** percent in August 2022, to ** percent in July 2024, this share rose towards the end of the year, with more than half of households reporting rising costs in December. Even with lower inflation, overall consumer prices have already increased by around ** percent in the last three years, rising to almost ** percent for food prices, which lower income households typically spend more of their income on. The significant increase in people relying on food banks across the UK, is evidence of the magnitude of this problem, with approximately **** million people using food banks in 2023/**. Other measure of inflation While the CPIH inflation rate displayed here is the preferred index of the UK's Office of National Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is often more prominently featured in the media in general. An older index, the Retail Price Index (RPI) is also still used by the government to calculate certain taxes, and rail fare rises. Other metrics include the core inflation rate, which measures prices increases without the volatility of food and energy costs, while price increases in goods and services can also be tracked separately. The inflation rate of individual sectors can also be measured, and as of December 2024, prices were rising fastest in the communications sector, at *** percent, with costs falling in the transport and furniture sectors.
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This dataset provides values for INFLATION RATE reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.
In the three months to April 2025, average weekly earnings in the United Kingdom grew by 5.2 percent, while pay including bonuses grew by 5.3 percent, when compared with the same period leading to April 2024. In the same month, the inflation rate for the Consumer Price Index was 3.5 percent, indicating that wages were rising faster than prices that month. Average salaries in the UK In 2024, the average salary for full-time workers in the UK was 37,430 British pounds a year, up from 34,963 in the previous year. In London, the average annual salary was far higher than the rest of the country, at 47,455 pounds per year, compared with just 32,960 in North East England. There also still exists a noticeable gender pay gap in the UK, which was seven percent for full-time workers in 2024, down from 7.5 percent in 2023. Lastly, the monthly earnings of the top one percent in the UK was 15,887 pounds as of November 2024, far higher than even that of the average for the top five percent, who earned 7,641 pounds per month, while pay for the lowest 10 percent of earners was just 805 pounds per month. Waves of industrial action in the UK One of the main consequences of high inflation and low wage growth throughout 2022 and 2023 was an increase in industrial action in the UK. In December 2022, for example, there were approximately 830,000 working days lost due to labor disputes. Throughout this month, workers across various industry sectors were involved in industrial disputes, such as nurses, train drivers, and driving instructors. Many of the workers who took part in strikes were part of the UK's public sector, which saw far weaker wage growth than that of the private sector throughout 2022. Widespread industrial action continued into 2023, with approximately 303,000 workers involved in industrial disputes in March 2023. There was far less industrial action by 2024, however, due to settlements in many of the disputes, although some are ongoing as of 2025.
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Summary of UK House Price Index (HPI) price statistics covering England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Full UK HPI data are available on GOV.UK.
Inflation is an important measure of any country’s economy, and the Retail Price Index (RPI) is one of the most widely used indicators in the United Kingdom, with the rate expected to be 4.1 percent in 2025, compared with 3.6 percent in 2024. This followed 2022, when RPI inflation reached a rate of 11.6 percent, by far the highest annual rate during this provided time period. CPI vs RPI Although the Retail Price Index is a commonly utilized inflation indicator, the UK also uses a newer method of calculating inflation, the Consumer Price Index. The CPI, along with the CPIH (Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers' housing costs) are usually preferred by the UK government, but the RPI is still used in certain instances. Increases in rail fares for example, are calculated using the RPI, while increases in pension payments are calculated using CPI, when this is used as the uprating factor. The use of one inflation measure over the other can therefore have a significant impact on people’s lives in the UK. High inflation falls to more typical levels by 2024 Like the Retail Price Index, the Consumer Price Index inflation rate also reached a recent peak in October 2022. In that month, prices were rising by 11.1 percent and did not fall below double figures until April 2023. This fall was largely due to slower price increases in key sectors such as energy, which drove a significant amount of the 2022 wave of inflation. Inflation nevertheless remains elevated, fueled not only by high food inflation, but also by underlying core inflation. As of February 2025, the overall CPI inflation rate was 2.8 percent, although an uptick in inflation is expected later in the year, with a rate of 3.7 percent forecast for the third quarter of the year.
In April 2025, the UK minimum wage for adults over the age of 21 in will be 12.21 pounds per hour. For the 2025/26 financial year, there will be four minimum wage categories, three of which are based on age and one for apprentice workers. Apprentices, and workers under the age of 18 will have a minimum wage of 7.55 pounds an hour, increasing to ten pounds for those aged 18 to 20. When the minimum wage was first introduced in 1999, there were just two age categories; 18 to 21, and 22 and over. This increased to three categories in 2004, four in 2010, and five between 2016 and 2023, before being reduced down to four in the most recent year. The living wage The living wage is an alternative minimum wage amount that employers in the UK can voluntarily pay their employees. It is calculated independently of the legal minimum wage and results in a higher value figure. In 2023/24, for example, the living wage was twelve pounds an hour for the UK as a whole and 13.15 for workers in London, where the cost of living is typically higher. This living wage is different from what the UK government has named the national living wage, which was 10.42 in the same financial year. Between 2011/12 and 2023/24, the living wage has increased by 4.80 pounds, while the London living wage has grown by 4.85 pounds. Wage growth cancelled-out by high inflation 2021-2023 For a long period between the middle of 2021 and late 2023, average wage growth in the UK was unable to keep up with record inflation levels, resulting in the biggest fall in disposable income since 1956. Although the UK government attempted to mitigate the impact of falling living standards through a series of cost of living payments, the situation has still been very difficult for households. After peaking at 11.1 percent in October 2022, the UK's inflation rate remained in double figures until March 2023, and did not fall to the preferred rate of two percent until May 2024. As of November 2024, regular weekly pay in the UK was growing by 5.6 percent in nominal terms, and 2.5 percent when adjusted for inflation.
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Retail Price Index in the United Kingdom increased to 4.50 percent in April from 3.20 percent in March of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Retail Price Index YoY- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
The core inflation rate for the UK was 3.5 percent in May 2025, down from 3.8 percent in the previous month. Core inflation measures inflation without food and energy prices, which can be far more volatile than inflation for other goods and services.
In 2025, it is predicted that average earnings in the United Kingdom will increase by 4.3 percent, compared with a growth rate of 4.7 percent in 2024, and 7.6 percent in 2023, the fastest average earnings growth in this time period. By contrast, average earnings did not grow at all in 2020, in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Earnings vs inflation Although earnings grew at their fastest pace between 2021 and 2023 in this provided time period, this was offset by the period of very high inflation that occurred alongside it. This reached a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022, with inflation only reaching the typical target rate of two percent in May 2024. Despite strong wage growth, the average UK worker saw their earnings fall relative to inflation between November 2021 and May 2023. As of January 2024, weekly wages in the UK were still growing faster than inflation, at two percent for regular pay and 1.7 percent for pay including bonuses. Full-time earnings reach over 37,000 GBP in 2024 Full-time employees in the United Kingdom earned an average annual salary of 37,430 British pounds in 2024, compared with just over 34,963 in the previous year. As of this year, men reported higher earnings than women did, with the UK reporting a gender pay gap of 13.1 percent for 2024, compared with 27.5 percent in 1997. Workers in their 40s had the highest average earnings by age group, at approximately 56,000 for men, and 44,000 for women. Although men earned more than women in all age groups, this gap was smallest among workers aged 18 to 21.
The Retail Price Index (RPI) is one of the main measures of inflation used to calculate the change in the price of goods and services within the British economy. In the first quarter of 2025 the index value was 393.7, indicating that the price for a fixed basket of goods had increased by almost 294 percent since 1987. The RPI inflation rate for March 2025 was 3.2 percent, down from 3.4 percent in the previous month. Inflation and UK living standards For UK consumers, high inflation is one of the main drivers of the ongoing cost of living crisis. With wages struggling to keep up with the pace of inflation for a long period between 2021 and 2023, UK households saw their living standards fall significantly. In 2022/23, real household disposable income in the UK is estimated to have fallen by 2.1 percent, which was the biggest fall in living standards since 1956. While there have been some signals that the crisis eased somewhat in 2024, such as falling energy and food inflation, an increasing share of UK households have reported increasing living costs since Summer 2024. Additional inflation indicators Aside from the Retail Price Index, the UK also produces other inflation indices such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH). While these particular indices measure consumer price increases slightly differently, they both provide an overall picture of rising prices. More specific inflation rates, such as by sector, are also produced, while other indices omit certain items, such as core inflation, which excludes food and energy inflation, to provide a more stable measure of inflation.
The UK inflation rate was 3.4 percent in May 2025, down from 3.5 percent in the previous month, and the fastest rate of inflation since February 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years. As of the most recent month, prices were rising fastest in the communications sector, at 6.1 percent, but were falling in both the furniture and transport sectors, at -0.3 percent and -0.6 percent respectively.
The Cost of Living Crisis
High inflation is one of the main factors behind the ongoing Cost of Living Crisis in the UK, which, despite subsiding somewhat in 2024, is still impacting households going into 2025. In December 2024, for example, 56 percent of UK households reported their cost of living was increasing compared with the previous month, up from 45 percent in July, but far lower than at the height of the crisis in 2022. After global energy prices spiraled that year, the UK's energy price cap increased substantially. The cap, which limits what suppliers can charge consumers, reached 3,549 British pounds per year in October 2022, compared with 1,277 pounds a year earlier. Along with soaring food costs, high-energy bills have hit UK households hard, especially lower income ones that spend more of their earnings on housing costs. As a result of these factors, UK households experienced their biggest fall in living standards in decades in 2022/23.
Global inflation crisis causes rapid surge in prices
The UK's high inflation, and cost of living crisis in 2022 had its origins in the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the initial waves of the virus, global supply chains struggled to meet the renewed demand for goods and services. Food and energy prices, which were already high, increased further in 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought an end to the era of cheap gas flowing to European markets from Russia. The war also disrupted global food markets, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of cereal crops. As a result of these factors, inflation surged across Europe and in other parts of the world, but typically declined in 2023, and approached more usual levels by 2024.